Iran
Forces The Issue In Afghanistan
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
07 June, 2007
Asia
Times Online
ISLAM QALA, Iran-Afghanistan
border - When Iran announced in February that it was undertaking
a thorough regularization of aliens on its soil, ears in the West pricked
up, but not much was read into it.
However, the subsequent expulsion
of thousands of Afghan refugees indicates the twofold motive behind
the move. First, Iran wanted to weaken Sunni-led insurgents in its bordering
areas, and second, it believed that the return of the refugees would
fuel the Taliban-led insurgency in Afghanistan.
The second calculation, compounded
by a political miscalculation on the part of the Afghan government,
has already borne fruit, in the process providing the United States
with another area on which it needs to consult Tehran.
On April 23, Iran sent back
4,000 undocumented Afghans to Zaranj, Nimroz province, followed the
next day by the same number. All of them had been living in the Iranian
Sunni-dominated Zabol-Zahedan region of Sistan-Balochistan province
and had originally hailed from Nimroz and Farah provinces. An estimated
1 million Afghan refugees live in Iran.
According to the United Nations
Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, up to the beginning of this month,
98,712 persons had been deported since April 23 - the largest number
ever send back from Iran in such a short period. Almost all of them
were sent from the Zaranj border crossing. They were said to have refused
to comply with a decision by the Iranian government to declare the Zabol-Zahedan
area a "no-go" zone for "foreigners".
In fact, observers claim
that Tehran wants to clear all people, local or foreign, from the Sunni-dominated
area to minimize the chances of insurgents securing safe sanctuaries
in the remote regions of Zahedan and Zabol.
Zahedan has traditionally
been the base of the Mujahideen-e-Khalq (MEK - People's Mujahideen),
which has conducted terror acts in Iran. And recently an organization
called Jundallah emerged from the area to carry out terrorist activities
against Iranian security forces.
Jundallah is a hardline Sunni
Islamist group drawn from the Baloch population of Iran, as well as
Balochs from Pakistan (Balochistan province) and Afghanistan (Farah
and Nimroz provinces).
Zabol's vastness has served
as a safe haven for the Taliban, as the local population is sympathetic
to them. One of Osama bin Laden's sons, Saad, was arrested from Zabol
by Iranian authorities. This was never officially announced, and some
reports say he was released last July.
According to field officers
of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, although they
made every effort to stem the flood of refugees, they have had little
success and they are struggling to cope with the numbers. About 1,300
a day are still streaming across the border, most of them headed for
their home provinces of Farah and Nimroz.
The situation is a serious
concern for Kabul as well as its international supporters. The province
of Farah, in western Afghanistan near Herat province, was virtually
in the hands of the Taliban until last November, but constant operations
by North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Afghan forces forced
the Taliban back. Nevertheless, in the ongoing spring offensive, the
Taliban are re-establishing their influence.
After a surge in attacks
since last month, the Herat-Farah highway has been declared insecure
and officials of international agencies are banned from traveling on
it - they have to use NATO or UN air services.
"The most alarming thing
is the gradual increase in the activities of the Taliban in Farah and
Nimroz and the return of the Afghan refugees. They are poor and needy
and naturally will fuel the Taliban insurgency," a senior official
of an international agency told Asia Times Online on condition of anonymity.
However, other factors will
help make western Afghanistan a new hub of Taliban activities this year.
Sayed Hussain Anwari, a Shi'ite ethnic Hazara, was installed as governor
of Herat this year in the predominantly Tajik-Sunni province.
Anwari is a bitter rival
of a legendary Afghan commander of the resistance against the Soviets
in the 1980s, Ismail Khan, and Anwari's appointment by Kabul was an
open declaration of war against Khan and his formidable support. Khan
was sacked as governor in September 2004. As a conciliatory gesture,
President Hamid Karzai appointed him minister of energy.
The consequences of sidelining
the powerful Khan are being manifested in the re-emergence of the Taliban
in the northwestern provinces of Herat (Shindand), Farah, Nimroz and
Ghor through the facilitation of local warlords, many of them Khan supporters.
To date, Iranian diplomacy
has been effective in keeping the US war machine at bay in the Persian
Gulf and even compelled the Americans to open dialogue with Iran over
its role in Iraq and the region. Northwestern Afghanistan is the latest
front on which the Americans need to make a bargain with Tehran.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia
Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can be reached at [email protected]
Copyright 2007 Asia Times
Online Ltd
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