Is Bangladesh On The Verge Of Deadly Political Violence?
By Ishak Mia
15 October, 2013
Countercurrents.org
There is growing anxiety all around, within Bangladesh and beyond as politics are becoming increasingly violent, fuelled predominately by sharp disagreements between the ruling and opposition parties over the framework of polls-time government. The ruling Awami League-led 14-party alliance wants to hold the next general election under supervision of the present government as per the constitution. On the other hand, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)-led 18-party opposition alliance demands for arranging the polls under a non-party and neutral administration. Otherwise, they would not participate in the election. At the same time, the opposition threatened to foil the election if it is held under any party government.
The crisis over election-time government began with the Supreme Court verdict on May 10, 2011 that declared caretaker government system illegal. Although the court kept a scope of practicing the system for two more parliamentary elections due to the conflicting nature of politics, the incumbent Awami League government abolished its provision from the constitution through an amendment in June 2011. The CG system is a type of government that rules the country for three months to oversee general elections after a ruling government finishes its five-year term. An advisory council consists of ten members lead by the most recently retired chief justice of the Supreme Court is appointed to run the government. It was constitutionally introduced in 1996 to prevent the sort of fraud and violence that often marred voting. In fact, the system was successful in holding three consecutive credible national elections and generally worked well in keeping the peace during interim periods.
The lack of trust in party government to organize a free and fair election for peaceful transfer of power had essentially given birth to the concept of caretaker government in the mid-1990s. In that regard, the Awami League, then in opposition, played a pioneer role. The same party, now in government, is opposing the idea. However, the necessity of applying such concept for fair polls has not been exhausted yet as mistrust between Awami League and BNP widens further. In view of the past experiences, all parliamentary elections held under the partisan governments were marked by vote-rigging, corruption and violence that favored the ruling party. That’s because the civil administration, police and other law enforcement authorities couldn’t play a neutral role to ensure a level playing field for the contending parties. Considering these, it is unlikely that the upcoming general election would be held impartially if current government remains in office.
What justification the ruling Awami League made for arranging the next polls in keeping the cabinet active is that all local government elections including five city corporation mayoral elections were carried out largely in a transparent and non-violent manner under its stewardship. And the candidates backed by the opposition alliance scored major victories in these elections. Such pleas of the government couldn’t convince the opponents simply because victory in local elections does not allow a political party to attain state power and therefore, the governing party refrains itself from electoral rigging, even at the risk of losing. But as change of government is likely to occur through general elections, the ruling party does everything to manipulate the result. Looking at past Bangladesh national polls held under partisan governments in 1973, 1979, 1986, 1988 and 1996, the experience is really unpleasant – the ruling parties used force, intimidation and state-owned media to win elections. On the contrary, no government has ever won a successive term after non-partisan caretaker government had been formed in 1996. Thus it would be quite impossible to ensure a free, fair and credible election while any particular party is still in power. If even BNP-led opposition alliance participates in the upcoming election under present Awami League government, certainly there will be violence in both the pre- and post-election periods. This why fixing the nature of an election-time government has appeared to be a crucial factor in Bangladesh politics.
But Instead of looking for possible ways to prepare a format of such interim government, both sides remain hardened on their stance. In a recent press conference, Prime Minster Sheik Hasina cleared her government’s position, telling everyone that she will not budge an inch on poll-stance and constitutional procedure will be followed to run the election at any cost between October 25, 2013 and January 24, 2014. In response, the opposition leader Khaleda Zia said a wind of protest will blow away the government if the constitution is not amended by October 24 to reinstate the caretaker government system. This conflicting position between the two major political parties has made the general people awfully scared of what will happen on October 25 when the constitutional tenure of the present government ends. Not just common people of the country, Dhaka-based foreign diplomats, the US, the EU (European Union) and others also expressed concern over the looming danger of political confrontation. The Nobel peace laureate Dr. Muhammad Yunus recently warned that the nation will have to suffer badly in any case of turmoil over the forthcoming national election. He urged the ruling and opposition parties to hold dialogue for peace. In separate letters to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and opposition leader Khaleda Zia, the United States Secretary of State John Kerry made the same request, urging both of them to sit for positive dialogue as early as possible.
As part of UN efforts to maintain global peace and security, the UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon phoned both leaders on 23 August 2013 to settle the current dispute over the mode of an election-time government through discussions. The opposition BNP claimed that Ban Ki-moon took personal initiatives to mediate the dialogue at UN headquarters and urged the ruling and opposition parties to send two representatives from each side during the 68th session of the General Assembly. But the ruling Awami League didn’t respond to his call. Even, efforts by foreign diplomats over the past 2-3 months to mediate a dialogue between the two political parties seem to be failing. Neither the ruling coalition nor the opposition alliance is really serious about reaching a compromise over interim government’s framework. Perhaps, violence is inevitable. The gestures of the senior leaders of both parties literally convey the same message. Given the current situation, political analysts and civic group leaders in Bangladesh expect a lot of bloody violence in the coming months. They even see no light at the end of the tunnel. Local media reported that trade in illegal firearms has gone up sharply in recent days in the wake of ongoing pre-election political turmoil. The available data showed about 50 per cent of the illegal arms are controlled by political party cadres. If the ruling and opposition parties don’t reach a consensus before 24th October and violence is erupted soon afterwards, it might go beyond the control of law enforcement authorities forcing the country into chaos.
Ishak Mia is a Dhaka-based Independent Analyst in International Affairs - the conflict staff, mostly. He previously worked at the Tampere Peace Research Institute (TAPRI), Finland. Ishak Mia holds an International MA Degree in Peace, Conflict and Development Studies from the Universitat Jaume-I,Spain. email: [email protected]
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