What
Do Palestinians Really Think?
By Ali Abunimah
28 August, 2007
Electronic
Intifada
"Palestinian poll finds
support for Fatah government over Hamas." That headline from the
International Herald Tribune, one of many similar ones last week, must
have warmed the hearts of supporters of the illegal, unelected and Israeli-backed
Ramallah "government" of Salam Fayyad. Last June Palestinian
Authority President Mahmoud Abbas dismissed Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh
of Hamas and the national unity government he headed, and appointed
Fayyad without the legally required endorsement of the Palestinian legislative
council. This followed Hamas' rout of the US and Israeli-backed militias
of Fatah warlord Mohammed Dahlan in the Gaza Strip.
Does this poll vindicate
the US and Israeli strategy of funding and arming Palestinian collaborator
leaders in Ramallah, and Abbas' strategy of embracing Israel, cracking
down on the resistance, colluding in a cruel siege on his people in
Gaza, and refusing all dialogue with Hamas? A closer look at the poll
results as well as the context suggests the opposite.
The poll's publisher, the
Jerusalem Media and Communications Centre (JMCC), trumpeted that a "majority"
of Palestinians "said the performance of Fayyad's government is
better" than that of the democratically-elected government of Haniyeh
who is still the de facto prime minister despite Abbas' dismissal order.
In fact the results claim
46.5 percent preferring Fayyad's performance (a plurality not a majority)
as against 24.4 percent preferring Haniyeh's performance since the events
in June. (See JMCC poll number 62, August 2007 [http://www.jmcc.org/new/07/aug/poll.htm])
Still, if true, that would
be an impressive achievement for Abbas and Fayyad. The poll also states
that were new legislative elections held, 38 percent would vote for
Fatah, while just 24 percent would vote for Hamas -- with Fatah retaining
a lead in both the West Bank and Gaza.
Yet there are good reasons
to believe that this poll, like all previous polls taken by JMCC and
other organizations, overestimates support for Fatah and understates
support for Hamas by a wide margin. (Recall that all the polls erroneously
predicted a comfortable win for Fatah in the January 2006 legislative
election, and the 2005 municipal elections).
According to its methodology,
this poll included face-to-face interviews with 1,199 Palestinians in
randomly selected households throughout the West Bank and Gaza. Let
us suppose that is the case.
Abbas has effectively declared
Hamas illegal and his Israeli-backed security forces are working alongside
Israeli occupation troops to carry out mass arrests of its supporters.
Israel continues to carry out mass kidnappings and extrajudicial executions
of Hamas members and other Palestinian resistance activists, aided by
an extensive network of collaborators working inside and outside Palestinian
official institutions, and some non-governmental organizations. Under
such circumstances it is not surprising that true support for Hamas
(as measured by secret ballots in elections) has always been much higher
than that to which people are willing to admit in face-to-face interviews
with strangers whose affiliations they cannot easily assess.
Second, when Palestinians
are being asked to evaluate "performance" it is not clear
what they are being asked to assess. Does the question take into account
the fact that the democratically-elected Hamas government was barely
able to function from the time it took office in March 2006 due to the
kidnapping of half its cabinet by Israel, the US-EU-Israeli siege which
deprived it of its rightful revenues even to pay salaries, sabotage
by Dahlan's gangs, and since June the total blockade of Gaza that has
virtually shut down its economy? (The latest ploy was the apparent collusion
by Israel, the European Union and Abbas advisors to cut off Gaza's electricity
on the basis of accusations, denied by a Gaza electricity company official,
that Hamas was siphoning off revenues).
At the same time, Abbas and
Fayyad are receiving hundreds of millions of dollars from their foreign
patrons. Not really a fair comparison. But given their advantages Abbas
and Fayyad are doing remarkably poorly even as measured by the poll.
While 44 percent of Gaza
residents polled said their own security situation has improved since
Hamas took over (and 31 percent said it had gotten worse), only 17 percent
of West Bank residents polled say their security situation has improved
living under Abbas and Fayyad, while 36.5 percent said it had deteriorated.
More than half of those polled
were "dissatisfied" with Abbas' performance, while just a
fifth were "very satisfied."
Overall, 26 percent of Palestinians
under occupation said the Fayyad government should be "canceled"
and the national unity government (which had been headed by Haniyeh)
restored to office (21 percent in the West Bank and 34 percent in Gaza).
Only 17 percent thought the Haniyeh government should be "canceled"
so that Fayyad could rule over the West Bank and Gaza (18 percent in
the West Bank, 16 percent in Gaza). Read another way this suggests that
just 17 percent of Palestinians under occupation view the Fayyad government
as being the legitimate authority.
A majority of Palestinians
wanted to see a return to dialogue and national unity -- a rejection
of Abbas' intransigent refusal to talk to Hamas.
Asked which leaders they
trust most, Abbas came highest with 18 percent (17 percent in the West
Bank, 20 percent in Gaza). Haniyeh came a close second at 16 percent
(11 percent in West Bank, 25 percent in Gaza). Salam Fayyad came in
fifth at just 3.5 percent, scoring the same in both territories. Almost
a third of Palestinians said they didn't trust anyone.
Asked who they would vote
for in a presidential election, those polled gave statistically equal
support to both Abbas and Haniyeh (21 percent and 19 percent), while
Fayyad got five percent.
If the poll shows weak support
for Abbas and Fayyad (and great disaffection with all political factions),
it shows outright rejection of Abbas' capitulationist approach to peace
negotiations with Israel. Canceling the right of return, allowing Israeli
settlements to stay, and giving up most of Jerusalem in exchange for
a Palestinian statelet on a fraction of the West Bank are reportedly
at the heart of the "agreement of principles" that Abbas is
negotiating with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.
Almost 70 percent of Palestinians
under occupation, according to the poll, adhere to the right of "return
of all refugees to their original land." Another 12 percent envisage
the return of only some refugees to their original lands. Just seven
percent of those polled agreed with the position that no refugees should
return home at all.
Eighty-two percent opposed
allowing Israel to retain control of "major settlement blocs inside
the West Bank in exchange for equal Israeli land," and 94 percent
rejected "keeping Israel's authority in the area of Al-Aqsa mosque"
in Jerusalem.
Peace process industry propagandists
routinely claim that a two-state solution is overwhelmingly supported
by the vast majority of Palestinians. This has never been true (millions
of Palestinian refugees and exiles outside the country have never been
included in elections, and are not regularly polled). This poll indicates
that among Palestinians under occupation, support for a two-state solution
is at just 51 percent (49 percent in the West Bank and 54 percent in
Gaza). At the same time support for "a binational state in all
of Palestine where Palestinians and Israeli [sic] enjoy equal representation
and rights" is now supported by 30 percent (roughly similar in
both territories).
Support for a two-state solution
remains remarkably anemic, given the massive efforts invested in promoting
it, while support for a one-state solution is impressively high and
continues to creep upwards despite the fact that no major political
faction or leader has openly endorsed it and so much effort is invested
in discrediting it.
There are legitimate concerns
about the methodology of the JMCC poll, the phrasing of questions and
the context. At least one blogger cast doubt on it because the pollster,
Ghassan Khatib, has served numerous times as a minister in the Fatah-led
Palestinian Authority.
[http://palestinianpundit.blogspot.com/2007/08/
fabricating-palestinian-public-opinion.html]
Nevertheless, whatever doubts
there are, this poll merely confirms that Palestinians under occupation
remain united on the fundamentals of their cause. Despite the conspiracy
they face to starve and brutalize them into giving up their rights,
the Palestinian people are steadfast in defending them.
Ali Abunimah
is co-founder of The Electronic Intifada and author of One Country:
A Bold Proposal to End the Israeli-Palestinian Impasse.
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