Political
Tensions In Lebanon
Threaten Civil War
By Jean Shaoul
02 October, 2007
WSWS.org
The
massive car bomb in Beirut on September 19 that killed Antoine Ghanem,
a leading Christian Maronite MP from the far-right Phalange, and five
others has further eroded the slim majority of Fouad Seniora’s
government and delayed the selection of the next president.
It has intensified longstanding
political tensions that threaten to erupt into all out civil war in
Lebanon. The country is now the focal point in a regionwide contest
between the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, France and its allies,
and Syria, Iran and its allies, Hezbollah and Amal within Lebanon and
Hamas in Palestine.
Washington’s objective
is to reduce the country to a virtual US protectorate as a precursor
to regime change in Syria and Iran in order to establish its own hegemony
in the oil-rich region. Its machinations take place against the backdrop
of Israel’s war against Lebanon last year that killed more than
1,200 people and destroyed vast swathes of its infrastructure and tens
of thousands of homes, as well as constant US provocations against Iran,
an unexplained Israeli air strike against Syria and a major military
build-up in the Gulf.
Ghanem was the sixth politician
allied to the pro-Washington government to be assassinated since the
murder in February 2005 of the billionaire prime minister, Rafiq Hariri.
Dozens of innocent bystanders have perished in this wave of bombings
for which not a single person has been charged.
The assassinations have widely
been attributed in the international media to Syria or Syrian-allied
factions within Lebanon, although no evidence has been put forward to
substantiate such claims, and Syria has strongly denied any involvement.
The Syrian government is
more than capable of carrying out the assassination of its political
opponents, but it is hard to see why it would exacerbate tensions at
a time when it is seeking an accommodation with Washington that would
avert the threat of war. In 1996, the neo-cons now in the Bush administration
outlined plans in A Clean Break: Securing the Realm for neutering Syria
via Lebanon. They called for the containment of Syria, citing its support
for Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas, and rejected any “land for peace”
deals on the Golan Heights. More recently, the US has sought a United
Nations tribunal to investigate Syria’s involvement in Hariri’s
murder.
It is also entirely possible
that the killing was a provocation organised by Israeli or American
intelligence agencies to create a pretext for carrying through an assault
on Hezbollah and Syria under the cover of the UN. In a country awash
with security forces, it is hard to believe that suspects would not
by now have been rounded up and charged if the government or its allies
were not in some way complicit.
Under UN Security Council
resolution 1701 that ended Israel’s 33-day bombardment last year,
UNIFIL’s expanded forces in Lebanon, which include NATO personnel,
are to assist the security of the Lebanese government and prevent the
import of arms. Once again, the UN is providing a fig leaf for Washington’s
military operations in the region.
Ghanem’s death brought
to 68 the number that Seniora’s US-backed coalition government
could muster in the 128-member Chamber of Deputies, which has all but
ceased to function since Hezbollah members pulled out of the coalition
government and boycotted the Chamber in December of last year.
The Islamists had backed
most of the government’s neo-liberal policies, but fell out with
Seniora over their demand for greater representation in the government
and constitutional changes in line with their electoral and demographic
support, Seniora’s support for an international tribunal to try
suspects in the assassination of Hariri, and opposition to the disarming
of Hezbollah’s militant wing.
Support for Hezbollah grew
in the wake of its defiant opposition to the Washington-backed bombardment
by Israel, while the government was widely seen as collaborating with
Israel against Hezbollah.
Hezbollah has also opposed
the draconian terms of the Paris donor conference last January, which
demanded that in return for aid—yet to materialise—for “reconstruction”
after Israel’s bombing campaign that cost Lebanon at least US$15
billion, value-added tax must be raised from 10 to 12 percent next year
and 15 percent in 2010. This comes on top of fiscal measures, the sale
of state-owned assets and “labour market flexibilities”
to pay for Lebanon’s massive US$41 billion public debt, the legacy
of the Hariri government.
Such measures would fall
hardest on the impoverished Shia and Palestinians living in squalid
refugee camps that are the Hezbollah’s social base. Far from financing
the reconstruction of Lebanon, the Shia would be servicing Lebanon’s
debt and paying for the army to suppress Hezbollah militants and their
own communities in southern Lebanon.
Much of the little aid that
Lebanon has received has come from Iran, which has further bolstered
Hezbollah’s support, while the Seniora government’s paltry
compensation for damaged homes and property has discriminated against
the Shia.
Hezbollah has since January
mounted massive demonstrations against the government and camped outside
government buildings in downtown Beirut.
Locked in a power struggle
with Hezbollah and backed by Washington, Seniora is anxious to replace
the pro-Syrian president, Emile Lahoud, due to leave office on November
24, with someone more sympathetic to his own party.
Tensions were further heightened
last Tuesday when several thousand soldiers, police and tanks cordoned
off the parliament building for the session to elect a replacement for
Lahoud. Security forces escorted anti-Syrian legislators to the parliament
from the Phoenicia Hotel on the Corniche where they had been staying
under armed guard.
By convention, the president
must be a Maronite Christian, most of who are anti-Syrian.
While the ruling Sunni Muslim,
Druze and Christian coalition, known as the March 14th Alliance, wants
someone from their own camp, such a candidate would be an anathema to
the impoverished Shias, who make up more than one third of the electorate.
The rules require a two-thirds quorum of the 128 legislators for the
first round of votes.
There are three candidates
from the ruling coalition: Boutros Harb, a lawyer and former minister;
Robert Ghanem; and Nassib Lahoud, a cousin of the present president
and former ambassador to the US. Washington’s preferred candidate
is Riad Salameh, long-time governor of the Bank of Lebanon. But he is
barred as a government employee from standing.
Army commander Michel Suleiman
suppressed the Fatah al-Islam uprising in Nahr Al-Bared, the Palestinian
refugee camp in northern Lebanon, with the backing of the US, the European
powers, the Saudis, Egyptians and Jordanians. He is seen by some, including
Hezbollah, as another possible candidate. But he too is barred as a
government employee from standing.
Former General Michel Aoun
of the anti-Syrian Christian Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) made a tactical
alliance with his former enemies, the Shiite Moslems, in February 2006,
as a means of gaining the support needed to get himself elected president.
Aoun is widely distrusted. He ran a virtual military dictatorship in
the Christian enclaves in opposition to an elected Muslim government
during the last years of Lebanon’s civil war from 1989 to 1991,
until he was defeated by the pro-Syrian forces and driven into exile
in France, where he remained until the Syrians left Lebanon in 2005.
Washington is determined
that a pro-US candidate wins the presidency. The US ambassador, Jeffrey
Feltman, a vocal supporter of the March 14th Alliance, said that Lebanon
was a strategic partner for the US in the Middle East, and has prolonged
his stay in Lebanon until after the election, while his replacement
has remained in the United Arab Emirates. The Syrians see this as an
attempt by the US to manipulate the elections via Feltman.
Unable to reach an agreement
with the government on a consensus candidate, most of the 58 opposition
MPs from Hezbollah, Amal and Aoun’s Christian Free Patriotic Movement
(FPM) boycotted the session in order to prevent Seniora’s allies
from selecting a pro-US president and thus gaining complete control
of Lebanon.
Nabih Berri, the Speaker
drawn as the constitution requires from the Shiite community, adjourned
the Chamber of Deputies for four weeks, in order to give the parties
more time to agree on a compromise candidate.
The current standoff has
the potential to produce two rival governments and reignite civil war.
If the chamber is unable to elect a president by November 24, the outgoing
president could name an interim administration—setting the scene
for dual power. Lahoud has threatened to appoint a military government
if no agreement is reached.
The ruling clique has already
threatened to elect a president with the simple majority it still commands
in the chamber, even if there is no agreement on a consensus candidate.
In a country that has seen
the assassination of two Lebanese presidents before they could take
office and interventions by the US, Israel and Syria to try to secure
the presidency for their own puppets, an attempt to bypass the two-thirds
rule could ignite civil war.
The opposition has declared
that such a move would be illegal and tantamount to a declaration of
war. Aoun warned against such a vote, saying, “Our message is
clear. The issue of the legal quorum is not open to discussion and countries
that support such a president [elected by a simple majority] would have
to send in their armies to protect him.”
Whoever becomes president
will face the increasingly difficult task of imposing an economic and
foreign policy agenda dictated by international capital that is inimical
to the broad mass of the population, under conditions in which the US
is determined to find a pretext for attacking Syria and Iran.
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