The Risk Of
A Third Intifada
By Marwan Bishara
18 August, 2005
The
Guardian
Once
the media circus is over, Israel's melodramatic withdrawal from the
Gaza Strip should be judged by how it improves Palestinian lives and
the chances of a just and peaceful resolution of the conflict.
On the face of it,
ending 38 years of Israel's military and civilian occupation is welcome
news. The evacuation of hundreds of illegally implanted Jewish families
from the midst of a million and a half Palestinians, 85% of them refugees,
will close the curtains on some of the occupation's most cynical scenes.
That's why Palestinians are celebrating the withdrawal as a defeat for
the occupation and victory for years of resistance. As a new Palestinian
slogan goes, they hope for "Gaza today, tomorrow Jerusalem and
the West Bank".
That is precisely
what Ariel Sharon's plan aims to prevent. As settlers grieve, most Israelis
approve of the withdrawal as a necessary demographic disengagement from
an area that encompasses 2% of historical Palestine and 20% of all Palestinians.
Israel's strategic redeployment around the hostile Strip and its total
control over Gaza's ports and crossings allows it, at will, to turn
the area into one big prison.
Once Palestinians
are preoccupied with rebuilding their shattered lives under international
scrutiny, Israel will accelerate the de facto annexation of the settlement
blocs in the West Bank and Jerusalem. In the first three months of 2005,
construction in the West Bank settlements increased by 83%, when in
Israel proper it decreased by a quarter. As a general, Sharon understands
that in war one must at times cede tactically in order to win strategically.
Accordingly and "in the absence of a Palestinian peace partner",
Israel will disengage from Gaza in order to impose its vision on the
10 times larger West Bank and Jerusalem: the crown jewels of the occupation.
This translates
into a de facto disengagement from the peace process. Instead of basing
Israel's steps on agreements with the Palestinians, Sharon is doing
the opposite - act first, talk later - in complicity with Washington,
which wants the Palestinians to accept the Sharon plan as the only game
in town, regardless of its motives, in order to reshape their destiny.
Their leadership should begin by "dismantling the infrastructure
of terrorism" and raise the banner of good governance in its stead.
Palestinians have
every interest in making Gaza work for its people and as a step towards
their goal of full statehood in all lands occupied in 1967. The Palestinian
Authority has made commendable efforts to organise the security forces,
improve transparency and end corruption. Mahmoud Abbas, the president,
has reached ceasefires with the armed Palestinian factions, and the
largest, Hamas, has joined the political process. After an impressive
showing in the municipal vote, the Islamist group will participate,
for the first time, in the legislative elections, now set for January.
The politicisation
of the Islamist groups will make them more accountable to their electorate
for their actions, including all attacks on Israeli civilians. They
will be forced to balance their relations of force with Israel against
their power relations with competing groups in the emerging Palestinian
entity.
The viability of
Gaza, according to the World Bank, will depend primarily on its open
crossings, especially to the West Bank. That will prove an uphill battle
with a Sharon government that demands, as a precondition to "concessions",
that the Palestinian Authority crack down on Hamas and other armed factions,
whose supporters constitute from a third to a half of the Gaza Strip
population. Any such attempt will escalate into civil war.
Squeezed between
Sharon's war and a war among brothers, the Palestinian leadership and
opposition will probably appeal for international intervention. My guess
is that Sharon will unilaterally impose the "state in Gaza first"
option and open the process for years of bargaining that one day could
lead to half a state on half of the West Bank and Gaza. If the Bush
administration goes along with Sharon, a third intifada will follow
the one that erupted five years ago when American and Israeli leaders
tried to corner another Palestinian president at Camp David.
All Palestinians
deserve an immediate end to an ordeal that includes freedom from occupation
that has lasted decades. Anything less would transform Israel's Gaza
nightmare into a daily West Bank reality.
· Marwan
Bishara is a lecturer at the American University of Paris and author
of Palestine/Israel: Peace or Apartheid [email protected]