Netanyahu Victory, Saudi Arabia And Iran
By G. Asgar Mitha
22 March, 2015
Countercurrents.org
Out of the four aces in the deck of cards Iran possibly holds two, US one and Israel also one in the poker game which is supposedly about nuclear issues.
The poker game between the three players is not about nuclear issues but Iran is pretending that it is about it. Iran never ever had any intentions to develop nuclear weapons to defend itself or to attack Israel for to do so it'd tantamount to suicide. It cannot and will not develop destructive weapons along humanitarian and religious grounds. The US CIA has informed the past and current US administrations that Iran does not have that capability. Knowing well, why are the US and EU3 among the P5+1 group (China and Russia are fully convinced that Iran is only interested in pursuing nuclear enrichment for power generation and scientific research) and Israel, whose spy agency Mossad considers Iran's nuclear ambitions as remote, relentlessly pursuing the game with Iran? And why is Saudi Arabia which does not even know the rules of the poker game so adamant that Iran will develop a N-bomb? Unless, of course, it fears the rise of Iran along sectarian lines and as a regional power. Saudi Arabia and the Arab monarchies are more interested in developing a power base by exporting religious fundamentalism in the Muslim countries using their oil wealth.
Netanyahu won a fourth term as Israel's Prime Minister, emerging as a hero that humiliated a mighty empire and won the support of the US Republicans - as their President of the United States - with a standing ovation on 3 March 2015 and that not in Israel but in the US itself. It snubbed the American democracy and treated the US as a colony. What a victory! He did not have to plead with some of the most powerful Republicans but rather told them that they should reject any deal the Obama administration makes with Iran. That clearly has weakened Ernest Moniz (US Secretary of Energy) with his one ace in hand and strengthened Iran's Ali Akber Salehi (Head of Atomic Energy Organization of Iran -AEOI). Both Moniz and Salehi are very seasoned diplomats and nuclear physicists. To make it worse, Netanyahu may have egged many of the Senators to write a letter to Iran to further weaken the talks but which came as a gift to hardliners in Tehran. Israel's main concern is not Iran getting nuclear weapons but that a deal with Iran would shift the Middle East balance of power in Israel's disfavor and strengthen Iran as a regional power.
Saudi Arabia's fear matches that of Israel. It too sees Iran emerging as the balancing power in the Middle East with nuclear weapons. Iran's strategic alliance with Russia and China and its indigenous development of military hardware, its proven military strategies in Lebanon against Israel in 2006, in Syria supporting Assad regime for 4 years and in Iraq against ISIS (Islamic States) have strengthened it while Saudi Arabia and the monarchies of Qatar, Kuwait, UAE and Kuwait have weakened and squandered their wealth, relying upon the US and Europeans to prop up their security and exporting religious fundamentalism. Most recently, King Salman summoned Pakistan's Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif with request for providing military assistance to Saudi Arabia against the Yemeni Houthis on its southern-western borders. Pakistan diplomatically declined the support stating that it cannot spare the resources as it is engaged in fighting the (Saudi supported) Taliban extremism and terrorism.
The US decided to engage Iran in direct N-talks knowing very well that Iran has no ambitions of developing nuclear weapons. Three important reasons could be offered. The first that the US has accepted Iran as the balancing regional power and wishes to swing it from the Chinese and Russia political sphere into the western influence by offering it economic incentives and removing the UN sanctions. Secondly, the US is concerned that an Iran within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) could play an even more strategic geopolitical role in Central, Southwest Asia along with China and Russia because of its enviable energy resources. Thirdly, the US petrodollar is being challenged by the Chinese yuan as an alternate petrocurrency. Iran has been operating the Kish Island oil bourse since 2008 and has been accepting payments in all major currencies except the US dollar. I've written in another article that the petrodollar is US Achilles Heel. Both Iraq under Saddam and Libya under Gaddafi - weak as they were - challenged the petrodollar and suffered the consequences. However Iran is another matter. It is strong and diplomatically and politically astute.
What is it that Iran wants as a concession to giving up its pursuit of nuclear weapons? At this point the talks are in a rather critical stage and Salehi and Moniz have held their cards close to their chest but what we only know is that the deal is about removal of UN sanctions and economic concessions. Iranian hardliner leadership is not likely to bite into the carrot that the US is dangling and would require concessions that would give them political upper hand. Iran has survived the western isolation for 35 years and as a result emerged stronger in every respect so why would it succumb and accept what they don't already need, that being economic incentives? Both Saudi Arabia and Israel would welcome the Iranian rejection. It might seem in that case that Iran would reluctantly go full speed to develop a nuclear bomb as a deterrent as it does have that capability having enriched uranium to 20% at Natanz and Fardow (Qom) in January 2014. By this action Iran clearly demonstrated to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), US and EU3 that it does have the capability to go beyond this threshold with relative ease and rather quickly. It was at this point that EU recognized the need to offer Iran concessions, ease sanctions and bring the US into the N-talks rather than it becomes a member of the exclusive nuclear club.
The failure of the N-talks and Iran not getting the concessions - economic, easing sanctions and political - it is seeking on its terms is that the US, Israel and EU3 may well start a catastrophic war in the Middle East, likely between Iran and ISIS. If it wins, then certainly Iran will be recognized as the balancing force in the Middle East - a defeat for both Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Author Bio: I was born in pre-partition Mumbai and with my grandparents and parents migrated to Karachi shortly thereafter. My basic schooling was in Karachi after which I proceeded to the US in 1968 for further studies. I obtained my Bachelor degree in Chemical Engineering and Masters in Economics in 1977. I returned to Pakistan where I worked 2 years in an oil refinery and then immigrated to Canada in 1980. I've worked in the oil & gas engineering sector in Canada, USA, Qatar, UAE, Libya, France and Kuwait besides Pakistan as Process, Project and Technical Safety Engineer. I retired from a major oil company in Calgary in July 2015 after a career in Technical Safety Engineering. Now I live in Calgary with my family enjoying reading political/ current affairs/ economic books as well as writing.
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