Food
Prices Climbing,
With No End In Sight
By Abra Pollock
07 December, 2007
Inter
Press Service
WASHINGTON - Globalisation, climate change, and the
mass production of biofuels are pushing up food prices worldwide, which
could jeopardise the livelihoods of the world’s poorest, according
to a report released Tuesday by the International Food Policy Research
Institute (IFPRI).
“Food
prices have been steadily decreasing since the Green Revolution, but
the days of falling food prices may be over,” said Joachim von
Braun, lead author of the report and director general of IFPRI.
Titled, “The
World Food Situation: New Driving Forces and Required Actions”,
the 16-page report examined how various global trends are impacting
world hunger on both the supply and demand ends of the market.
“Surging
demand for feed, food, and fuel have recently led to drastic price increases,
which are not likely to fall in the foreseeable future,” von Braun
said. But “climate change will also have a negative impact on
food production.”
Similar findings
have been reported by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and
Development, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the U.N. Food and
Agriculture Organisation, according to IFPRI.
Researchers
predict that shifting weather conditions resulting from climate change
will disrupt rainfall patterns that farmers rely on to nourish their
crops and water the grasslands that feed their livestock. As a result,
cereal production in South Asia could drop 22 percent by 2080, while
wheat production in Africa may virtually disappear by that time, the
report said.
Furthermore,
temperature increases of more than three degrees Celsius could in turn
lift food prices by as much as 40 percent.
The production
of crop-based biofuels — renewable energy sources developed in
response to climate change — may also dramatically impact food
supply, and thereby further escalate food prices.
If the countries
that have already committed to biofuel production, as well as other
high-potential producer countries, carry out their current investment
plans, global maize prices would increase by 26 percent and oilseed
prices would rise by 18 percent by 2020, according to the report. This
is due to state subsidies for biofuels, as well the shift in committing
scarce resources toward cultivating biofuel crops.
“As
biofuels become increasingly profitable, more land, water, and capital
will be diverted to their production, and the world will face more trade-offs
between food and fuel,” the report said.
In the U.S.
alone, the use of maize for ethanol production increased by two and
a half times between 2000 and 2006.
On the demand
side of worldwide food production, globalisation, economic growth, and
urbanisation in places such as China and India have impacted people’s
dietary preferences and food choices, the report noted. While demand
is on the increase for processed food and high-value agricultural crops
such as vegetables, fruit, meat and dairy, demand for grains and other
staple crops is declining.
This shift
in “tastes” represents a microcosm of the food costs issue,
said IPFRI research analyst Timothy Sulser, who also contributed to
the report. As wealthier populations shift to a diet full of meat, fruits,
and vegetables, poorer populations will struggle to afford ever pricier
food staples.
“There
will be an even wider gap between affluent people and poorer people
in terms of access to a nutritional diet” if trends continue,
Sulser said.
With many
factors threatening the world’s food supply and demand, immediate
action is needed in the areas of international development and global
trade policy in order to avert what could be a dramatic hunger crisis,
according to authors of the report.
Eliminating
trade barriers and programs that set aside agriculture resources is
one way that developed countries could help equip developing countries
for the rising food prices.
Other suggestions
include strengthening policies to promote early childhood nutrition
— thereby diminishing the risks related to limited food access
— and incorporating food and agriculture considerations into the
agenda for domestic and international climate change policy.
Yet these
solutions may only mitigate the effects of a global trend whose causal
forces, such as globalisation and climate change, have already been
set in motion, say researchers.
“The
policy suggestions are intended to help minimise some of the impact
of these changes,” said Sulser. “It’s important now
to look at how we can help people adapt to the changing the situation.”
© 2007
Inter Press Service
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