The
Hostage Game
By Patrick Cockburn
29 March, 2007
The Independent
Arbil
At 3am on January 11, US
military forces raided the Iranian liaison office in the Kurdish capital
Arbil and detained five Iranian officials who are still prisoners.
The attack marked a significant
escalation in the confrontation between the US and Iran.
Britain is inevitably involved
in this as America's only important foreign ally in Iraq. In fact the
US raid could have had even more significant consequences if the Americans
had captured the Iranian official they were targeting. Fuad Hussein,
the chief of staff of the Kurdish president Massoud Barzani, told me
that "they were after Mohammed Jafari, the deputy chairman of Iran's
National Security Council."
It is a measure of the difficulty
America has in getting its close allies in Iraq, notably the Kurds,
to join it in confronting Iran that Mr Jafari was in Arbil as part of
an Iranian delegation. He had just visited Mr Barzani in his mountain-top
headquarters at Salahudin and earlier he met with Iraqi President Jalal
Talabani in Dokan in eastern Kurdistan.
The political links between
Iran and Iraq will be difficult to sever. Most Iraqi political leaders,
Arab or Kurdish, were exiles in Iran or in Syria. They are also conscious
that one day the US will withdraw from Iraq but Iran will always be
there.
Some businessmen in Arbil
scent profitable opportunities as the UN tightens its embargo on trade
with Iran, announced at the weekend by the UN. As official trade is
squeezed, they foresee remunerative possibilities for smuggling goods
in and out of Iran.
Economically, northern Iraq
needs Iran more than Iran needs it. Iranian petrol commands a premium
price because it is considered pure and Kurdistan is eager to increase
its supply of electricity, of which it is permanently short, from Iran.
In terms of US domestic and
international politics, an American confrontation with Iran on the nuclear
issue probably makes sense. Washington can rally support against Iran
in a way that it cannot do when it looks for support for its occupation
of Iraq. Seeing the US bogged down in Iraq, the Iranians may have overplaying
their hand in developing nuclear power.
Inside Iraq, confrontation
with Iran does not make much political sense. All America's allies in
Iraq have close ties with Iran. The only anti-Iranian community in Iraq
is the five million Sunni who have been fighting the US for the past
four years.
The US raid on Arbil in January
would have had far more serious consequences if Mr Jafari had been abducted.
As it was, the seizure of five Iranian officials seems to have set the
scene for the Iranian Revolutionary Guards seizing 15 British sailors
and marines.
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