Who Will Succeed
Arafat?
By Roshan Muhammed
Salih
11 November, 2004
Aljazeera
Death
of Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat has thrown open the question who
will succeed him.Unlike last week's US presidential election, there
are no clearly defined candidates who will have their fates decided
at the ballot box.
Indeed, it is uncertain
if the Palestinians - confronted by the reality of Israeli occupation
- will get to choose a new leader, or have one foisted upon them through
a back-room deal.
Key outside power
negotiators, such as Israel and the US, will also try to influence Arafat's
succession.
According to London-based
Palestinian analyst and al-Quds al-Arabi editor, Abd al-Bari Atwan,
it is imperative that the Palestinians hold elections to choose a leader
and break the Arafat-led Fatah movement's stranglehold on power.
"Arafat is
by far the most popular figure in Palestine," he told Aljazeera.net.
"But no other figure in his Fatah movement commands much support
among Palestinians. So why should they be allowed to maintain power?"
But some analysts
say it is far from certain that credible elections can be held within
the West Bank and Gaza under a state of occupation.
Collective leadership?
Khalid Amayreh,
Aljazeera.net's correspondent in the West Bank, says the situation is
further complicated by Arafat's elimination of any potential rivals.
He said it would
also be impossible for one figure to unite the Palestinians in the same
way as Arafat had done.
"It is highly
possible that there will not be one leader," he told Aljazeera.net.
"The safest
option would be for some sort of collective leadership. But the problem
is that Fatah will not tolerate power sharing."
Amayreh added that
Arafat's death would be bad news for the Israelis as he was the only
man who could have made as many concessions as he did and still survive
politically.
Amayreh said: "The
Palestinian leadership will inevitably have to get more hardline to
enjoy a measure of popularity among the Palestinian people. They will
not accept someone who is in the pocket of the Americans and the Israelis.
"Popular resistance
movements like Hamas will not seek power themselves but without Arafat
they will inevitably gain more influence."
THE CONTENDERS
Mahmud Abbas
Also known as Abu
Mazen, Abbas, 69, is the most senior Palestinian leader after Arafat
and one of the few surviving founder members of Fatah - the main political
group in the PLO.
Abbas built his reputation as one of the architects of the peace process
with Israel during the 1990s.
In 2003 he was appointed Palestinian prime minister with the remit of
implementing a peace plan with the Israelis known as the road map.
However, Abbas
resigned four months later in the face of repeated Israeli invasions
of Palestinian territory and an internal struggle with Arafat.
Touted by politicians
in Washington and London as the Palestinian moderate who would deliver
peace, Abbas was branded at home as an Israeli appeaser.
Although his position
within Fatah makes him a strong contender to take over from Arafat,
he has little grassroots support among ordinary Palestinians.
Ahmad Quraya
Quraya, or Abu Ala,
is another of the chief architects of the peace process with Israel
during the 1990s.
After Abbas's departure as prime minister in 2003, he was charged with
reviving the American-backed road map to peace as PM. This he has so
far failed to do.
Nevertheless, as
one of the Palestinian Liberation Organisation's most senior leaders,
the 67-year-old's supporters say he has the trust and respect of all
sides in the conflict.
On the other hand, his detractors say he is too close to the Israelis
and, like Abbas, has little grassroots support.
Marwan al-Barghuthi
The highly popular
Marwan al-Barghuthi is currently languishing in an Israeli jail, accused
of being behind a spate of bomb attacks.
Born in Ram Allah
in 1958, al-Barghuthi was the liaison officer for the Palestinian Liberation
Organisation in Amman and Tunis.
Imprisoned for six
years for his role in the first intifada (1987-1992), al-Barghuthi was
deported to Jordan in 1987.
After the 1993 Oslo
accords, he returned to the West Bank in April 1994 and took over as
secretary-general of Fatah in the West Bank.
He considers any
Palestinian who bargains over the 1967 borders a traitor.
Aside from enjoying
good relations with Islamist groups, al-Barghuthi is also critical of
the centralisation of power under Arafat and accuses his officials of
financial corruption.
A pragmatist, he
believes that a permanent solution to the Middle East conflict can be
found only if the mediator is changed. According to him, the US is too
close to Israel to be an honest negotiator.
Muhammad Dahlan
Muhammad Dahlan,
43, is the man that many believe the Israelis and the Americans would
like to see as Palestinian leader.
After a bust-up with Arafat earlier this year, Gaza's former security
chief is now without an official post, but retains influence and a militia
in the area.
Dahlan, who was one of the youngest leaders of the first Palestinian
intifada in 1987, says he was jailed 10 times by the Israelis between
1981 and 1986
As part of the Palestinian
delegation at the Camp David peace talks in 2000, he says he is one
of those who fought the hardest to reach a settlement with the Israelis.
But with the outbreak of the second intifada in 2000 and his subsequent
crackdown on Islamist activists, Dahlan's credibility in the eyes of
the Palestinian street eroded.
And his good relations with Israel and the US have led to accusations
that he is colluding with the enemy.
Jibril al-Rajub
Jibril al-Rajub,
51, is the former security chief in the West Bank, where he still has
considerable influence and a militia.
A long-term member of Fatah, he was sentenced to life in prison by the
Israelis in 1970 for throwing a grenade at a convoy of Israeli soldiers.
Viewed as a pragmatist,
he has ordered his forces to clamp down on resistance groups Hamas and
Islamic Jihad to stop them from attacking Israel.
He argues for the
continuation of the Palestinian Authority as the best organisation to
represent Palestinian interests.
Al-Rajub is also
said to be regarded favourably by Israel and the US.