Defeat And Its Consequences
By Mani Shankar AiyarThe Indian Express
12 December, 2003
Kudos to the BJP for overturning what most agreed was a certain Congress victory in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and a possible retention by the Congress of Madhya Pradesh. The Congress is, of course, beaten — and the pollsters more so.
But what next? Installed cheek-by-jowl to Narendra Modi, we now have Uma Bharti. In the aftermath of Godhra, Ratlam in next door Madhya Pradesh was calm while Vadodra and Ahmedabad, much further away from Godhra than Ratlam, were in flames. There are quite as many Hindus in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan as in Gujarat. Yet, Narendra Modi’s twist to Newton’s law ran out at the Gujarat-Madhya Pradesh border as it did in the few kilometres between Himmatnagar, Gujarat and Mount Abu, Rajasthan. And next to Narendra Modi and Uma Bharti, we have Judeo Raj. The man is known less for his preference for Cash over God than for the shuddhi movement he has unleashed among the Christian tribals of Chhattisgarh. If Godhra had happened in February 2004 rather than February 2002, would Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh have been spared the Modi version of ‘dharma raj’?
Now that the causes of the election outcome have been analysed to death, spare a thought for the consequences of that outcome. While much of the media has been trumpeting the victory of “development issues” over “Hindutva”, the Hindutva brigade have installed three of the ugliest faces of communalism in Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, and virtually handed over Chhattisgarh to the tender ministrations of Dilip Singh Judeo. (I exempt Rajasthan because Vasundhara is not Uma Bharti: her oratory is prachar; Uma’s is pravachan. But how long will Vasundhara last? And will the vile forces of saffron let her be herself?)
To imagine that a sadhvi swathed in saffron has suddenly changed into a professor of economics, like a duckling transforming into a swan, would be naivete of the highest order. For who can forget the hideous grin on Uma Bharti’s face as the Babri Masjid was demolished brick by shameful brick? However sotto voce their Hindutva might have been during the election campaign, the establishment of a Hindu Rashtra remains their core agenda. Yes, there are relatively modern faces in the BJP. But Vasundhara is the only one chosen from among the moderates. With due deliberation have been foisted in three adjoining seats the ‘second rung’ leadership of the BJP. This second rung is committed to the worst excesses of Hindutva. Next only to Modi’s refusal to regret the massacre of the minorities in Gujarat was Uma Bharti’s stout and unrepentant defence of the horrors of Gujarat. And Father Graham Staines’ brutal murder was the inevitable outcome of the hateful propaganda poisonously spread by Judeo and his ilk.
This second rung has been carefully insinuated into office against the day the BJP hopes to capture power on its own, so that when it whips out its real agenda of altering the nationhood of India, its apparatchiks will be in place. I do not for a moment believe the Hindus will vote for Hindutva, for even in 1999 the best the BJP could do was secure 180 seats. Except in Venkaiah Naidu’s flights of fancy, the BJP is as far from 300 seats in the next Lok Sabha elections as the Congress is from 272. But as the BJP edges towards their goal of absolute unfettered power, the more dangerous becomes the prospect of an India ruled by those of the colour of Modi, Bharti and Judeo.
There is, therefore, no alternative to recognising that the BJP must be stopped in its tracks as firmly as Hitler should have been in 1932. But because conservatives and clerics of various hues entered into coalition arrangements with the Nazis, Hitler won the elections of January 1933. I have always seen something symbolic about Hitler having become chancellor on the same day as Gandhiji was assassinated 15 years later — 30 January. Our LPG lobby — liberalisation, privatisation, globalisation — is so enamoured of the right-wing benefits the BJP promises to confer on the fat cats that one fears they will back the BJP for the same reason that Krupp and Daimler backed Hitler. It is only an unprincipled coalition that has brought the BJP six years of power at the Centre. The NDA alliance might in the next round change something of its components but the BJP will never be lacking for partners who sleep with the enemy.
Therefore, it is imperative that the enlightened element of our public life recognise that the next Lok Sabha election is less about winning the election than about stopping the BJP from winning. And the lesson must first be learned by the Congress. For without the Congress, there is no stopping the BJP. Therefore, the fulcrum of an alternative alliance has to be the Congress, not a go-it-alone Congress but a Congress which works the coalition dharma. Remember, in all three states which the Congress lost, the massive slide in the Congress vote went only marginally to the BJP; the bulk of the transfer was from the Congress to regional or sectional outfits — and Congress rebels. So, the Congress lost, but the BJP did not win. It was the split in the non-BJP vote which took the BJP vote over the top. An alliance to consolidate the non-communal vote would, therefore, be a winning combination.
Of course, the Congress has no experience of coalition politics at the Centre, but it does have a fund of experience of coalition politics in the states. That could be drawn upon — provided potential partners are willing to eschew the anti-Congressism on which they have flourished. Also, if alliances become the route for poaching on each other’s territories, then an alternative alliance cannot hang together and its component parties will hang separately. If, however, it is possible to forge an alliance of mutually reinforcing strengths, that would electrify the political landscape. A progressive secular alliance might still come to be pitted against the National Democratic Alliance. The Congress offered to go down this path at Shimla and has reiterated this at last Sunday’s meeting of the Congress Working Committee. The weeks to come will determine whether that is, in fact, feasible.