Climate
Change Threatens
The Fight To End Poverty
By Rajendra Pachauri
16 October, 2007
Sydney
Morning Herald
The
former United Nations secretary-general, Kofi Annan, brought about a
remarkable consensus among world leaders to establish the Millennium
Development Goals and for the world to meet these by 2015. But, as Annan’s
successor, Ban Ki-moon, told about 80 heads of state and government
in September, it is now clear that climate change threatens the achievement
of these goals, so vital to the wellbeing of human society and the elimination
of widespread poverty.
Why is global action urgent
and necessary to meet the challenge of climate change? The Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change has determined that warming of the climate is
unequivocal; further, that average northern hemisphere temperatures
during the second half of the 20th century were very likely higher than
for any other 50-year period in the past 500 years and likely the highest
in at least the past 1300 years.
The panel has also determined
that most of the observed increase in temperatures since the mid-20th
century is very likely due to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse
gas concentrations.
But climate change is not
taking place in a smooth, linear fashion. For instance, the frequency
of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas and
so also the duration and intensity of droughts, particularly in the
tropics and subtropics.
Climate change is likely
to add to several stresses that already exist in the poorest regions
of the world and affect the ability of societies in these regions to
pursue sustainable livelihoods.
By 2020 between 75 million
and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to an increase in
water stress due to climate change in Africa. Coupled with increased
demand, this will adversely affect livelihoods and exacerbate water-related
problems.
Another sector likely to
be affected adversely in some of the poorest regions of the world is
agriculture. It has been assessed that agricultural production in many
African countries and regions would be severely compromised by climate
variability and change.
The area suitable for agriculture,
the length of growing seasons and yield potential - particularly along
the margins of semi-arid and arid areas - are expected to decrease.
In some countries yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced
by up to 50 per cent by 2020.
Another serious impact of
climate change is the melting of glaciers all over the world, and this
has serious implications for South Asia and parts of China. Glacial
melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding and rock avalanches
from destabilised slopes and affect water resources downstream within
the next two to three decades, due to decreased river flow as the glaciers
recede.
Water availability is projected
to be affected in Central, South, East and South-East Asia. Given the
fact that population growth and increasing demand resulting from higher
standards of living would require larger quantities of water, the impact
of climate change could adversely affect more than a billion people
in respect of water availability in Asia by the 2050s.
Climate change and its impacts
in the most vulnerable regions require a careful evaluation of humanitarian
assistance across the globe. Increased resources will be required for
adaptation to climate change.
This undoubtedly would be
a far better approach for the global community to pursue than to provide
emergency assistance in the event of catastrophes and extreme events.
There are equity dimensions
to climate change that also deserve attention. While adaptation is inevitable
and urgent, the increase in emissions of greenhouse gases, if not mitigated
by the developed nations, will lead to much higher temperatures and
much more serious impacts. It is, therefore, essential to ensure that
strategies involving both adaptation and mitigation are pursued.
The cost of mitigation, as
assessed by the climate change panel, is very modest in relation to
the cost of impacts across the world. If mitigation is not implemented,
then income and wealth disparities between nations will increase, and
the existence of poverty on a large scale, which should be ethically
unacceptable, could pose a threat to global security and stability.
The possibility of large
numbers of people becoming environmental refugees is not only a humanitarian
problem of serious proportions but also has the potential for social
disruption that needs to be avoided.
Stringent mitigation needs
to be undertaken immediately, and existing technologies and methods
are available for this. Adaptation to climate change, particularly involving
the poorest communities in the world, assumes urgency.
In view of the new knowledge
provided by the panel, the world needs to take climate change as a serious
problem that needs a humanitarian approach.
Dr Rajendra Pachauri
is the chairman of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, which was the joint winner of
the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize, and director-general of the Energy and Resources
Institute, New Delhi.
© 2007 The Sydney Morning
Herald
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