The Party Is
Over
By Jeff Berg
04 October, 2005
Countercurrents.org
"In
1950, oil demand was 10 million barrels a day globally. By 1970, it
was 50 mbd, but while demand grew five-fold, price stayed constant;
oil was still selling at $1 a barrel. When U.S. production peaked in
1970, Saudi oil prices soared 18-fold between Jan. 1, 1970 and mid-June
1979, as demand grew another 15 mbd. "So for the concept that high
prices quickly killed demand, there was never any supporting data,"
said Simmons. Iran's and Kuwait's oil production peaked in 1972, but
no one noticed. "People continued to have this concept that there's
oil in the Middle East and it's going to last forever," Simmons
said. The second oil shock hit in 1979, when prices suddenly shot up
from $18 to $40 a barrel, or about $105 per barrel in 2005 dollars.
As a result, the U.S. finally curbed oil demand for about four years,
Simmons said. Between 1979-1985, "We rolled out nuclear power and
our coal plants got upgraded so they could operate at 100 percent,"
Simmons said. "To produce electricity from coal was vastly cheaper
than using oil. In one short period of time we backed out oil as a feed
stock for boiler fuel and electricity once and for all." At the
same time, the U.S. exported "a big chunk of heavy manufacturing
to Europe and Japan." The combination above resulted in four years
when world demand actually fell, "prompting a great many people
to say, 'Whoops, it just goes to show that if prices ever get high,
demand just gets cannibalized,' " Simmons said. "Yet there
was never any data for that." (Jeanne Kobnak Ball- We could be
looking at $10 gas this winter)
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/093005_world_stories.shtml
False assumption
after false assumption has been central to the public policy and economic
infrastructure mistakes we have made over the last three decades. Assumptions
that have led us to orient our economy to an ever greater degree around
fossil fuels and energy consumption. A great many scientists, geologists,
climatologists, and researchers and writers of all stripes have amply
demonstrated the flaws inherent in these assumptions for over THIRTY
YEARS and yet less than nothing has changed. In point of fact in opposition
to the fundamental realities with which we are faced we have in defiance
of all logic and wisdom become even greater consumers of energy; to
the point that North Americans now consume on the order of 8000 kilos
of the stuff per capita. This defiance of geological and environmental
reality has of course very well served those who own the 12 trillion
or so dollars worth of assets that serve the current energy order. One
of the ugliest bits of irony about our situation is that the very same
people who are responsible for industries intransigence are the very
same ones who will not have their lives very greatly impacted by much
higher energy prices. No the car industry moguls and their destruction
of CAFE standards and their creation of an SUV fleet when the very opposite
was crucial to collective prosperity will be very little impacted by
their colossally short-sighted greed. The Reaganites like Cheney, Bush
Sr. and James Baker who created the "Morning in America" myth
and tore the solar panels off the roof of the White House when they
should have been putting a windmill on its lawn will feel virtually
no difference in their lives when environmental degradation and resource
depletion come calling for the debt they are long overdue to be paid.
The captains and titans of our corporate monoliths and those who have
been the pilots of our ship of state have salted away literally hundreds
of millions into their personal fortunes ensuring that they and theirs
feel no pain when the payment comes due for the last thirty years of
misspent investment capital.
As Paul Krugman
wrote in the Great Unravelling, as Jane Jacobs writes in Dark Ages Ahead
as Seymour Melman wrote for the whole of his professional life, we in
North America have been robbing the future to pay for a profligate present.
These thinkers reveal to us the degree to which we have allowed our
public institutions and infrastructure to decay for the sake of corporate
tax cuts and literally insane levels of corporate welfare via massive
military spending. They are talking about the ways in which we have
failed to properly invest scarce financial capital in areas that would
provide the greatest multiplier effect. When this reality is combined
with the several orders of magnitude higher costs inherent in the massive
economic dislocation that will arise as a result of hydrocarbon energy
depletion one begins to get a sense of the problems that our leadership
has created for us all. A problem, again, that they and theirs will
be largely immune from and a problem that will cruelly and disproportionately
strike those who have been least responsible for its creation.
The obstruction
of the essential bridges we will need to cross over into the promised
land of tomorrows energy future is the very same intransigence that
made vast sums of money for the 1/100 of 1% that controls 50% of North
Americas wealth and virtually 100% of its decision making power. As
a result of their cashing in on an asset inertia that has served to
cripple the future of our children and our children's children they
will have no trouble avoiding the enormous economic pain that will visit
us here as a result of global oil scarcity and North America's natural
gas shortages. (home heating prices will very likely rocket up this
winter)
The essence of democracy
is the impact of public opinion on public policy. This impact has been
sorely lacking for the last 25 years and the fissures in the social
compact that have resulted from this lack are now sufficient to rupture
our societies in ways that will be almost impossible to repair. The
war in Iraq and the hurricane in New Orleans have laid bare the moral
and fiscal nightmare that America's citizens have sleepwalked into.
We the citizens of North America have been somnambulant and content
for so long that we have lost control of our institutions. Our elite
on the other hand, as always, never tired and never slept and as a result
of their untrammelled successes over the last twenty five years in subverting
social equity and concentrating wealth and power they have fallen prey
to fatal arrogance. Where they saw boldness the citizenry if they had
been awake would have seen hubris. Where they saw the natural order
of things we if we had been awake would have seen the preying of the
strong on the weak. Where they saw the ineluctable laws of the marketplace
and the inevitability of the status quo we should have seen self-serving
short-sightedness and a system that was failing the first test of survival;
adaptation to changing circumstances.
The final expression
of this arrogance and its inability to face up to physical limits and
the laws of nature and physics has come at the hands of the leadership
of the neocon cabal that has led America to its current state of moral
and fiscal imbalance. They believed themselves uniquely capable of using
America's military pre-eminence in such a way as to shape Middle Eastern
society so that its elite would see it as being in its own interest
to continue to suit American interests for the next fifty years. They
believed that as the leaders of the sole remaining superpower, as the
operators of the worlds largest economy and as the controllers of the
printing presses to the foreign currency reserve for the world that
they had every lever needed to force the elites of the Middle East to
kowtow to America's power and to align their interests with the needs
of America's business class. They believed as the country that controls
the World Bank (51% owned by the Fed) and as the country that along
with Europe effectively controls the IMF and the WTO, that they had
every carrot needed once their stick had its say. As Straussians and
elitists these recycled Reaganites believed themselves obligated by
the duty of unique ability to take advantage of America's relative strengths
to establish an American hegemony that could weather the resource and
ecological storms that are sure to beset this century.
What they failed
to see and why their project has ended before this century has really
had a chance to get started is that cooperation not competition is the
vanguard of the future. Cooperation not competition must define a future
that combines nuclear warheads and strict environmental and resource
constraints. Cooperation not competition is the essence of democracy
and justice and cooperation not competition is the spirit that we as
humans desire to see venerated and expressed by our public policy.
As elitists who
are immune to paying for their mistakes, who like the CEO's of so many
of today's failed corporations are guaranteed the most golden of parachutes,
they have become divorced from the reality that governs the life of
99+% of the human animals that will breathe the air today on this tiny
sphere of ours as it hurtles through the eternal night of space. As
a result of their alienation from the vulnerability that guides the
actions of the rest of us they have slipped into seeing themselves as
larger than life actors whose 'real' life takes place on the metaphysical
stage of history. A stage of grandeur and conquest populated by "great
men" who become great because they have the "vision"
that allows them to know when to seize those moments in history that
allow empires and the very reality of the future of whole societies
to be shaped. These men, these men of yesterday and yesteryear, are
steeped in a history that has been overtaken by a modernity that disallows
international aggression. A modernity that understands that the very
planet upon which we stand is incapable of withstanding the blows we
are now capable of dealing it. These men, these classic men, long to
return us to the classicism of empire and the "nobility" of
conquest and "great civilizations" and elites. As such they
completely fail to understand the reality of our situation, they completely
fail to understand the reality of the limits with which we are faced.
There was a time
only a few decades ago that the inevitability of progress was seemingly
assured. We had left the Second World War behind us and the prosperity
of the 50's seemed guaranteed to continue forever. Nuclear power would
give us power so cheaply that it would be unmetered. The kittyhawk had
given way to supersonic jets and space was to be the next and final
frontier. If one looks back charitably and honestly on this era one
can perhaps understand their exuberance as irrational as it was. But
it is now fifty years later. The Club of Rome and the Spirit of 72 were
over thirty years ago. Empiricism allows us to know the limits to growth.
We have been warned, we know what needs to be done and our leadership
is not doing it. The reality of today and the future of tomorrow is
not limitless but bounded. Bounded by geology, hydrology, emissions
and sinks. Bounded by soil salination, population, desertification and
we had better not blink. It is time for us to put our eyes back on the
ball. (one will no longer do) The party is over, our leadership has
failed us, it is past time to put public opinion back into public policy.
For now I leave
you with the double edged sword left to us by America's granddaddy of
geophysics and the father of the study of oil depletion M. King Hubbert;
"Our ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use what we know."
ton confrere,
Jeff Berg