Peak Oil vs. Global Warming
By Peter Goodchild
27 October, 2012
Countercurrents.org
To what extent, if any, will peak oil and global warming cancel each other out? It seems most likely that Peak Oil is around 2010, give or take a few years. It seems that Peak Coal will be about 2020, much sooner than indicated by previous scenarios. Coal production is tricky, though, because there is a huge difference between "peak coal mass" and "peak coal energy." In other words, the coal that is being mined today is much lower in quality than the coal of earlier years. Nevertheless, it seems likely that both oil and coal have not long to go. There is little that needs to be said about less-conventional fossil fuels, except that much of the public relations is designed to trap foolhardy investors.
The possible atmospheric side-effects of Peak Fuels, both upwards and downwards, are numerous. For example, there will no doubt be a severe decline in the global economy, perhaps even a downward spiral, and the lower the economy the lower the emissions. A badly damaged economy could create tensions leading to war, which would have its own environmental effects. There could also be problems with deforestation, caused in part by a greater use of wood for heating fuel. The decline in fuels, combined with a generally poor economy, could then lead to famine and consequent decline in population. On the other hand, overpopulation might result in deforestation, simply for the sake of agriculture. Every tree destroyed adds CO2 to the atmosphere.
The IPCC indicates a variety of emissions scenarios, and the models they present are only a selection of the possible futures. Nevertheless, the IPCC generally tends to downplay the likelihood that fossil fuels of all types will be in decline well before the middle of the century. Kharecha and Hansen, on the other hand, claim that such a scenario is far from impossible, and that an early decline in the use of fossil fuels would result in peak CO2 emissions at somewhere between 422 and 440 ppm, far below the dangerous levels shown in other scenarios.
There is probably no logical reason for disagreeing with the accepted figures (i.e. those of climate scientists, not of corporate-funded "think tanks") for global warming at the present time, or for the past several decades. The rates for the future are somewhat less certain, though, with estimates for the coming rise in temperature over the course of the century ranging from 2 degrees C to several times that amount. Part of the uncertainty is due to the question of how much the human race will consciously attempt to mitigate the problems. Another part of the uncertainty is due to the many complexities and synergies of the atmosphere itself. A third part, however, is due to the question of how fast the world's fossil fuels will run out, with or without any conscious attempt to reduce the use of such fuels.
All of the above, of course, is not meant to imply that the future will be trouble-free. Between one monster and another there may be not much too choose. We can, however, at least hope that the two beasts manage to kill each other off.
Sources:
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EIA. (2011). International energy outlook 2011. Retrieved from http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/
Energy Watch Group. (2007, July 10). Coal: Resources and future production. Retrieved from www.energywatchgroup.org/.../EWG_Report_Coal_10-07-20
Heinberg, R. (2009). Blackout. Gabriola Island, British Columbia: New Society.
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Höök, M., & Aleklett, K. (2009, May 1). Historical trends in American coal production and a possible future outlook. International Journal of Coal Geology. Retrieved from www.tsl.uu.se/uhdsg/Publications/USA_Coal.pdf
------, Zittel, W., Schindler, J., & Aleklett, K. (2010, June 8). Global coal production outlooks based on a logistic model. Retrieved from http://www.tsl.uu.se/uhdsg/Publications/Coal_Fuel.pdf
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Kharecha, P. A. and Hansen, J. E. (2007, April 26). Implications of "peak oil" for atmospheric CO2 and climate. Retrieved from http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/0704/0704.2782.pdf
Peter Goodchild is the author of Survival Skills of the North American Indians, published by Chicago Review Press. His email address is prjgoodchild[at] gmail.com
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