BZE ZCA2020 Plan & Why Developing World Must Go For
100% Renewable Energy by 2020
By Dr Gideon Polya
18 July, 2010
Countercurrents.org
Although the Developing World ranks very low in terms of annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution (well below even the Developed World's average), it is acutely threatened by man-made global warming (particularly from increasing heat stress, drought, storm intensity, glacier melting and sea level rise) . However top climate scientists say that we must reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) from the present dangerous and damaging 390 parts per million (ppm) to a safe and sustainable 300 ppm. This means a transition not merely to “zero CO2 emissions” but to “negative CO2 emissions” – the CO2 in the atmosphere must be drawn down.
Accordingly, even Developing Countries must urgently reduce their per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution from industry and land use. In the recently launched Beyond Zero Emissions (BZE) Australian Sustainable Energy Zero Carbon Australia Stationary Energy Plan for 2020 (ZCA2020) a big volunteer team of Australian engineers has shown how Australia can reach 100% renewable energy by 2020 . Engineers and scientists should do likewise around the World – and it is a great opportunity for the Developing World to avoid the technological mistakes of the Developed World. .
Where the Developing World sits is summarized in the following data “Annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution” in units of “tonnes CO 2 -equivalent per person per year” (2005-2008 data) is 0.9 (Bangladesh), 0.9 (Pakistan), 2.2 (India), less than 3 (many African and Island countries), 3.2 (the Developing World), 5.5 (China), 6.7 (the World), 11 (Europe), 16 (the Developed World), 27 (the US) and 30 (Australia; or 54 if Australia's huge Exported CO 2 pollution is included) (see “Climate Genocide”: http://sites.google.com/site/climategenocide/home ).
The threat to the Developing World is acute. Both Dr James Lovelock FRS (Gaia hypothesis) and Professor Kevin Anderson ( Director, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester, UK) have recently estimated that fewer than 1 billion people will survive this century due to unaddressed, man-made global warming – noting that the world population is expected to reach 9.5 billion by 2050, these estimates translate to a climate genocide involving deaths of 10 billion people this century, this including 6 billion under-5 year old infants, 3 billion Muslims in a terminal Muslim Holocaust, 2 billion Indians, 1.3 billion non-Arab Africans, 0.5 billion Bengalis, 0.3 billion Pakistanis and 0.3 billion Bangladeshis (see “Climate Genocide”: http://sites.google.com/site/climategenocide/ ).
The threat to the world is clear as cogently summarized by Professor John Holdren (Professor of Environmental Policy and Professor of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University; Director, Woods Hole Research Center; former president, American Association for the Advancement of Science, AAAS; President Barack Obama's chief science adviser) in a lecture entitled “The Science of Climate Disruption” (2008), a summary of the basis of man-made global warming and the climatic disruption that has already occurred: http://www.usclimateaction.org/userfiles/JohnHoldren.pdf . Top climate scientists say that a safe and sustainable existence for all peoples and all species on our warming-threatened Planet requires a rapid reduction of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to about 300 parts per million (ppm) from the present dangerous and damaging 390 ppm (for a detailed compendium of such opinions see “300.org – return atmosphere CO2 to 300 ppm”, 300.org: http://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org---return-atmosphere-co2-to-300-ppm ).
Yet, despite extraordinary and indeed outrageous politician inaction worldwide, the problem is not insoluble. 100% renewable energy by 2020 as advocated by Al Gore and many others is eminently achievable (see "100% renewable energy by 2020": http://sites.google.com/site/100renewableenergyby2020/ ). Eminent climate scientist Dr James Hansen (NASA and 76-Nobel-Laureate Columbia University, New York ) has stated: “It's possible to avert the climate crisis. A bsolutely. It is possible – if we give politicians a cold, hard slap in the face. The fraudulence of the Copenhagen approach – "goals" for emission reductions, "offsets" that render ironclad goals almost meaningless, the ineffectual "cap-and-trade" mechanism – must be exposed. We must rebel against such politics as usual. Science reveals that climate is close to tipping points. It is a dead certainty that continued high emissions will create a chaotic dynamic situation for young people, with deteriorating climate conditions out of their control… Cap and trade is an inefficient compromise, paying off numerous special interests. It must be replaced with an honest approach, raising the price of carbon emissions and leaving the dirtiest fossil fuels in the ground. Are we going to stand up and give global politicians a hard slap in the face, to make them face the truth? It will take a lot of us – probably in the streets. Or are we going to let them continue to kid themselves and us and cheat our children and grandchildren?” (see James Hansen, “ It's possible to avert the climate crisis ”, Countercurrents, 29 November 2009: http://www.countercurrents.org/hansen291109.htm ).
Now a team of Australian engineers have shown how Australia - and the World - can tackle this immense problem. Wednesday 14 July at the University of Melbourne saw the launch of the Beyond Zero Emissions (BZE) Australian Sustainable Energy Zero Carbon Australia Stationary Energy Plan aka ZCA2020 (Zero Carbon Australia 2020). A synopsis of this detailed report is available on-line (see Beyond Zero Emissions, “Australian Sustainable Energy. Zero Carbon Australia Stationary Energy Plan Synopsis”: http://media.beyondzeroemissions.org/ZCA-Stationary_Energy_Synopsis_20June10.pdf ).
50 volunteer engineers and other experts of the Australian NGO Beyond Zero Emissions (BZE) and the University of Melbourne 's Melbourne Energy Institute (MEI) have developed a plan to provide 100% renewable energy for Australia within 10 years.
The ZCA2020 proposal involves Concentrated Solar Thermal (CST) power with molten salts energy storage (60%) plus Wind power (40%) to provide 100% renewable energy for industry, transport and domestic power by 2020 for an investment of A$370 billion.
In the words of BZE: “This cutting-edge plan, the culmination of over 12 months and thousands of hours of pro bono work by engineers, scientists and postgraduate students, is a collaboration between the climate solutions think tank Beyond Zero Emissions, and the University of Melbourne Energy Institute. This plan is unique in Australia . It is a detailed and costed blueprint for transitioning our stationary energy sector to 100% renewable energy in ten years. The technologies utilised in this plan are commercially available now. It has been put together in a collaborative way involving over 50 technical experts” (see: http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/
search?q=cache:9c63MkwpFQ8J:indymedia.org.au/beyond-zero-
emissions-stationary-energy-plan-launch-wed-14-july-6-8pm-
the-spot-university-of-melbour+%22beyond+zero+emissions+stationary+
energy+plan+%22&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=au ).
To a packed, circa 1,000 person audience at the Basement Theatre, University of Melbourne , the Director of BZE, Matthew Wright, outlined the genesis, rationale and details of the ZCA2020 Plan. He began with the alarming US Navy prediction of zero summer sea ice in the Arctic by 2013 as a dire example of the acute threat of man-made global warming due to greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution (see Robin McKie, “Meltdown in th Arctic is speeding up”, UK Guardian, 10 August 2008: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/aug/10/climatechange.arctic ) . While fossil fuel corporations and their lobbyists have mounted a very effective “Can't Do” campaign denying that 100% renewable energy is possible, BZE has tackled the careful research to show that we “Can Do” 100% renewable energy within 10 years using existing, commercially applied technology.
In short, the ZCA2020 Plan for 100% renewable energy for Australia (electricity supply plus replacement of oil with electricity for cars, freight rail and passenger rail transport) is costed at $370 billion. The breakdown of the overall $370 billion cost is $175 billion (concentrated solar thermal, CST), $8 billion (back-up heaters), $6 billion (bioenergy supply from crop waste for back-up heaters), $72 billion (wind power), $92 billion (High Voltage Direct Current, HVDC, and High Voltage Alternating Current, HVAC, electricity grid for transmission), and $17 billion (off-grid CST plus backup).
Key additional features were that the ZCA2020 Plan was consonant with Australian labor supply and concrete and steel production capacity. Matthew Wright's presentation concluded with a potent “Our choice” comparison: 20 tonnes of coal.or a 1 square metre mirror.
Other speakers included Professor Mike Sandiford (chair of the proceedings and head of the Melbourne Energy Institute), John Daley (CEO, Grattan Institute),
Professor Keith Lovegrove (Solar Thermal Group Leader, Australian National University , Canberra ), Lane Crockett (General Manager, Pacific Hydro), Andrew Dyer (Director, BrightSource Energy). and Professor Peter Seligman, author of “Australian Sustainable Energy – by the numbers” (an ambitious plan for 100% renewable and geothermal energy for Australia in 25 years and costing $253 billion: http://energy.unimelb.edu.au/uploads/Australian_Sustainable_Energy-by_the_numbers.pdf ).
Professor Seligman estimated that for his 100% renewable and geothermal stationary energy in 25 years “including the cost of the pipes and turbines , to convert our existing electrical power system to completely renewable sources, we will need … $253 billion … over say 25 years. That's about $10 billion per year or about $500 per person per year or $1.40 per person per day”. The breakdown is $198 billion (wind, solar and geothermal power stations), $20 billion (high voltage DC power lines), $33 billion (for turbines and pipes associates with hydrological storage of power by pumping sea water to Nullabor Desert storage ponds) and $2 billion (construction of coastal Nullabor Desert storage pond dams).
Professor Sandiford praised these 2 reports emanating from the Melbourne Energy Institute, the BZE ZCA2020 Plan and Dr Peter Seligman's “Australian Sustainable Energy – by the numbers”. Lawyer and economist John Daley (CEO, Grattan Institute) spoke of the importance of these reports in establishing that renewable was do-able and for providing ball park cost estimates. Crucially, he stated that there was no point in building gas plants on the pathway from a coal economy to a 100% renewable economy if they were only to be eventually turned off . (However one notes that because of methane leakage and methane being 72 times worse than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas on a 20 year time scale, using gas for power can be as bad in relation to GHG pollution as burning coal: http://bellaciao.org/en/spip.php?article19894 ). A key cost reservation was supply- and demand-related construction component price increases associated with massive implementation of the 100% renewable energy infrastructure. However Dr Peter Seligman pointed out the massive efficiencies in the US economic mobilization in World War 2, notably in the construction of Liberty ships.
Question time elicited many useful comments e.g. what price the extinction of a species? How can we overcome the lobbyist-driven political resistance? How can these plans be effectively disseminated? Matt Wright indicated that speakers are being trained to address community groups (à la Al Gore's volunteer speakers) and that a big venue Sydney launch is planned. One person commented that stationary energy is just one part of the GHG problem (e.g. World bank analysts have recently estimated that GHG pollution from livestock production may be over 51% of the total GHG pollution:
http://www.worldwatch.org/files/pdf/Livestock%20and%20Climate%20Change.pdf ) and BZE pointed out that further such studies on buildings, industry, transport and agriculture are in the pipeline.
Following on the plan for 100% renewable energy for the World by Mark Z. Jacobson and Mark A. Delucchi (“A plan to power 100 percent of the planet with renewables”, Scientific American, November 2009: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=a-path-to-sustainable-energy-by-2030 ) and Cambridge UK Professor David J.C. MacKay's UK-specific “Sustainable energy - without the hot air” (see: http://www.withouthotair.com/ ), the detailed and costed proposals of BZE's “ Australian Sustainable Energy Zero Carbon Australia Stationary Energy Plan” and Professor Peter Seligman's “Australian Sustainable Energy – by the numbers” are major contributions to how we can – and indeed must – rapidly achieve 100% renewable energy in high polluting countries like Australia and indeed in all countries around the world.
We must remember that Zero Emissions is just the first step to save the Biosphere. Top climate scientists say that there must be a safe and sustainable existence for all peoples and all species on our warming-threatened Planet and this requires a rapid reduction of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration to about 300 parts per million (ppm) from the present dangerous and damaging 390 ppm (see “300.org – return atmosphere CO2 to 300 ppm”, 300.org: http://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org---return-atmosphere-co2-to-300-ppm ).
Australia is the world's biggest coal exporter and has a world leading annual per capita GHG pollution – but unlike the relatively small, densely populated UK is lavishly endowed with solar, wind, wave and geothermal energy resources. The launch of Beyond Zero Emissions' “ Australian Sustainable Energy Zero Carbon Australia Stationary Energy Plan” marks a major step forward in the transition to a 100% renewable energy Australia and has important lessons for India and the World. .
The BZE ZCA2020 Report has major implications for the whole World and the Developing World in particular . Scientists and engineers around the World must follow suit with similar country-specific plans for 100% renewable energy by 2020. Indeed scientists and engineers in many Developing Countries are already doing so ( for details see "100% renewable energy by 2020": http://sites.google.com/site/100renewableenergyby2020/ ).
The BZE ZCA2020 Report says “Yes we can”. However in a recent Open Letter 255 top US scientists, all members of the US National Academy of Sciences (including 11 Nobel Laureates ) have stated in effect “Yes we must”: “ We urge our policymakers and the public to move forward immediately to address the causes of climate change, including the unrestrained burning of fossil fuels. We also call for an end to McCarthy- like threats of criminal prosecution against our colleagues based on innuendo and guilt by association, the harassment of scientists by politicians seeking distractions to avoid taking action, and the outright lies being spread about them. Society has two choices: we can ignore the science and hide our heads in the sand and hope we are lucky, or we can act in the public interest to reduce the threat of global climate change quickly and substantively. The good news is that smart and effective actions are possible. But delay must not be an option ” (see “Open Letter: climate change and the integrity of science”, UK Guardian, 10 May 2010: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/may/06/climate-science-open-letter ).
There is a great opportunity for Developing Countries to avoid the disastrous mistakes of the First World, to lead the world in “100% renewable energy by 2020” climate change action and simultaneously help save themselves and World from man-made global warming.
Dr Gideon Polya currently teaches science students at a major Australian university. He published some 130 works in a 5 decade scientific career, most recently a huge pharmacological reference text "Biochemical Targets of Plant Bioactive Compounds" (CRC Press/Taylor & Francis, New York & London , 2003). He has recently published “Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950” (G.M. Polya, Melbourne, 2007: http://globalbodycount.blogspot.com/ ); see also his contribution “Australian complicity in Iraq mass mortality” in “Lies, Deep Fries & Statistics” (edited by Robyn Williams, ABC Books, Sydney, 2007): http://www.abc.net.au/rn/science/ockham/stories/s1445960.htm ). He has just published a revised and updated 2008 version of his 1998 book “Jane Austen and the Black Hole of British History” (see: http://janeaustenand.blogspot.com/ ) as biofuel-, globalization- and climate-driven global food price increases threaten a greater famine catastrophe than the man-made famine in British-ruled India that killed 6-7 million Indians in the “forgotten” World War 2 Bengal Famine (see recent BBC broadcast involving Dr Polya, Economics Nobel Laureate Professor Amartya Sen and others: http://www.open2.net/thingsweforgot/
bengalfamine_programme.html ). When words fail one can say it in pictures - for images of Gideon Polya's huge paintings for the Planet, Peace, Mother and Child see: http://sites.google.com/site/artforpeaceplanetmotherchild/ and http://www.flickr.com/photos/gideonpolya/ .
