India Under
Pressure
To Cut Emissions
By Sugita Katyal
14 February, 2005
Planet
Ark
NEW DELHI
- A horse-driven cart loaded with a mountain of vegetables lumbers down
a highway in northern India while a factory spews out thick clouds of
smoke in the distance.
It's a common sight
in India, the world's second-most populous nation, whose economy has
been growing at a frenetic pace, creating a huge middle class, and spiralling
demand for electricity and factories to feed export growth.
As fuel imports grow and demand for cars surges, analysts say the country
is likely to face pressure to join rich nations in their efforts to
lower greenhouse gas emissions as part of the Kyoto climate change protocol
that comes into force on Feb. 16.
"There is already
global pressure on developing countries to accept some kind of commitment
so greenhouse gas emissions decelerate in terms of growth," said
K.P. Nyati, an environment expert at top lobby group Confederation of
Indian Industry.
"If at all
India accepts any targets it will be in per capita terms, not per nation
emissions."
India, with a billion
people, is one of the world's bigger polluters and is projected to account
for a larger share of global carbon emissions as its economy expands.
But it has no obligation to cut emissions under Kyoto's first phase
to 2012.
Under the agreement,
developed nations will aim to reduce greenhouse gas output by 5.2 percent
of 1990 levels by 2008-12, but developing nation such as India and China
are exempt from the treaty's emission targets because they said their
economies would take a serious hit if they were to change their energy
policies.
India has some of
the most polluted cities in the world, many of them continually shrouded
in eye-stinging smog of noxious fumes from cars and industry. And car
sales are booming. Total passenger vehicle sales in the domestic market
rose 27.4 percent in 2004 to 900,752.
"BROWN CLOUD"
A UN study has warned
that a two-mile-thick cloud of pollution shrouding southern Asia is
threatening the lives of millions of people.
The cloud, a toxic
cocktail of ash, acidic compounds, aerosols and other particles, is
damaging agriculture and changing rainfall patterns across the region,
which stretches from Afghanistan to Sri Lanka.
Even so, while India's
cities may be hugely polluted because of the furious pace of industrialisation,
the country's per capita emissions were still relatively low at 0.25
tonnes of carbon in 2001, which is less than a quarter of the world
average and 22 times less than the United States.
At the same time,
India's contribution to world carbon emissions is expected to grow at
an average 3 percent a year until 2025 compared with 1.5 percent in
the United States because of ambitions expansion plans in the power
sector.
"Pressure on
India can come in trade and investment to make India agree to targets,"
said Kalipada Chatterjee, head of the climate change centre at Development
Alternatives, a leading non-governmental organisation.
"But developing
countries like India won't be able to agree to any commitments before
2050 because that's when their economies would have developed."
With the Indian
economy expected to steam ahead at about 6.5 percent a year, the country's
biggest carbon dioxide emitters will be the power, cement and transport
sectors -- among the drivers of growth.
Energy-deficient
India aims to add 100,000 MW of power by 2012, of which at least half
will be from fossil-based fuels.
CLEAN TECHNOLOGY
Adopting clean technologies
will help limit emissions growth and India is the only country with
a renewable energy ministry. The government says the aim is to generate
at least 10 percent of energy from renewable or more environment-friendly
sources such as water, wind, biomass and natural gas.
In an effort to
clean its air, the government has introduced stringent emission standards
for vehicles and introduced greener fuels such as compressed natural
gas in some cities.
India's Ministry
for Non-conventional Energy Sources has estimated that India has the
potential to generate 80,000 megawatts of power from renewable sources
but produces only 5,000, half of it from windmills.
But the government
is firm that it will not agree to any targets even after 2012, the Kyoto
pact's second phase when signatories are supposed to back deeper emissions
cuts.
"In developing
countries where the objective is to eradicate poverty and where we're
on such a growth trajectory, we can't agree to any binding commitments,"
said a senior government official.
"Emissions
in India will not rise because of economic development because the economy
is dominated by the services sector. Of course, we will welcome any
technology to help emit less, but we are in no position to forego our
economic targets," the official said.