The
Intelligence Business
By Admiral Vishnu
Bhagwat
26 March, 2004
Had
'Operation Iraqi Freedom" not gone sour , had the oil begun to
flow to expectations for the 'oil majors' and Afghanistan not in disarray
and near anarchy , it is doubtful if the kind of uncomfortable and noisy
debate that is reflected in the media, would emerge in the US. Not finding
WMDs is being termed an Intelligence failure-a Presidential Commission
has been appointed to report its findings by March 2005 in the US .
In UK a post- script is being played out by a committee announced by
the PM to submit its report by mid year.
WMDs or rather
the absence of WMDs would hardly matter to the Executive Branch in normal
circumstances . It is the politics of the decision to invade Iraq and
execute a regime change, through use of military force that needs to
be justified to the growing number of critics , gathering into a storm,
that has to be cooled. After all the indiscriminate and disastrous use
of 'Depleted Uranium munitions', the 'Silent WMDs' in Afghanistan and
Iraq ( earlier in Kosovo, has not evoked the opposition that its use
deserves, yet.)
The appearance
of George Tenet , Director , Central Intelligence , first at the UN
Security Council and last week at Georgetown University , televised
live by the CNN, BBC and other networks in 'defense' of the CIA is as
astonishing as it is unprecedented. The CIA of course has an excellent
group of experienced analysts who help prepare the draft ' national
intelligence estimates' which are processed through the National Security
Council's, second tier, as a sound staff vetting before the NSC's proper
scrutiny , before they , with the assent of the President, become formalised.
The NIEs are usually prepared ,country wise .However they could also
be region-wise or subject wise . This has been a sound practice as it
demands accountability from the $40 billion CIA budget and more importantly
that its priorities are strictly in accord with its 'tasking' by the
President/NSC . However the CIA's over-riding purpose is 'Operations,
covert and overt, where its energies are
directed. Its intelligence gathering is facilitated by a host of organizations/
institutions , with global reach , including the media , financial institutions
and 'technological means'. The US Intelligence apparatus is supported
by the willing participation of the Western Alliance systems, the G-7,
their myriad fronts and associate business , social , cultural and media
fronts. The technical means , include the giant 'US National Security
Agency( bigger than the CIA), the Defense Intelligence Agency( both
under the Pentagon), GCHQ Cheltenham, UK, the North West Cape, Australia
facility and a host of others hosted ,like the US military bases and
facilities in a hundred countries. The pointer to US Intelligence is
only because it is probably the best example of a sound and successful
Intelligence set up.
Intelligence agencies
, no matter their track record and excellence ,ultimately deliver only
when after the 'national tasking' by the political executive have a
healthy tradition of professionalism, and enjoy autonomy of functioning.
If they begin to look over their shoulders to take cues from the political
masters , they are compromising their integrity and therefore their
ability to serve the national interest or even the interest of a particular
government . That is one reason why the CIA was legitimized by the National
Security Act 1947 . Sometimes in the past, Heads of the CIA , MI-5/6
have been perceived as 'independent' of the Chief Executive and even
had a British PM , like Harold Wilson , under surveillance because the
Intelligence establishment thought he had been too close to the Soviets!
Certainly , people close to the political executive are meant to be
under the watchful eyes of counter-intelligence and State security requires
this .
The point that
is sought to be made is that national intelligence organizations are
necessarily committed to the national vision and goals. They are its
strategic arm . While following annual tasking by the Executive arm
of the Govt . they should not become subservient to its political manipulation
or partisan viewpoint. In our own case in the late 1950s and 1960s,
the Intelligence Bureau appeared to be suborned to an external intelligence
agency's manipulation, contributing to a national debacle. Later it
had to be rescued , split and a separate external intelligence agency
created, which made a substantive contribution to several national enterprises
including the victory in 1971 . This agency , the R&AW was weakened
in 1977-80 and again started to get manipulated thereafter, permitting
its own subversion ; leading to the assassination of two Prime-ministers
in 1984 and 1991; followed by a string of fiascos like the LTTE , Srilanka
and Afghanistan, to name just
a few. The report of the erstwhile JIC Chairman , Khandelwal, hardly
set matters right and was neatly filed. Kargil ,was the result of both
the MOD, the General Staff, being lulled by the magic of Lahore. President
Reagan's wise words in the US -Soviet dialogue , "Trust but verify"
have been forgotten on home-ground. The maxim for the armed forces had
always been that apparently successful diplomacy does not permit the
lowering of the guard.
A sound and solid
political vision and economic strength is a pre-requisite to successful
intelligence operations contributing to enhancing the national interest.
When the 'co- relation of forces' is more or less evenly matched , good
intelligence can and does make the difference, but like politics it
is also dependent on the stakes that the majority of the people have
in the system. Apathy and disenchantment may make it very difficult
for the agencies to perform , even though intelligence organisations
which have been subverted , often use this very environment to turn
people away from democracy to fascism.
In the last century,
there were a number of inflexion way-points that changed events beyond
the control of ordinary institutions: the October 1917 Soviet revolution,
Gandhiji's non-violent freedom movement, the aftermath of the second
world war and the creation of the Bretton Woods International financial
institutions, concurrent with the Hiroshima- Nagasaki bombs to terrorise
and play on people's fear and insecurity; the steady rise of 'finance
capital' after 1975, the steady decline of the socialist world through
masterful subversion of its key institutions ,including the Politbureaus,so
well described by Yuri Andropov , the head of the KGB, and the weakening
of its ideology.The capitalist system too has been in decline since
1980, except for its illusory peak in the mid 1990s.
1997 was just the
opportune moment for Brzezinski's 'The Grand Chessboard' , a game-plan
for the domination of Eurasia by the sole super power. Fukiyama's boastful
'The End of History' and Huntington's 'Clash of Civilisation' were the
philosophical underpinnings of the draft of the 'Project for the New
American Century', Rebuilding America's Defenses: Strategy, Forces,
Resources for the new Century. The Grand Chessboard and the PNAC(made
public in September 2002) are a quest for world hegemony , not necessarily
through the control of territory ,except for temporary periods, but
resources and markets, through the agency of the MNCs , WTO, WB-IMF
navigated by the Department of the Treasury and ultimately by the Wall
Street( Investment Banks). The prizes are oil, gas , strategic and high
value minerals , drug money and laundered money as the means of accumulation
of surplus. Deregulation, liberalization, free-trade , privatization
are buzz words . Brzezinski
prognosticates that the control of Eurasia is central to this new imperialist
enterprise, which Britain's think tanks have already justified in several
postulations ( Prime Minister of UK, Mr Blair's Chief Foreign Policy
Adviser, Robert Cooper in a written paper in a pamphlet with Blair's
foreword published by the 'Foreign Policy Center, London , called for
a 'new / defensive imperialism' in respect of Afghanistan and such other
states which Cooper reiterated at a conference on Afghanistan held in
Germany in April/May 2000.) But Brzezinski with his deep perceptions
also argued the conclusion that the central and west Asian region ,
specially the CAR will be the next major region of conflict , starting
Pakistan and north-westwards to Kazhakastan which will be an anchor
for the new enterprise (see map) The 'War on Terror' is just a punctuation
in the new century of 'unending wars'.
At this inflexion
point where the '500 Billionaires club' has more wealth than the less
worthy 2.6 billion people of the world, Brzezinski philosophises that
'democracies are inimical to imperialist mobilization'. Before we revert
to the efficiencies or the productivity of the Intelligence organisations
which must necessarily have their networks and co-opted institutions/groups/individuals
spread world wide, specially in the targeted resources (not necessarily
territories ),let us look at some of their more favourable opportunities
and fundamentals which facilitate their operations.
Brzezinski underlines that the 'American global system emphasises the
technique of co-optation to a much greater extent than the earlier empires
did. It likewise relies heavily on the indirect ( perhaps direct too)
exercise of influence on dependent foreign elites, while drawing much
benefit from the appeal of its democracy and institutions ( albeit eroded
after Iraq and the current domestic Patriot Act etc). All of the foregoing
are reinforced by the domination of global communications, popular entertainment,
and mass culture and by the potentially tangible (felt) clout of American
technological edge and global military reach ( and presence).'
'America has become
a Mecca for those seeking advanced education with approximately half
a million students flocking to the US , with many of the ablest never
returning home. Gradautes from American universities and are to be found
in almost every Cabinet in every continent.' ( and in every civil ,
military , intelligence and financial institution of the State)
Brzezinski elaborates
, 'Special security arrangements in the Persian gulf , specially after
the brief punitive mission in 1991 against Iraq, have made that economically
vital region into an American military preserve. Even the former Soviet
space is permeated by various American sponsored arrangements for closer
co-operation with NATO'. EU , finance capital, oil majors and naturally
the Intelligence agencies, stretching from East Europe, Georgia, Azerbaijan
to Khazakastan are all hungry to control energy reserves in the CAR.
Afganistan , Pakistan and Kashmir are part of the game plan, a friendly
co-opted regime in India is a valued asset
Brzezinski continues
in the Grand Chessboard , ' .one must consider as part of the American
system the global web of specialised organizations, specially the "international"
financial institutions. The IMF, the WB (and BIS) can be said to represent
"global" interests (global finance capital, added). In reality
however they are heavily American dominated and their origins are traceable
to American initiative...Bretton Woods 1944.' ( and added Basel Convention
2000) ...' Rather America stands at the center of the interlocking universe
and the consensus /dialogue (Washington Consensus ) that power originates
from a single source , Washington DC'.
Brzezinski may
well have said ' Wall Street' for that is where it really belongs .
So most of the Directors , Deputy Directors and third echelon heirarchy
is drawn from wall street lawyers and bankers , who have actually been
been reorganising the CIA set up from time to time, to serve their interests.Political
scientist G.John Ikenberry using political sophistry adds, ' Europeans
.....and the Japanese , were able to reconstruct their societies and
economies in ways that were congenial with American hegemony but also
with room to experiment their own autonomous and semi-independent political
systems..'
Huntington also
asserts that a world 'without US primacy will be a world with more violence
and disorder and less democracy and economic growth than a world where
the US continues to have more influence than any other country in shaping
global affairs.'
Brzezinski concedes
that that 'while America's global hegemony is admittedly great , but
its depth is shallow, limited by both domestic (and one may add declining
economic power) and external restraints. The dynamics and potential
of Eurasia places a premium on geo -strategic skill, on the careful
, selective and very deliberate deployment of America's resources on
the huge Eurasian chessboard.' Here perhaps lies the root of the failure
of US policies in West Asia and Afghanistan where the resistance of
the Palestinian and Iraqi people was discounted by the US Government,
and then the military men in uniform and the intelligence community
in the US and UK have been left to hold the baby and to face domestic
public opinion, as scape-goats . The principle was in part applicable
to the Indian intelligence agencies in the case of Kargil.
The three grand
imperatives of imperial geo- strategy, writes Zbigniew Brzezinski are
to prevent collusion and maintain security dependence among the vassals
, to keep tributaries pliant and protected, and to keep the barbarians
from coming together.' A more apt description of the state of play in
West Asia and the Central/South Asian region would be difficult to find.
Now the CIA , Mossad
and the co-opted Western alliance intelligence t agencies have their
job cut out , and they have been so hugely successful in the past ,in
securing the precious resources for the Imperial centre,be it from Latin
America , South Africa, Congo , Zaire, Sierre Lone , Guinea, Nigeria,
Saudi Arabia , Kuwait, UAE, Iran (pre1979), Indonesia , South Korea,
Phillipines, East Europe, Ukraine and Russia , to name only a few ,replete
with a history of assassinations and regime changes, that it would appear
that nothing would stop them from delivering on their further tasks
.Apparently there is some difficulty in this 'new world order.' Maybe
it is imperial over -stretch, maybe an over drive in imperial / corporate
ambitions for control and profits.
Enron was not simply
an 'Energy trading' company . It had over 300 subsidiaries in the Cayman
islands. It navigated perhaps the biggest drug money laundering operations
in the world, that being the shortest cut to raise the market value
of company stock on the NYSE and NASSDAQ. The lawyers , investment bankers
and the accounting firms all were party to it . One domino fell and
the others too rolled. ( The estimated flow of drug money is $ 700 million
annually. The United Nations estimates of 'criminal' money is $ 1.7
trillion per year). That gives unlimited opportunities for the Big Intelligence
agencies to compromise and blackmail top officials , prominent members
of the local ruling establishment , political parties and groups in
countries connected with these activities including the big names that
initiate 'flight of capital' and recycling of official aids/grants to
dollar accounts abroad as has been the wide spread practice in Latin
America and Africa in
particular , in the past.
In Afghanistan the
abonimable Taliban, bank rolled by the US Government agencies destroyed
the opium crop planted inNovember 2001, and therefore indirectly assaulted
the liquidity of the Big ,big banks and dropped accidently a big economic
bomb, where it hurt.
The big intelligence
agencies have a massive job to do.The Vetera Intelligence Professional
for Sanity, VIPS, Ambassador Joseph and Scott Ritter, Head, UN Weapons
Inspection Team Iraq 1991-98) have raised their voices. So have serving
and retired top -notchers in the UK ( Brian Jones , MOD's top WMD analyst
is quoted as saying that intelligence experts of the UK Defence Intelligence
Staff were over-ruled)* , Israel , Germany and Australia. Vincent Cannstaro
, former Head of CIA Counter-intelligence says ,' basically cooked information
is working into high-level pronouncements." The Commission set
up by President Bush may well end up reshaping the Intelligence institutions
in the image ofthe right( a la Pentagon's Office of Special Plans, created
recently by Defense Secretary Rumsfeld 'to offer a more alarming picture
of the Iraq threat than the Intelligence professionals were willing
to Provide,' writes Paul Krugman in the New York Times. The Senate Intelligence
Committee has since departed from the standards earlier set by Senator
Church. Professional intelligence officers are standing up in the West
to resist politiciztion of national intelligence
institutions .
Another challenge
that faces the big intelligence agencies is that while they have over
the years built up valueable 'assets' and 'sleepers' in target areas
and countries there appears to be a new 'fly in the ointment'. Margaret
D Tutwiler , US State Department in charge of public diplomacy , in
her very recent testimony before a Congressional sub-committee, acknowledged
that America's image abroad had deteriorated to such an extent that
" it will take us many years of hard, focussed work" to restore
it. "Unfortunately our country has a problem in far too many parts
of the world, ..a problem that we have gotten into many years through
both Democrat and Republican administrations and a problem that does
not lend itself to a quick fix or a single solution or a simple plan."
That makes the operational working environment a little difficult ,
but not impossible for the 'Department of Dirty Tricks' of Intelligence
outfits. It may also have the effect of making them more aggressive
and desperate.
Our intelligence
agencies need to focus particular attention towards the financial warriors
waging economic warfare against the nation , speculators , currency
traders , the invisible faces that manipulate the 'participatory notes'
and the levers of 'forward trading', mergers and acquisitions, the ones
who control and exploit the ' Mauritius Route' and those that are pirating
the surpluses generated by the hardworking people of India and the rest
of the 'third world' to the 'first world'( classic case of reverse transfer
of wealth). 'Follow the money trail is a time tested maxim'.
For us in the developing
countries the object lesson is that when political establishments get
suborned , Intelligence agencies usually follow in the wake. It is hard
then to find gentlemen who having sworn to defend and protect the Constitution
and the national interest, stand up and say "Not in my watch !"
Admiral Vishnu
Bhagwat is former Chief of the Naval Staff, India