The
Long, Hot Summer
Has Already Begun
By Robert Rosenberg
21 July 2006
Electronic
Lebanon
The patterns and routines of
the war have become evident in the last eight days. The day usually
begins with huge headlines about overnight Israeli operations meant
to buck up morale with reports about tons of explosives dropped into
Hizbollah hiding places or ground operations by elite special operations
forces hunting Katyusha launchers or Hizbollah squads trying to infiltrate
Israel across the northern border. By mid morning it becomes evident
that the tons of explosives did not manage to kill the Hizbollah leadership,
and the guerrilla group's rockets begin flying into Israel, hitting
towns and villages throughout the Galilee. But by noon, a relative,
tense calm descends over the hills of northern Israel. IDF cannon fire
continues into south Lebanon, the air sorties continue over Tyre, Beirut,
eastern Lebanon and everywhere else the IAF spots suspicious trucks.
And then, in the late afternoon, as dusk begins to settle over Galilee,
just as it seems that perhaps the day will have passed without significant
casualties on the Israeli side, a barrage of rockets flies into Israel's
northern cities and the cycle resumes.
There is talk -- but only
talk -- of Israel launching a massive ground operation into Lebanon,
to once and for all, as the proponents say, to clear south Lebanon of
Hizbollah militiamen and their rockets. Those in favor of such an operation
tend to be rightist politicians like Likud MK Yisrael Katz, whose rise
in Likud politics began when he served as an aide to then-defense minister
Ariel Sharon. On Army Radio today, Katz eerily echoed Menachem Begin,
and apparently unwittingly so, when he said that Israel has to get over
the 'Lebanon trauma and go into Lebanon in full force to get the job
done.' Begin, in his day, proudly explained that Operation Peace for
Galilee, more popularly known as the Lebanon War, would 'once and for
all erase the trauma of the Yom Kippur war.' Katz, now in the opposition
and far from the reigns of power, tried to sweeten his vision of a corps
of Israeli soldiers riding tanks and APCs into the quagmire of Lebanon,
by saying, 'they won't be going into to stay there, just to do the job
and get out' - shades of Begin and Sharon's promise of an incursion
that would only go as far as 40 kilometers, the range of the Katyushas
that were in the hands of the PLO at the time.
Cabinet Secretary Yisrael
Maimon, pressed by Israel Radio's Ayala Hason did admit today that there
are plans for a massive incursion into Lebanon, but those plans are
'not on the agenda.' Instead, the current ground operations, he said,
would suffice. Those operations are by elite commando units, target
spotting for the aircraft overhead or ambushing Hizbollah cells still
operating in south Lebanon - or much further north. Surprisingly, one
of Israel's biggest hawks, MK Effie Eitam, a reserve brigadier general
who often proposes using massive force to solve problems, spoke frankly
this morning in Israel Radio, admitting that a massive ground incursion
would splinter the 'national consensus' that backs the military operations
against Hizbollah. Interestingly, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is said
to have held a meeting with Eitam, who in the 1990s was a general in
the north, spending most of his time in the so-called security zone
that Israel eventually quit in May 2000.
The consensus is holding
largely because the media is still behind the operation, and focused
on the empty streets of the northern communities and the individual
suffering of various families who have lost relatives to the rockets
or seen their life possessions demolished in a moment. Of the many,
many hours of television time devoted daily to the violence, only a
few minutes are given to the scenes from Lebanon. Regular programming
has disappeared from the three main channels. Eitam is probably right.
A ground invasion would indeed raise the specter of a lengthy stay in
hostile territory and casualties among Israeli soldiers and that would
certainly lead to protests.
So, the Israeli air war over
Lebanon continues and the Hizbollah's missile war against Israel continues.
The outlines of a solution are becoming clear -- a ceasefire, a prisoner
exchange, a Lebanese Army or multinational force led by Americans or
British deployment in south Lebanon and some form of disarmament of
Hizbollah - but how the sides will get there remains a mystery. The
Americans are now indicating that Condoleezza Rice will make two trips
to the region - one next week, to test the waters, and another a week
later, to package the deal. Until then, Israel can continue pounding
Hizbollah, but has been told by Washington to stop hitting Lebanese
infrastructure. According to Channel 10 last night, Olmert has received
messages from Arab leaders, including some who have no diplomatic ties
with Israel, 'strengthening his hand' in the Israeli battle against
the Iranian-backed Hizbollah. One concern raised in the media is whether
the Americans are trying to push Israel into attacking Syria, especially
since it seems that at every opportunity, President Bush points his
finger at Damascus as a culprit in the affair.
Meanwhile, the Hamas government
and Gaza are still under siege in the south, the West Bank is under
'closure,' meaning no workers are allowed into Israel, and whatever
solution is found for the north and Lebanon will be kept separate, by
Israel, from whatever solution is found for the south and the Palestinians.
The long, hot summer has only begun.