Geoengineering With Climate Will Bring Unpredictable World Crisis
By Countercurrents.org
09 January, 2013
Countercurrents.org
There are warnings: There could be climate-hijack by some party; geoengineering to manipulate climate could lead to an unpredictable world crisis; and temperature in the Middle East could rise up to 6 degrees. The region will experience lower rainfall, higher temperatures and continuing desertification.
John Vidal reported [1]:
The climate could be hijacked by a rogue country or wealthy individual firing small particles into the stratosphere, claims a warning that comes not from a new Hollywood movie trailer but a sober report from the World Economic Forum (WEF).
The deployment of independent, large-scale "geoengineering" techniques aimed at averting dangerous warming warrants more research because it could lead to an international crisis with unpredictable costs to agriculture, infrastructure and global stability, said the Geneva-based WEF in its annual Global Risks report before the Davos economic summit later this month.
It also warned that ongoing economic weakness is sapping the ability of governments to tackle the growing threat of climate change.
"The global climate could, in effect, be hijacked. For example, an island state threatened with rising sea levels may decide they have nothing to lose, or a well-funded individual with good intentions may take matters into their own hands," the report notes. It said there are "signs that this is already starting to occur", highlighting the case of a story broken by the Guardian involving the dumping of 100 tonnes of iron sulphate off the Canadian coast in 2012, in a bid to spawn plankton and capture carbon.
The top two global risks identified for the WEF by more than 1,000 business leaders and experts were the growing wealth gap between rich and poor and a major financial economic crisis. But the next three on the list of 50 were environmental, including climate change, and water and food supply crises.
Lee Howell, the editor of the WEF report, said: "[R]espondents rated rising greenhouse gas emissions as the third most likely global risk overall, while the failure of climate change adaptation is seen as the environmental risk with the most knock-on effects for the next decade. These global risks are essentially a health warning regarding our most critical systems. With the growing cost of events like superstorm Sandy, huge threats to island nations and coastal communities, and no resolution to greenhouse gas emissions, the writing is on the wall. It is time to act."
The economic costs associated with extreme weather and climate change should make governments act, suggests the WEF. "Recent climate and weather events have reminded us of the economic and human cost of the kind of natural disasters that we know are likely to become more frequent and severe as climate continues to change. The estimated economic cost of the 2011 Thailand floods, for example, was $15-20bn and hurricane Katrina $125bn; meanwhile, the 2003 European heatwave resulted in more than 35,000 fatalities and the Horn of Africa droughts in 2011 claimed tens of thousands of lives and threatened the livelihoods of 9.5 million people."
According to the report, the cumulative economic cost of changes to the physical environment as well as health and food security from climate change, range from US$2 trillion to $4tn by 2030.
The authors fear that climate change could become a centre of litigation. "Although the Alaskan village of Kivalina – which faces being "wiped out" by the changing climate – was unsuccessful in its attempts to file a $400m lawsuit against oil and coal companies, future plaintiffs may be more successful. Five decades ago, the US tobacco industry would not have suspected that in 1997 it would agree to pay $368bn in health-related damages. For some businesses, investing in climate change mitigation now could be as much about enterprise risk management as about mitigating a global risk."
Temperature rise in Middle East
Laurence Caramel reported [2]:
Countries in the Middle East and north Africa will be among those hardest hit by global warming, unless the upward trend for GHG emissions can be checked, the World Bank warned last month at the Doha climate conference.
There will be lower rainfall, higher temperatures and continuing desertification, said Rachel Kyte, World Bank vice-president for sustainable development, during her presentation of the report on Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries.
According to the forecasts, average temperatures could rise by 3C between now and 2050. But night temperatures in city centres could increase by double that figure. The report notes that over the last three decades 50 million people have been affected by climate disasters. Severe flooding is now a recurrent event. But the increasing scarcity of water resources is the biggest challenge for countries in the region, which already have some of the lowest per capita reserves in the world.
Kuwait and Qatar depend on desalination plants for almost 40% of their needs. With demand for water forecast to increase by 60% over the next 30 years, due to population growth and changing ways of life, the World Bank fears there is a high risk of shortages and conflict. Measures to adapt to climate change are still limited, even if a regional strategy for reducing the risks of natural disasters has been adopted.
The lack of reliable data is a stumbling block for any preventive measures. The launch of a research centre, announced by Qatar last month, could help remedy this situation.
However, this positive move will not be enough to cover up the fact that Qatar, much as the other oil-producing countries in the Gulf, has still not made any commitment as part of the UN climate talks.
Saudi Arabia – though it refutes this suggestion – continues to play along with those angling for a business-as-usual agreement.
"We take climate change seriously and will reduce our CO2 emissions," said an adviser to the Saudi oil minister, citing the kingdom's plans for carbon capture and storage facilities, and measures to boost energy-efficiency and develop solar power. "The world will not be able to do without fossil fuels in the coming decades. We aim to produce 'climate-friendly' oil and gas that cause less pollution."
Financial and ecological collapse
Larry Elliott, economics editor, The Guardian reported [3]:
Persistent economic weakness is sapping the ability of governments to tackle the growing threat of climate change and risks a global "perfect storm" of intertwined financial and ecological collapse, the World Economic Forum has warned.
In the report, of those risks considered likely to have the biggest impact on the global community a major systemic financial failure and a water supply crisis were again deemed to be the most serious, followed by chronic fiscal imbalances, food shortages and the spread of weapons of mass destruction.
Lee Howell, the Global Risks report's editor, said the fact that the key risks in 2013 were the same as they had been in 2012 reflected a sense that policymakers were failing to get to grips with the threats. "There is a feeling that we are not making progress", he said at the launch of the report in London. "We are not seeing the state leadership necessary to tackle these risks."
While praising the attempts by countries such as Switzerland, Singapore, Australia and China to improve their resilience, the WEF said the immediate challenge of coping with economic problems was making governments reluctant to address the long-term threat of climate change.
The report said:
"On the environmental front, the Earth's resilience is being tested by rising global temperatures and extreme weather events that are likely to become more frequent and severe. A sudden and massive collapse on one front is certain to doom the other's chances of developing an effective, long-term solution."
Source:
[1] guardian.co.uk, “Rogue geoengineering could 'hijack' world's climate”, Jan 8, 2013, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/jan/08/geoengineering-hijack-world-climate
[2] Guardian Weekly, “Temperatures to rise by six degrees in Middle East countries”, Jan 8, 2013, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/jan/08/middle-east-temperature-rise-climate This story appeared in Guardian Weekly, which incorporates material from Le Monde
[3] The Guardian, “Climate change, debt and inequality 'threaten financial stability'”, Jan 8, 2013,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/jan/08/climate-change-debt-inequality-threat-financial-stability
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