Lebanon
Faces New Crisis
After Walkout By Hizbollah
By Robert Fisk
15 November 2006
The
Independent
The Shia, the largest community
in Lebanon, are no longer represented in the Lebanese government. It
could be just part of Lebanon's bloody-minded politics - or it could
be a most dangerous moment in the history of this tragic country.
At the weekend, the Hizbollah
and the Amal movement walked out of the Lebanese body politic, splitting
apart the gentle, utterly false, brilliantly conceived (by the French,
of course) confessional system that binds this tortured nation together.
There will be demonstrations by Hizbollah to demand a government of
"national unity", which means that Sayed Hassan Nasrallah,
winner of the so-called "divine victory" against Israel this
summer, insists on another pro-Syrian administration in Lebanon.
For a world which has decided
to support Lebanon's "democracy", this is grave news. The
resignation of five cabinet ministers, two from Hizbollah and three
from Amal, cannot bring down the government (which needs eight ministers
to resign in order to destroy it), but it means that the largest religious
community is no longer officially represented in government decision-making.
The Hizbollah are warning of demonstrations which could tear the country
apart.
The stakes? The international
tribunal which is supposed to try those responsible for the murder of
the former prime minister Rafik Hariri last year, and the possibility
that the national "unity" which Hizbollah demands would create
a cabinet which could become, once more, Syria's creature in Lebanon.
It's not that simple, of
course - nothing in Lebanon is - but it's enough to frighten the democratically
elected cabinet of Fouad Siniora, Hariri's friend and confidant, and
- even more - the Americans who supported "democracy" in Lebanon
and then cared nothing for it during this summer's Israeli bombardment
of the country.
What prompted this extraordinary
crisis at a time when thousands of foreign troops are still pouring
into Lebanon to secure a peace which looks ever more self-destructive
by the day? Clearly, the tribunal is one element. On Friday, the UN
presented Mr Siniora with the terms of the court which would try suspects
in the Hariri murder, men who will probably turn out to be intelligence
agents of President Bashar Assad's regime in Damascus. The Lebanese
President, Emile Lahoud, the most faithful friend of Mr Assad, has already
said he needs further time to study the UN recommendations - ho hum,
his Lebanese opponents say - before he will sanction a cabinet meeting
tomorrow to allow parliament to vote on the UN proposals.
Mr Siniora - an economist
friend of Hariri and no warlord - has now said that he will not accept
the resignations. He is waiting for Nasrallah's lads to return to the
cabinet, well aware that their continued absence - however legal the
cabinet remains - will tear the country apart.
The Christians probably account
for fewer than 30 per cent of the Lebanese population, and the Sunnis
- who largely support them through the leadership of Hariri's son, Saad
- create a majority which the Shia cannot outnumber. But Syria and Iran
- the armourers of the Hizbollah - are waiting to see what the United
States will offer them before cooling the Lebanese oven.
Marwan Hamadi, the minister
of communications, said yesterday that talks could be held to bring
the Shia back into the government. The Beirut conference between Saad
Hariri's 14 March movement - the date marks the huge pro-democracy rally
last year that followed his father's murder - broke down on Saturday.
Mr Hariri's bloc holds a
majority in parliament, but the formal Christian rebel-general Michel
Aoun - whose supporters are already wearying of his electoral alliance
with the Hizbollah - says that the cabinet is not representative. He
wants three of his loyalists in the government.
Either way, the Christians
and the Sunni Muslims of Lebanon are now being torn from their Shia
co- religionists. Rival street protests between Christians and Sunnis
on the one hand, and Shia on the other, can scarcely be pursued when
most of the Lebanese army - a re-formed force of some integrity - are
mostly Shia. Bad news indeed.
© 2006 Independent News
and Media Limited
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