No
Defence For Arms Sales
By David Mepham
The New Statesman (UK)
23rd June 2003
A year ago, India and Pakistan
stood on the verge of what many feared would be a nuclear war. Tony
Blair and other world leaders pleaded with both governments to pull
back from the brink. Although relations between the two sides have improved
recently, the risk of a war triggered by events in the Kashmir Valley
remains. In this context, the imminent announcement of a deal between
BAE Systems and the Indian government for 66 Hawk jets is a source of
great concern. Contrary to previous denials, the British government
has admitted that an export licence for some Hawk components and production
equipment was approved in September 2001, and it is now certain to pass
the remaining licence to secure the deal. Of the 66 Hawks, 22 will be
directly exported to India and 44 will be manufactured there.
The government's defence
for the deal will be twofold. First, it will
say the Hawks are merely training aircraft. However, the BAE Systems
website states that Hawks can be adapted for more offensive use and
can "deliver a comprehensive array of air-to-air and air-to-surface
weaponry with pinpoint accuracy". Indonesia certainly used British-supplied
Hawk "trainers" aggressively in East Timor in 1999. Furthermore,
India's air force plans to use the Hawks to train pilots to fly Jaguar
fighter aircraft that are being upgraded with Israeli avionics to make
them nuclear-capable.
The British government's
published criteria state that an export
licence should not be granted if "there is a clear risk that the
intended recipient would use the proposed export aggressively against
another country or to assert by force a territorial claim". That
risk clearly exists, but the government has chosen to play it down.
By supporting this deal, Britain will significantly enhance India's
offensive capability and contribute to further military build up in
the region. Instead, it should be working with the United States, the
European Union and others to urge India and Pakistan to de-escalate
and demilitarise, and to begin serious negotiations over Kashmir.
The government's second defence
for the deal will be that it is good for the economy and jobs. But such
an assertion is contested by The Economic Costs and Benefits of UK Defence
Exports, a report first published in November 2001 and updated last
year. The authors, Neil Davies and Chris Wilkinson (senior economists
at the Ministry of Defence) and Malcolm Chalmers and Keith Hartley (independent
academics), looked at the likely economic effect of a 50 per cent reduction
in arms exports. They estimated that it would lead to the loss of 49,000
jobs in the defence sector, but that this would be offset by the creation
of about 67,000 jobs in non-defence employment over a five-year period.
They also argued that, overall, national income would be substantially
the same after five years. The report concluded that "the economic
costs of reducing defence exports are relatively small and largely one-off",
and that "the balance of argument about defence exports should
depend mainly on non-economic
considerations".
The Hawk deal raises questions
about the way the government makes policy on arms export issues. The
Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Minister, Foreign and Defence Secretaries
have all been involved in lobbying for the deal. Each licence application
is supposed to be considered impartially against agreed criteria, but
the ministers' promotion of the deal makes it almost inconceivable that
a licence would be refused.
Clear limits should be established
on ministerial involvement in the promotion of arms exports. The government
should scrap the Defence Export Services Organisation - which Denis
Healey set up as defence minister in the 1960s with the remit of promoting
arms sales to the developing world - and phase out the support given
to arms exports by the Export Credits Guarantee Department. There should
also be greater parliamentary involvement on arms export issues. Four
select committees, covering defence, foreign affairs, international
development and trade, have called for a prior parliamentary scrutiny
committee.
For too long, the moral case
against some arms exports has been trumped by the apparently invincible
economic case in favour. But the findings of the government's own economists
suggest that a more responsible approach is not a question of economic
loss versus moral gain. The government, first elected on a pledge to
clean up the arms trade, is running out of excuses for not doing so.
David Mepham is the head
of the international programme at the
Institute for Public Policy Research