Cessation Of Growth: Voluntary And Coercive Population Control
By Jason G. Brent
18 July, 2011
Countercurrents.org
1. The Earth is finite in size.
2. Population and economic growth must cease. Infinite population and/or economic growth cannot occur on the finite Earth.
3. Both population and the economy grow in a compound/exponential manner.
4. Compound/exponential growth is the most powerful force in the universe, it overwhelms everything.
5. If anything were to grow at the compound growth rate of one percent per year it would double in about 70 years; increase by a factor of four in 140 years; a factor of eight in 210 years and a factor of 1,000 (actually 1,024) in 700 years. If growth were to continue at the same compound rate for an additional 700 years, total of 1,400 years, it would increase by a factor of 1 million and if growth continued at the same rate for a total of 2,100 years the factor would be 1 billion. At the extremely small rate of growth of one quarter of one percent (0.0025) it would take about 2,800 years, less time than from the construction of the pyramids until today, for either the economy or the population to grow by a factor of greater than 1,000. And 2,800 years is almost an infinitely small period of time when compared to the 160 million years that the dinosaurs ruled the earth.
6. Since compound/exponential growth is so powerful, both the economy and the population of the world must cease their growth in the very near future. I can state with almost absolute certainty that if either were to grow at the compound rate of one percent per year growth will cease no later than 140 years from today as such a growth rate would cause both of them to increase by a factor of four and the Earth could not support a population four times as great as the present population or a world economy four times as great as the current world economy.
7. The resources used by humanity can be divided into two groups, nonrenewable and renewable. By definition nonrenewable resources are finite and will eventually be used up by humanity. Many, if not most, renewable resources are being used up by humanity faster than nature can replace them and, therefore, they also must be considered nonrenewable.
8. Recycling, substitution of one resource for another resource, new technologies, environmentalism, and any other action taken by humanity will not permit continuous compound economic and/or population growth. Alternative energy resources will not permit continuous compound population and/or economic growth. Humanity has withdrawn from the Earth the most easily accessible resources which the Earth can provide. In the future resources will become more expensive and difficult to obtain as they will be substantially less accessible and will be more difficult to process into usable a form.
9. The concept of obtaining resources from extraterrestrial planets or transferring part of humanity to extraterrestrial planets is a non-workable fallacy.
10. There are three, and only three, ways by which population growth will be reduced to zero and/or made negative. The ways are--a) by war, with or without weapons of mass destruction, rape, murder, disease, predation, starvation, concentration camps, and other horrors beyond the imagination when humanity has exceeded the carrying capacity of the Earth (and if population continues to grow humanity will shortly exceed the carrying capacity of the Earth, if humanity already has not exceeded it). The carrying capacity of the Earth, no matter how carrying capacity is defined, cannot be infinitely large and must reach a finite number; b) by the voluntary action of all of humanity for as long as humanity inhabits the Earth, before humanity has exceeded the carrying capacity of the Earth; and c) by coercive population control before humanity has exceeded the carrying capacity of the Earth.
11. A strong argument can be made that in order for humanity to survive on this planet a substantial and dramatic reduction in the number of human beings inhabiting the planet will have to be made-- negative population growth. A number of experts (whatever the word "expert" means) have written, in my opinion, convincing papers that the Earth can not support more than 2 billion of our species for any reasonable length of time at a reasonable standard of living. No one knows if those experts are right or wrong. Nevertheless the question becomes----what consideration, if any, should the leaders of humanity give to the opinions of the experts when considering the future of our species.
12. If by some miracle humanity were instantaneously to achieve a fertility rate which would permit population to stabilize and not grow that does not mean that growth will instantaneously cease. Rather due to the current age distribution of humanity, population growth would continue for about 70 years and not cease growth until it was 50% larger than it is today. For example, if population in 2050 were 9.2 billion and if the replacement fertility rate were achieved in 2050 population would continue to grow until 2120 and until it reached 13.8 billion.
13. While many people consider the choice of the number of children a couple or an individual has an unlimited right, it is not an unlimited right which can be used to cause the deaths of billions of human beings. The right to choose how many children a couple or an individual has must be limited and controlled so that such right does not result in harm to all of humanity. No human right is absolute and every right must be considered in relation to the harm or benefit it may cause to the rest of humanity. For example, even the right to life is limited: society has the right to execute a murderer.
14. Even today with technological and weapons of mass destruction the size of the population of a nation plays an important part in the war of one nation against another nation and the need for any nation to acquire or obtain natural resources. Any nation or group that uses the penis and the womb to increase its population in relation to the population of any other nations or groups is committing an act of war against those other nations and groups and that cannot be permitted.
15. There are two, and only two, times at which population growth can be reduced to zero. Those times are before humanity has reached the carrying capacity of the Earth and after the human population has exceeded the carrying capacity of the Earth's.
16. Another way of looking at the times at which population growth can be reduced to zero---before birth and after birth. If population growth is not reduced to zero prior to birth, the population will continue to grow until it has exceeded the carrying capacity of the Earth and at that time population growth will be reduced to zero in the manner set forth in paragraph 10 subsection (a) above. In fact, not only will population growth be reduced to zero, but a substantial number of people will suffer horrific deaths. By definition, if the carrying capacity is 100 people and there are 150 people alive, the excess 50 have to die off. Nothing can prevent those deaths--by definition the carrying capacity defines the maximum number of individuals the earth can support. The only way to achieve zero population growth prior to birth is by using the best methods of modern artificial birth control presently available and for medically safe abortion , or as medically safe as any surgical procedure can be, to be made available to all of humanity cheaply or at no cost. It is a historical fact that no nation has achieved zero population growth without the availability of abortion to its citizens. Abortion is required since even the best modern methods of artificial birth control sometimes fail or are not used properly. On a worldwide basis abstinence will not reduce population growth to zero. The rhythm method demanded by the Catholic Church is not birth control. It is called Vatican roulette for a very simple reason-- its failure rate. Anyone opposed to abortion for religious or other reasons will cause the horrific deaths of living, breathing human beings as opposed to the destruction of tissue in the womb.
17. Any attempt by any nation or all of the nations of the world to maintain continuous compound economic and/or population growth will doom billions of living, breathing human beings to horrific deaths.
18. Referring to paragraph 10 above no rational person would want population growth to be reduced to zero by sub paragraph (a). A very strong case can be made that voluntary population control will not reduce population growth to zero in time prevent the horrific deaths of billions. It is almost certain that voluntary population control will not reduce the current level of the human population (estimated to reach 7.0 billion in October 2011) to whatever lower level is necessary in time prevent the horrific deaths of living, breathing, human beings, if a reduction in population is needed to prevent the horrors set forth in 10 (a) above . Even those that argue in favor of voluntary population control cannot ensure that voluntary population control will be hundred percent successful. Even the most vociferous advocates of voluntary population control must admit that they cannot guarantee it will be 100% successful-- they cannot guarantee that zero population growth will be achieved under that method of population control before humanity suffers a very large number of horrific deaths; they cannot guarantee that the absolute number of human beings alive on a planet will be reduced to whatever the level is necessary for the survival of humanity, if such a reduction is necessary. By way of example, if the advocates present a case that voluntary population control has a 70% chance of being successful, it also has a 30% chance of failure and the question then becomes--- would it be a wise course of action for humanity to accept a 30% chance of failure, since failure could/would result in the horrific deaths of a substantial number of human beings.
19. Since humanity is presently using up nonrenewable resources and since humanity is presently using up many, if not most, of the renewable resources in a manner that those resources are, in reality, nonrenewable, a very strong case can be presented that the carrying capacity of the Earth will reach a maximum and then start to decline. If the carrying capacity of the Earth were to reach a maximum number and then start to decline it is almost certain that voluntary population control will not be able to decrease population fast enough prevent the horrific deaths of billions of human beings.
20. If humanity desires to survive on this planet for any reasonable length of time at a reasonable standard of living for even a relatively small number of human beings our species must consider and evaluate coercive population control.
21. It is not my duty or obligation as the author of the points set forth above to prove that coercive population control is the solution to humanity's problems. Rather, it is the duty and obligation of those who advocate voluntary population control and refuse even to consider coercive population control to prove with almost 100% certainty that voluntary population control will prevent the growth of the population to a level which will exceed the carrying capacity of the Earth resulting in the horrific deaths of billions of human beings. Those that advocate voluntary population control and refuse to even discuss coercive population control have the obligation to show that voluntary population control will reduce the total number of human beings inhabiting the Earth to whatever lower level is necessary and at a fast enough rate to prevent the deaths of billions, if such a reduction is necessary.
22. Is not my duty or obligation as the author of the points set forth above to prove that continuous compound economic growth is impossible and will result in the destruction of billions of our species. Rather, it is the duty and obligation of those that advocate continuous economic growth to show that such growth is possible and will not destroy civilization. It is also the duty and obligation of those that advocate economic growth to show that the Earth will provide the resources that are necessary for that growth. It is the duty and obligation of those that advocate or permit growth of either the economy or population to show with almost 100% certainty that the Earth can support the estimated/predicted/projected (by the UN) 10.1 billion human beings which will inhabit the Earth in the year 2100 at the per capita usage of resources which may exist at that time.
Jason G. Brent is a frequent contributor to Countercurrents on population issues . He can be reached at [email protected]
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