Dishonest US GHG Reduction Pledge – US Has Already Exceeded
Its Fair Share Of World's Terminal Carbon Budget
By Dr Gideon Polya
Countercurrents.org
The US has formally pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28 percent over 2005 levels by 2025 but this is too little too late because in 2013 the exceptionalist US had already exceeded its fair share of the world's terminal 2010-2050 Carbon Budget that must not be exceeded if the world is to have a 75% chance of avoiding a catastrophic plus 2 degrees Centigrade temperature rise.
Phys.org reports: “The
Here is the exact statement by Secretary of State John Kerry (31 March 2015): “Submission of the U.S. Intended Nationally Determined Contribution to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Climate change is the defining challenge of our generation, and the United States is committed to playing a leading role in the global effort to address it. I was in Beijing with President Obama last November when he outlined the United States ' ambitious post-2020 greenhouse gas emissions target alongside Chinese President Xi Jinping. At a joint press conference, our nations each outlined bold climate change and clean energy objectives. For our part, the United States committed to cut our emissions by 26 to 28 percent from 2005 levels by the year 2025 – which would put us on the path to economy-wide reductions of around 80 percent by mid-century. Today the United States took an important step towards its objective by formally submitting our commitment to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Now it's time for other nations and come forward with their own targets to help ensure we can reach a global agreement at the UN Climate Conference in Paris later this year. President Obama has already put in place the most ambitious set of climate change actions that the United States has ever undertaken. We've adopted standards to double the fuel efficiency of American cars and trucks, and we also have rules in the works to cut emissions from new and existing power plants. And the target we formalized today will only accelerate these reductions in the future. We know there is no way the United States --nor any other country--could possibly address climate change alone. This is a global challenge, and an effective solution will require countries around the world to do their part to reduce emissions and bring about a global clean-energy future. That's the only way we'll meet this challenge, and it's the only way we'll honor our shared responsibility to future generations” [2].
In 2009 the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU; Wissenshaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderungen) determined that for a 75% chance of avoiding a catastrophic 2 degree C temperature rise the World must pollute less than a terminal Carbon Budget of 600 Gt CO2 (600 billion tonnes CO2) between 2010 and essentially zero emissions in 2050 [3].
The 2009 WBGU Report crucially stated: “The budget of CO2 emissions still available worldwide could be derived from the 2 degree C guard rail. By the middle of the 21st century a maximum of approximately 750 Gt CO2 (750 billion metric tons) may be released into the Earth's atmosphere if the guard rail is to be adhered to with a probability of 67%. If we raise the probability to 75%, the cumulative emissions within this period would even have to remain below 600 Gt CO2. In any case, only a small amount of CO2 may be emitted worldwide after 2050. Thus, the era of an economy driven by fossil fuels will definitely have to come to an end within the first half of this century” [3].
The consequences of this declaration of less than 600 Gt CO2 in emissions for a 75% chance of avoiding 2 degree C temperature rise are profound. Thus, would you board a plane if it had a 25% chance of crashing? Further, the average world population in the period 2010 and 2050 will be 8.321 billion [4]. Accordingly the per capita share of this terminal CO2 pollution budget is less than 600 billion tonnes CO2/8.321 billion people = less than 72.1 tonnes CO2 per person.
For a particular country, years relative to 2010 to the required “fair shares” total cessation of GHG pollution at current rates of pollution = 72.1 tonnes CO2-e per person/ (tonnes CO2-e per person per year for the country ). The annual per capita GHG pollution for each country in 2000 with the land use contribution included (tonnes CO2-e per person per year) was used [5]. However it should be noted that analysis does not take into account historical industrial pollution of the atmosphere (73% due to European countries) [6]. Further, the data used are big under-estimates – a World Bank re-appraisal of the livestock contribution to GHG pollution estimated annual global GHG pollution at 64 Gt CO2-e (CO2-equivalent) per year rather than the previous 42 Gt CO2-e per year, with livestock contributing over 51% of the higher figure (CO2-e or CO2-equivalent measures GHG pollution taking all GHGs into account) [7]. Indeed this revised estimate may still be an under-estimate because it assumed a Global Warming Potential (GWP) of methane (CH4) of 72 relative to CO2 (1) on a 20 year time frame, whereas the GWP for CH4 on a 20 year time-frame with aerosol impacts considered is 105 [8, 9]. For details of calculating “years left to zero emissions” see [10].
Years left for cessation of GHG pollution for the worst GHG polluting countries (subtract 5 years from the years left relative to 2010): Belize (-4.2 years or minus 4.2 years i.e. it used up its “fair share” 4.2 years ago relative to 2015), Qatar (-3.7), Guyana (-3.6), Malaysia (-3.1), United Arab Emirates (-3.0), Kuwait (-2.6), Papua New Guinea (-2.5), Brunei (-2.2), Australia (-2.2; -3.9 if including its huge GHG Exports), Antigua & Barbuda (-2.2), Zambia (-2.1), Canada (-2.0), Bahrain (-2.0), United States (-1.9), Trinidad & Tobago (-1.7), Luxembourg (-1.6), Panama (-1.3), New Zealand (-1.3), Estonia (-1.0), Botswana (-0.9), Ireland (-0.7), Saudi Arabia (-0.6), Venezuela (-0.4 ), Indonesia (-0.2), Equatorial Guinea (0.0), Belgium (0.0), Turkmenistan (0.1 years ), Singapore (0.1), Czech Republic (0.2), Liberia (0.2), Netherlands (0.3), Russia (0.3), Nicaragua (0.4), Finland (0.5), Oman (0.6), Palau (0.6), Brazil (0.6), Denmark (0.8), and Germany (0.9 years left).
Unfortunately, for all the fine words of Kerry and Obama, the US used up its “fair share” of the world's terminal Carbon Budget in 2013, Canada ditto and an even more profligate Australia (through its disproportionately huge annual fossil fuel burning and exports) used up its “fair share” of this terminal greenhouse gas (GHG) Carbon Budget in 2011.
Accordingly, the announcement of US Secretary of State John Kerry of a “promised reduction of between 26 and 28 per cent on 2005 levels by 2025” [1, 2] is simply more breath-taking “exceptionalism” from the US rogue state (see William Blum's best-selling book “Rogue State” [11]) that has granted itself the licence to invade 70 nations (some of them repeatedly) [11, 12, 13] and is now criminally stealing the entitlement of other countries and egregiously invading by GHG pollution the one common atmosphere and ocean of all countries.
No doubt similarly exceptionalist and climate criminal, US lackey Australia will do likewise and, having invaded 85 countries (as compared to the British 193, the French 80, the US 70 and Apartheid Israel 12)
The world is badly running out of time to deal with man-made climate change. Indeed a 2012 analysis estimated that the world had only 5 years left to act before its exceed the WBGU's terminal Carbon Budget i.e. in 2015 the world has only 2 years left to act [18, 19, 20]. Time has already run out for tropical Island nations like Vanuatu (horrendously devastated by Cyclone Pam in 2015) and the Philippines (facing massive hurricanes each year) and mega-delta countries like Bangladesh facing increasing land loss from rising seal levels and increased storm intensity. Already about 5 million people die each year from climate change (0.5 million) or carbon burning pollutants (4.5 million) [21], 17 million die avoidably each year from deprivation [13] and it is estimated that 10 billion people will die avoidably this century if man-made climate change is not requisitely addressed [21].
Conclusions.
The US Obama Administration's pledge to the UN to reduce US greenhouse gas emissions “by 26-28 percent over 2005 levels by 2025” is a massive deception of the American people and the World because the US had already 2 years ago exceeded its “fair share” of the world's terminal Carbon Budget of 600 Gt CO2 that must not be exceeded if we are to have a 75% chance of avoiding a catastrophic plus 2 degrees Centigrade temperature rise. The pro-war, pro-Zionist, effective climate change denialist Republicans – overwhelmingly Racist Religious Right Republicans (R4s) - have compounded and reinforced Obama's Big Lie by opposing his disingenuous pledge. Indeed it is likely that the Republicans will effectively veto both Obama's pollution reduction pledge and his historic nuclear deal with
Of course lying is de rigeur (par for the course, second nature) for US Governments of whatever political complexion. Thus, for example, Roosevelt was well aware of the impending Pearl Harbor attack before it happened [22]; numerous science, engineering architecture, aviation, military and intelligence experts conclude that the US Government was responsible for the 9-11 atrocity [23]; and according to the US Center for Public Integrity the Bush Administration told 935 lies about Iraq between 9-11 and the invasion of Iraq [24]. Obama is perhaps the most dangerous liar of them all because (a) he lies as an articulate and ostensibly “progressive” American leader while actually being a “standard issue” American warmonger, war maker, war criminal and climate criminal, and (b) the appalling pro-war, pro-Zionist, pro-One Percenter, corporatist Racist Religious Right Republicans (R4s) leave Obama as the only alternative.
The worsening climate crisis is at least formally recognized as a major issue by the Obama Administration. However Obama's previous major policy announcement on climate change - 30% off 2005 greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution of America's dirty power plants by 2030 enforceable by the US Environment Protection Authority (EPA) under the Clean Air Act - represented too little too late and fell far short of what is needed to address the worsening climate crisis. Thus the annual GHG pollution to be saved in 2030 through this measure is estimated to be only 4.5% of America's current total annual GHG pollution that is re-assessed at 10.3 billion tonnes CO2-e (CO2 equivalent) if the latest data on methane emissions are considered [25]. Successive US Governments have got away with their egregious lying by commission and lying by omission because America, like other democracies, has become a Plutocracy, Murdochracy, Lobbyocracy and Corporatocracy in which Big Money purchases people, politicians, parties, policies, public perception of reality and power [26, 27, 28].
The world is badly running out of time to deal with man-made climate change – it is now increasingly likely that a catastrophic 2 degree Centigrade (+2C) temperature rise is unavoidable [29]. Thus leading climate scientists and biologists argue that for a safe planet for all peoples and all species we must urgently return to the pre-Industrial Revolution atmospheric CO2 concentration for millions of years of about 300 parts per million CO2 (300 ppm CO2) from the current dangerous and damaging 400 ppm CO2 [30]. However the cost of doing this and reversing damage from GHG pollution can be estimated as a Carbon Debt of $270 trillion (about 3 times the annual world GDP of $85 trillion) that is remorselessly increasing at $10 trillion each year [31]. All decent people who care for global warming-threatened Humanity and the Biosphere must act urgently to try to make things “less bad” by (a) informing everyone they can and (b) urging and applying Boycotts, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) against all those people, politicians , parties, companies , corporations and countries disproportionately complicit in the worsening Climate Genocide.
References.
[1]. “US renews pledge to cut emissions 26-28% by 2025”, Phys.org, 31 March 2015: http://phys.org/news/2015-03-renews-pledge-emissions.html .
[2]. John Kerry, “Kerry on U.S. Commitment to U.N. Climate Change Agreement”, US Government, IIP Digital, 31 March 2015: http://iipdigital.usembassy.gov/st/english/texttrans/2015/03/20150331314500.html?CP.rss=true#axzz3W7mxpevu
[3]. WBGU (2009), “Solving the climate dilemma: the budget approach”: http://www.wbgu.de/fileadmin/templates/dateien/veroeffentlichungen/sondergutachten/sn2009/wbgu_sn2009_en.pdf
[4]. UN Population Division: http://esa.un.org/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm .
[5]. “List of countries by greenhouse gas emissions per capita”: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_greenhouse_gas_emissions_per_capita .
[6]. James Hansen, “ 2008 Letter of Dr James Hansen, NASA GISS, to PM Kevin Rudd of
[7]. Robert Goodland and Jeff Anfang. “Livestock and climate change. What if the key actors in climate change are … cows, pigs and chickens?”, World Watch, November/December 2009: http://www.worldwatch.org/files/pdf/Livestock%20and%20Climate%20Change.pdf .
[8]. Drew T. Shindell , Greg Faluvegi, Dorothy M. Koch , Gavin A. Schmidt , Nadine Unger and Susanne E. Bauer , “Improved Attribution of Climate Forcing to Emissions”, Science 30 October 2009:
Vol. 326 no. 5953 pp. 716-718: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/326/5953/716 .
[9]. “Gas is not clean energy”: https://sites.google.com/site/gasisnotcleanenergy/ .
[10]. “Years left for zero greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution relative to 2013”, Carbon Debt Carbon Credit: https://sites.google.com/site/carbondebtcarboncredit/years-left-to-zero .
[11]. William Blum, “
[12]. Gideon Polya, “The US Has Invaded 70 Nations Since 1776 – Make 4 July Independence From America Day”, Countercurrents, 5 July, 2013: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya050713.htm .
[13]. Gideon Polya, “Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950”, now available for free perusal on the web: http://globalbodycount.blogspot.com.au/2012/01/body-count-global-avoidable-mortality_05.html .
[14]. Gideon Polya
[15]. Gideon Polya, “British Have Invaded 193 Countries: Make 26 January ( Australia Day, Invasion Day) British Invasion Day”, Countercurrents, 23 January, 2015: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya230115.htm .
[16]. Gideon Polya, “President Hollande And French Invasion Of Privacy Versus French Invasion Of 80 Countries Since 800 AD”, Countercurrents, 15 January, 2014: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya150114.htm .
[17]. Gideon Polya, “
[18]. Gideon Polya, "
[19]. “Are we doomed?”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/are-we-doomed .
[20]. "Too late to avoid global warming catastrophe": https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/too-late-to-avoid-global-warming .
[21]. “Climate Genocide”: https://sites.google.com/site/climategenocide/ .
[22]. Gideon Polya, “Jane Austen and the Black Hole of British History. Colonial rapacity, holocaust denial and the crisis in biological sustainability”, now available for free perusal on the web: http://janeaustenand.blogspot.com.au/ .
[23]. “Experts: US did 9-11”: https://sites.google.com/site/expertsusdid911/ .
[24]. “Study: Bush, aides made 935 false statements in run-up to war”, CNN, 24 January 2008: http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/23/bush.iraq/ .
[25]. Gideon Polya, “Pro-gas Obama's EPA-based Plan To Reduce Coal-based Pollution Amounts To Climate Change Inaction”, Countercurrents, 7 June, 2014: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya070614.htm .
[26]. “Mainstream media lying”: https://sites.google.com/site/mainstreammedialying/ .
[27]. “Mainstream media censorship”: https://sites.google.com/site/mainstreammediacensorship/home .
[28]. “Boycott Murdoch media”: https://sites.google.com/site/boycottmurdochmedia/ .
[29]. "Too late to avoid global warming catastrophe": https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/too-late-to-avoid-global-warming .
[30]. “300.org – return atmosphere CO2 to 300 ppm CO2”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org---return-atmosphere-co2-to-300-ppm .
[31]. “Carbon Debt Carbon Credit”: https://sites.google.com/site/carbondebtcarboncredit/ .
Dr Gideon Polya has been teaching science students at a major Australian university for 4 decades. He published some 130 works in a 5 decade scientific career, most recently a huge pharmacological reference text "Biochemical Targets of Plant Bioactive Compounds" (CRC Press/Taylor & Francis,
) and “Ongoing Palestinian Genocide” in “The Plight of the Palestinians (edited by William Cook, Palgrave Macmillan,
.
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