Will
the Hudna last?
By Uri Avnery
5 July, 2003
After "Intifada"
(shaking off) and "Shahid" (martyr), another Arabic term has
entered the world's vocabulary: "Hudna" (truce).
In Islamic tradition, the
word evokes an historical event. The first Islamic truce was declared
in the year 628 AD at Hodaibiya, in the course of Muhammad's war against
the pagan chiefs of Mecca. According to the version now doing the rounds
in Israel, Muhammad broke the truce and conquered Mecca. Ergo: Don't
believe the Arabs, don't believe in the Hudna.
In Arab history books, the
same event is presented quite differently. The Hudna allowed the adherents
of the new faith to enter Mecca on a pilgrimage to the holy rock. The
pilgrims used the opportunity to make converts. When most citizens had
accepted Islam, Muhammad entered the city almost without bloodshed and
was received with open arms. Ergo: already in their earliest history,
Muslims realized that persuasion is better than force.
Therein lies the answer to
the questions that are being asked now: Will the Hudna last? Will it
continue after the initial three-month period? Will Arafat and Abu-Mazen
succeed in bringing Hamas along with them?
The answers depend completely
on the mood of the Palestinian population. If it wants the Hudna, the
Hudna will last. If it detests the Hudna, it will collapse. Hamas does
not want to lose public sympathy by breaking a popular Hudna. On the
contrary, it wants to play a major role in the future Palestinian state.
But if the population comes to the conclusion that the Hudna has borne
no fruit, Hamas will be the first to break it.
On what will this depend?
If the Hudna delivers a major political achievement to the nation and
a marked improvement in the quality of life to individuals, it will
be popular and take root.
That is logical, and that
corresponds with my own personal experience. I have already mentioned
in these columns that in my early youth I was a member of a liberation
and/or terrorist organization (the definition depends on your point
of view). At that time, I learned that such an organization needs public
support and cannot operate without it. It needs money, means of propaganda,
hiding places, new members. For an organization like Hamas, that has
also political and social ambitions, popularity is doubly important.
As long as the Hudna is popular, Hamas will abide by it.
This is primarily a test
for Abu-Mazen. What can he do to make the Hudna popular? He must secure
the wide-scale release of Palestinian prisoners; the amelioration of
the horrible living conditions; the withdrawal of the Israeli army from
the towns and villages; the removal of the checkpoints that make Palestinian
life miserable; the restoration of freedom of access to the urban centers,
the work places, hospitals and universities; an ending of targeted assassinations,
deportations, demolition of homes and uprooting of groves; the freeze
on building activities in the settlements and an end to the construction
of the "fence" that is biting off large chunks of land from
the West Bank.
If there is no progress in
all these matters, the Hudna will collapse. Should this happen, the
Israeli military and political establishment will shed no tears. There
the Hudna was received with much gnashing of teeth, as if it were imposed
by some hostile force. As a matter of fact, it came about by sheer American
pressure. The Israeli media, all of whom have long ago become propaganda
instruments of the "security establishment", received the
Hudna in unison, as if by order, with comments like "It has no
chance. It will not last" - a prophecy that may well prove to be
self-realizing.
The army command opposed
the cease-fire. As always, the officers explained that victory was just
around the corner, that all it needed was one last decisive blow. Exactly
this, in the very same words, was said by the French generals who opposed
ending the war in Algeria, and by the American generals when Nixon finally
gave up in Vietnam. This was said by the Russian generals in Afghanistan,
and now they are saying it again in Chechnya. They are always just about
to win. They always need to deliver just one more blow. And it's always
the corrupt politicians who stick a knife in their backs and bring about
defeat.
The truth is that the army
commanders have failed dismally. They have had many small successes,
but they have failed to achieve their main aim: to break the will of
the Palestinian people. For every "local leader" who was "targeted"
and "liquidated", two new ones arose. The "terrorist
infrastructure" was not destroyed, because there is no way to destroy
it. It is not composed of arms workshops and leaders, but of popular
support and the number of youngsters ready to risk and abandon their
lives.
After 1000 days, in spite
of the killing and the destruction, the Palestinian spirit of resistance
and their fighting capacity were not broken. The Palestinian people
has not given up the demands expressed at Camp David and Taba. At the
beginning of this Intifada, some individuals volunteered for suicide
missions; at its end, hundreds stood in line.
The Palestinians did not
win, either. They have proved that they can not be brought to their
knees. They have prevented the Palestinian cause from being struck from
the world agenda. The Israeli economy has been hit hard. The Intifada
has cast its shadow over daily life in Israel. Many of the acts that
are considered criminal by Israelis look to the Palestinians like glorious
acts of heroism. The destruction of Israeli tanks, the elimination of
a major checkpoint by one solitary sniper, the attack by Palestinian
commandos who crawled under the "separation wall" - acts like
these have filled the Palestinians with pride. And the very fact that
after 1000 days the Palestinian David remains standing and facing the
mighty Israeli Goliath is by itself an achievement that will be proudly
passed down to the coming generations of Palestinians.
But the Palestinians have
not succeeded in imposing their will on Israel, just as Israel has not
succeeded in imposing its will on the Palestinians. Both the Israelis
and the Palestinians are exhausted. This Intifada has ended, for the
time being, in a draw.
Mosh Ya'alon, a chief-of-staff
with an unquenchable thirst for talking, has proclaimed victory. But
on the same day, in a respected Israeli public opinion poll, 73% of
those polled expressed the opinion that Israel has not won, and 33%
even saw the Palestinians as the victors. The largest circulation newspaper
in the country headlined a story about the chief-of-staff with the ironic
words: "For your information, We Have Won!" The majority does
not believe that the Hudna will hold. But in the meantime, every day
that passes without human sacrifice on either side is a pure gain for
all of us.
What now? Real negotiations?
Negotiations that are nothing other than make-believe? Efforts by both
sides to court the Americans? American pressure on both parties to come
up with some real actions? Ask Condoleezza.