Pakistan Political Drama:
So Far So Good - For USBy M B Naqvi
09 October, 2007
Deccan HeraldAmericans have always had success in whatever they wanted in and over Pakistan. Despite much ruckus created by lawyers and the civil society over the election of General Pervez Musharraf for another term of Pakistan Presidency, it has gone through. It was a cliffhanger even till the noon of Oct 5 on whether the elections will be held or the Supreme Court will give a stay order.
In the event, just as the apex court had tentatively permitted General Pervez Musharraf's candidature against serious objections by lawyers, it allowed the holding of the polling on Oct 6, though it put a limitation on this election: Election Commission should not formally notify the results until it has finally decided the case which it will start hearing from Oct 17.
It refused to stop the holding of the election until the substantive issue had been resolved, of whether General Musharraf in uniform could participate in a presidential election. The victory in the polls on Saturday has been celebrated by Islamabad as if it was total. Even so, this is pretty good going, especially when the Americans see that Musharraf did finally bite the bullet and has done a deal with Benazir Bhutto they had recommended.
Notwithstanding the intellectual ferment in Pakistan against the Chief of Army Staff interminably occupying the President's office it can only be an initial success for Washington. The top judges' remarks show that they appreciate the sentiments of the civil society and people in general on the subject. But their September 28 decision in which they permitted Gen Musharraf to contest the Presidential election in uniform showed that what they do is not what they say.
True, the judges have said that they have rejected lawyers petitions only on the maintainability of the petitions; they have not foreclosed the subject, they will discuss it later. But later means Musharraf will have donned the Presidential crown and will sit on the top throne in the interval. He has the support of the Army, civil bureaucracy, America and presumably also Allah. Would not the Supreme Court, some weeks later, simply acquiesce in the reality and not derail the whole system?
From day one, Musharraf has got what he wanted. In this case he wanted to contest the election as Chief of Army Staff for presidency: he has been granted his wish. The challenges to the election have been rejected at the right time. He had at great length and after much persuasion by the highest level US officials promised to hang up his military fatigues after finally getting elected. It will remain only a promise so long as the top court does not finally decide. When will it finally decide who knows?
It is to be seen how Musharraf manages his second wish that was never articulated clearly: holding the general election at the end of the year while he is still the Army commander. That meant he could "manage" the election results as he had done in 2002. This was all the rationale for his wanting to remain in uniform; he would then be able to command the secret agencies of the Army and get the results of the elections as he desired. This is a wide open question as to whether the US and Pakistan's top court can actually oppose the idea.
Where do the Americans come in and what moves them? The fact of the matter is that the Americans are scared stiff about what is likely to happen in Pakistan if their Musharraf project fails. They see the dark hordes of Islamic extremists in the NWFP and Afghanistan joining together and converting Pakistan's north west into a new Islamic state. The Americans clearly suspect that there are political forces in the field that want to establish a Khilafat in the area and which would later spread the sway of resurgent Islam over many Muslim lands. Some of the elements in the Pakistan Army, the Americans fear, are part of this threat. These elements are suspected of thinking that Pakistan's leadership of a new Muslim Empire, with its relative development and nuclear weapons would be a fitting complement of this dream. However fanciful it may seem to people elsewhere, the American experts appear to believe it to be a credible threat.
Factually the Americans made efforts to bring about what has happened: a political deal with Benazir Bhutto the Chairperson of Pakistan Peoples Party and Musharraf. The Americans believe that this new expansion of the support base of Musharraf will give them, Musharraf and the world a chance of preventing Pakistan going the way of Afghanistan and worse. Some may wonder how have the Americans acquired such proprietarial interests in Pakistan. It must be remembered that ever since 1953, the Americans have been giving the Pakistan Army military aid that has largely helped equip it.
They pretty much behave as if they own the place. Whether the Americans will finally succeed in rescuing Pakistan from the threat of Islamic extremism is a question for which there is no clear answer.
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