Who
Will Save Abu-Mazen?
By
Uri Avnery
Gush
Shalom
12 August, 2003
Abu-Mazen
will fall before the end of October--this conviction is gaining ground
in leading Palestinian circles.
This forecast is
based on the belief that Abu-Mazen will not get anything, neither from
the Americans nor from Sharon. No release for most of the prisoners,
no complete removal of the checkpoints inside the Palestinian territories,
no stop to the building of the wall, no total withdrawal of the army
from Palestinian towns, no lifting of the blockade on President Arafat,
no freeze of the settlements, no dismantling of the settlement outposts
that were put up in the last two and a half years (as stipulated by
the Road Map).
If they had wanted
to "help Abu-Mazen", to quote the formula current in Washington,
they would have fulfilled at least some of these demands. But nothing
of the sort has happened. The well publicized release of a handful of
prisoners, most of whom where due to be released anyhow, only highlighted
the absence of goodwill and increased the anger.
Abu-Mazen became
Prime Minister because the Americans demanded it. The Palestinians hoped
that the Americans would give him things that they were unwilling to
grant Yasser Arafat. This would have meant the US exerting real pressure
on Sharon in order to compel him to deliver the goods. This has not
happened. The terrible conditions of life in the occupied territories
have not improved. In some places they have even deteriorated.
Abu-Mazen does not
enjoy wide public support. Formally, he represents the ruling party,
Fatah, but even there his standing is problematical. The party is devoted
to Yasser Arafat , and Abu-Mazen's political existence depends on support
from Arafat.
In a recent Palestinian
popularity poll, Abu-Mazen received 2% of the votes. Arafat tops the
list, of course. After him comes Mustafa Barghouti, who has set up a
large-scale aid network for the suffering population. The third place
was taken by Marwan Barghouti, the leader of the Fatah cadres, who is
standing trial in Israel. Abu-Mazen was near the bottom.
Sharon could have
saved Abu-Mazen if he had wanted to. But here, too, it is advisable
to ignore what Sharon says and to pay attention to what he does: undermining
Abu Mazen. He is worried by the respect paid to Abu-Mazen by the White
House and Congress, fearing that American support of Israel might shrink
from 100% to a mere 95%.
The fall of Abu-Mazen
in a vote of the Palestinian Legislative Council will be very convenient
for Sharon. He believes that it will kill the Road Map, and with it
the demands to stop the building of the wall, dismantle the outposts
and freeze the settlements.
In this matter,
too, Sharon enjoys the support of the army command, which opposes the
Hudna (truce) and is longing for the renewal of the violence. As always,
the army commanders believe that victory is just around the corner and
that Palestinian resistance is on the verge of collapse. All that is
needed is one last decisive blow.
Will the hopes of
Sharon and Co. regarding America come true? That depends on who succeeds
Abu-Mazen.
Arafat's candidate
is the Palestinian millionaire from Nablus, Munib al-Masri, the scion
of a well established family, a man with widespread business interests
throughout the Arab countries and the rest of the world. He is a man
of proven ability, popular among the Palestinians.
Another likely candidate
is the new Minister of Finance, Salaam Fayad. He, too, has established
his competence. In a short time he has put the Palestinian Authority's
finances in order, eliminated much of the corruption, organized the
regular payment of salaries (replacing a man carrying a suitcase full
of money with direct transfer to the bank accounts of the employees.)
He is well respected by the Palestinian public.
Both these candidates
are acceptable to the Americans. The election of one of them as the
next Prime Minister would ensure that the relations between Washington
and Ramallah continue to improve.
If Abu-Mazen falls,
his security chief, Muhammad Dahlan, may fall with him. He got his job
because the Americans (and Sharon's people, of course) demanded it.
That has hurt his standing right from the beginning. He is a Fatah man,
but not a member of the "Revolutionary Council", the highest
Fatah leadership body. The suspicion that he sees himself as Arafat's
successor does not make him more popular, either.
The long-term rival
of Dahlan, Jibril Rajoub, formerly the powerful chief of security on
the West Bank, has recently been reconciled with Arafat, after the famous
incident in which the leader boxed his ears. His standing was hurt during
the reoccupation of Ramallah by the Israeli army ("Operation Defensive
Shield"), when Rajoub's headquarters was occupied and several Hamas
prisoners taken, in spite of an explicit American promise that the compound
would be immune from attack. Lately he has recovered from a dangerous
operation and assured Arafat of his full support, but declined to accept
an official position.
Like Abu-Mazen and
many others, Rajoub opposes the armed intifada and advocates the idea
of non-violent popular resistance. He pins his hopes on the Israeli
Left and believes that the cessation of violence, and cooperation with
the Israeli peace camp, will bring about a major change. The adherents
of armed resistance argue, in return, that force is the only language
Israel understands, and that without violence nothing at all can be
achieved. The general Palestinian public wavers between these two strategic
views.
At this moment,
only the Americans can save Abu-Mazen. In the blockbuster film, "Saving
Private Ryan", an army unit was sent to rescue a soldier missing
behind enemy lines. Now the Americans' mission is to save Abu-Mazen
from the jaws of Sharon.
Uri Avnery is an
Israeli writer and peace activist with Gush Shalom.