Change, National Security
Dr. John James
Calculations show that dangerous levels of global warming cannot now
be avoided. The life-style changes needed internationally are so wide-reaching
that effective and immediate action is unlikely. As Australia is one
of the few countries that can survive, we should prepare now for the
inevitable. Ethical issues will distort our responses for years to come
if we fail to address them now.
the evidence, neither we nor the world will stop the full-on use of
fossil-fuels before the growing use of these fuels have set off serious
consequences from climate change. The possible consequences are so dire
the survival of civilisation is at stake.
needs to prepare public opinion for the inevitable. We need to plan
for changes to infrastructure, society and life styles, and defence
so that we are ready in time. We need the support of our citizens in
making the changes that will be necessary. In the process we will need
to start a dialogue on a new ethical paradigm.
I have recommended
to ministers at both Federal and State governments the immediate establishment
of a National Risk Assessment Council that would assess various scenarios
in conjunction with the local people, and collectively to evolve solutions.
should be public so that Australians become educated in the risks of
climate change. They may then prepare in their private and commercial
lives, and do so with the confidence that government is facing the issue
and is determined to deal with it for the common good. This must lead
to a better outcome than not being prepared, especially through developing
a national resilience to a total shift in our lifestyle expectations.
climate that has allowed the human race to multiply, develop and prosper
has remained more or less unchanged for 10,000 years. Its stability
accounts for the entire span of civilised human history. Fig. 1 of temperatures
from ice cores showing the relatively even temperature of the past 10,000
1780s the average global temperature has risen 0.78oC from a one-third
increase in atmospheric CO2.1 To this should be added methane and other
gasses, and the concomitant impact of water vapour.
Were we to
stop all emissions immediately, temperature would continue to rise without
any more input from us from thermal inertia and aerosol dimming.
comes principally from cooler ocean water keeping air temperatures down.
As the oceans take up more heat from the air its temperature will rise
to match. This is projected to raise average global temperature by about
is the industrial pollution that masks the full impact of solar heating.
If pollution suddenly stopped the haze would fall out of the atmosphere
in a very short time,3 and the temperature would increase about 20%.4
Climate Change and National Security 26 April 2007, page 1
these are holding back the full impact of the CO2-e already in the atmosphere
by twenty or thirty years. The increase so far reflects only what has
been emitted up to the later 1970s.
is simple: Were we to instantly stop all emissions, stop everything
today, average global temperature would continue to rise as follows:
Current temp + thermal inertia + dimming = 0.78 + 0.45 + 20% = 1.5oC.
This is double the increase of the past two centuries.
It is therefore inevitable, from what we have already emitted, that
food production will decline, droughts will spread and species will
become extinct. There will be more hunger, less available fresh water,
the seas will rise and vast numbers of refugees will be on the move.5
These consequences cannot now be avoided.
We are now
left with a margin of only 0.5oC before we reach the critical threshold
that has been recognised as the uppermost safe limit to warming by the
EU6 and the UN.7 This analysis is illustrated in Fig. 2 showing increasing
emissions and the delayed impact of thermal inertia and global dimming.
If we continue
on our present emission trajectory we will, within eight years, have
emitted enough greenhouse gasses to ensure a rise of 2oC, and with it
catastrophic climate change over the following decades.8
of this threshold will be of the most enormous significance. We will
have entered the era of unpredictable climate change where neither we
nor our children can count on a safe future.
At 2oC it
is believed that global heat would start to trigger the release vast
quantities of the greenhouse gases now stored in the oceans, in trees
and in the soil.9
estimates for the quantity of organic carbon stored on this planet are:10
atmosphere 730 Bts, ocean (including clathrates) 10,000 Bts,11 soil
1,400 Bts, vegetation 830 Bts (of which 430 Bts is in rain forests)12
and permafrost 950 (of which 450 Bts is in Siberian yedoma).13 Compare
this with the 305 Bts humans have emitted into the atmosphere in 200
years – a difference of 150:1.
We do not
want to start releasing any of these carbon/methane sinks. If we do
a tipping point would be reached at which a positive feedback loop would
begin. This inexorable process would be unstoppable and could increase
average global temperature by up to 11oC or more.14
The mass-extinction at the end of the Permian 251 million years ago
occurred from a sudden concentration of carbon in the atmosphere.15
The consequent release of methane made it worse, and temperature quickly
rose by 6oC.16 The only land survivors were those that could adapt to
the near-absence of oxygen, and plant life was almost eliminated.
consequence will be sea-level rise. Previous periods of high temperature
have shown that the seas will rise at least 4 meters for every 1oC,
perhaps as much as four times that, Fig. 3 of sea level against temperature
over 30 million years showing this relationship between the two.17
James Hansen said “during the warmest interglacial periods - probably
less than 1oC warmer than today - it was still basically the same planet.
Sea level was perhaps a few metres higher. But if we go back to the
time when the Earth was two or three degrees warmer, that's about three
million years ago, sea level was about 25 metres higher.”18 Climate
Change and National Security Dr John James October 2007, page 2
and National Security Dr John James October 2007, page 3
We are now guaranteed a sea-level rise of at least 6 meters and the
loss of all our beaches, though the timescale is completely unknown
and depends on how fast the great glaciers disintegrate.
2oC is closer
than most are prepared to admit.
that “further global warming of 1oC (above the 2000 temperature)
defines a critical threshold. Beyond that we will likely see changes
that make Earth a different planet to the one we know.”19 Considering
that no one knows for sure what temperature would trigger the tipping
points, we are already in a zone of absolute risk.
The Arctic Zeppelin station has monitored over the past three years
that the average annual increase in the rate of CO2 emission is about
twice what it was twenty years ago, and this rate is accelerating.20
race is on a Gadarene rush headlong into the abyss by accumulating ever
more coal-fired plants, more vehicles and logging, and relentless population
increase. There are projections for a 23% power increase in the next
decade, and China (building more than one plant a week) has recently
overtaken the US as the largest emitter in the world.21 There is no
pause in our rush to extinction.
report due out November will state that around mid-2005 we crossed a
vital and dangerous threshold.22 After reading the draft of this report
Tim Flannery warned that it “establishes that the amount of greenhouse
gas in the atmosphere is already above the threshold that could cause
dangerous climate change.”23 In March last year the UK government
reported that 450 ppm is the upper limit if global temperatures were
to be stabilised at 2°C.24
We reached the figure of 455 ppm CO2-e in 2005, two years ago.25
For two decades
the world has had a window of opportunity. That window has now closed.
There is no time left. We have to prepare ourselves to deal with the
The 13 tipping
points that threaten civilisation:
years there has been a surge in CO2 levels that is greater than would
have come from human emissions alone. Nearly all earth's systems known
to effect climate change have begun positive feedback. Forests and oceans
are no longer sinks, but are becoming sources of CO2. We are now in
the most dangerous zone when one or more tipping points will be triggered,
and once triggered cannot be stopped.26
may be catastrophic: around 8,200 years ago it took less than a decade
to reduce temperature in Greenland by 5oC. We have no way of knowing
if this will happen again.
I will deal with each tipping point as shortly as I can.
The melting of the Greenland and Western Antarctic is happening faster
than shown in computer models,27 partly from surface melting that floods
through fissures to form subglacial lakes that are lifting the ice off
the bedrock.28 The gigantic masses of the Greenland glacier are picking
up speed as they head towards the sea, as if running for home. 29 Complete
disintegration is highly likely at 3oC, a temperature that is well within
the range of climate change projections for this century.30
glaciers have been thinning by about 600mm/a and this rate is also accelerating.31
Glaciers of the Tibetan plateau are losing half their mass every decade.32
In the past ten years the movement of most glaciers has increased by
12%, as the meltwater lubricates the underside of the ice so.33 The
IPCC report suggests they will disappear entirely before 2035.
Many of Asia's greatest rivers - including the Yangtze, the Indus, the
Ganges, the Brahmaputra, the Mekong and the Yellow River – are
fed by these glaciers. 34 Their flows are expected to become seasonal,
with enormous consequences on food production in the most populous countries
in the world.
If the whole
of the Greenland ice shield melted the sea rise would be 6.55 meters,
and 8.52 meters for the West Antarctic. Were all the mountain glaciers
to melt this would add less than half a meter. If all the ice on the
planet melted, potential sea rise would be more than 80 meters.35 The
final level would be higher from the expansion of water with heat and
the upward movement of the land that once supported these glaciers.
Fig. 4 shows the coastline of Australia were the sea-rise to be 100
meters. This is a very different place.
As this happens
there would be a gradual inundation of the world’s ports and docking
facilities, along with frequent storm surges. Exports and imports will
be severely affected. How will we get oil and food into the country?
How high will prices go? Will there be rationing? Will road transport
still be viable?
pollution of drinking water from a moderate 40 cm. rise would compel
some coastal cities36 to be abandoned.37 Even a one-meter rise would
make some airports inoperable, such as Sydney and Hong Kong. A 3 meter
rise would directly flood 670 million people and 2 million square miles
of mainly agricultural land would be lost.38
Methane is 21 times more powerful a greenhouse gas than CO2. Most of
it is held in Alaskan and Siberian peat bogs that cover an area of a
million square miles to a depth of 25± meters. Local temperatures
in southern Siberia have been 3-7oC, higher than anywhere else.39 Over
the past 5 years the permafrost has been melting, turning a barren expanse
of frozen peat into a broken landscape of mud and lakes, some more than
a kilometre across. This is releasing five times more methane than estimated.40
950 Bts of methane buried under the permafrost. It is three times all
industrial emissions, and the release of only part of this would have
a terrible impact on the globe, Fig. 5 showing the area of permafrost
in Siberia and Canada.
under the northern oceans there are ice-like structures called clathrates.41
A rise of merely 3oC in local water temperature could cause some of
the methane to escape.42 There is strong evidence that this mechanism
contributed to at least two extreme warming events in the geologic past.43
It is a false assumption that forests will remain carbon sinks. Carbon
offsets are only a short-term money-making solution. When global temperatures
reach 1oC trees start being the source of carbon, not the sink.44 The
2003 heat wave in Europe caused woodlands to release measurable quantities
of CO2.45 Forests in northern regions will increasingly become heating
agents.46 This is why carbon-offsets are a farce and a diversion.
deforestation contribute about one fifth the global carbon emissions.
This is second only to the burning of fossil fuels. In one day deforestation
releases the same amount of CO2 as 8 million people flying from London
to New York. Some 1.6 billion trees are logged each year.,47 and has
turned Indonesia into the third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases
in the world, followed by Brazil.48
rise is producing unstoppable megafires, like the recent conflagration
in California where many small fires joined to create one huge fire
with a front that stretched for hundreds of kilometres. They are likely
to become the norm as rain falls a third or more.49 The fire produced
in ten days one-and-half times California’s entire annual CO2–e
output.50 The impact on global warming will be considerable.
drought and fires killed half a billion metric tons of trees. Ten percent
of Alaska burnt in 2004/5, followed by mudslides that made it impossible
for the forests to regrow.51
The great tropical forests of the Amazon, the Congo and Borneo are near
their critical resiliency threshold as rainfall moves away.52 One recent
test shows that after three years of continuous drought the tree cover
in the Amazon just falls over. 53 If the current rate of clearing doubles
the forest is likely to destabilise, with the potential to double human
emissions in a decade, while absorbing less and less of what we put
quarter of our carbon emissions are now being absorbed by the soil.
There is some 300 times as much carbon trapped in the soils as we release
each year from burning fossil fuels. Even over the past 25 years 13
Mts of carbon held in UK soils has been released each year.55 Yet globally,
soil could soon be releasing large quantities as heat speeds up the
metabolism of the microbes in the soil.56 Peter Cox estimated this could
increase temperature-rise by a further 40%57 as it ejects all the man-made
carbon it has absorbed over the past 150 years. 58
quarter of our carbon emissions are now being absorbed by the oceans.59
As oceans heat they absorb less carbon:60 the north Atlantic is now
absorbing only half the CO2 that it was a decade ago.61 The chemistry
of the oceans is changing more quickly than we could imagine.62
sea level has risen 1.8mm per year for the last 50 years,63 but in the
last decade this rate has more than doubled. Whole islands are disappearing,
and Lohachara with 20,000 inhabitants in the Bay of Bengal has disappeared
altogether.64 This is escalating so fast that there could be 50 million
environmental refugees within 3 years.65
patterns depend on stratospheric air currents and deep ocean currents,
both of which are changing. The Atlantic Gulf Stream is driven by cold
water from the Arctic, which is retreating three times faster than estimated
by any of the 18 computer models used by the IPCC in preparing its 2007
assessments,66 Fig. 6,67 and this summer temperatures in some areas
have been 15oC above the average.68 A US Navy survey suggests there
will be no summer ice left by 2016.69
affect the Gulf Stream that brings warm surface water to northern Europe.
The flow has slowed one third in the past 50 years.70 Some computer
models predict a possibility that the current will collapse as it has
in the past, with a devastating effect on bordering states.71
As oceans take up CO2 the pH falls, and becomes too acid for shells
to form.72 Oceans have acidified by 0.1 pH that has reduced plankton
by 40% in some areas. Greater acidity makes it hard for organisms like
corals, shellfish, sea urchins and starfish to build their calcium structures
from carbon. The consequence is that less CO2 can be absorbed by the
sea. Fifty years ago, for every tonne of CO2 emitted, 600kg were removed
by land and ocean sinks. However, in 2006 only 550kg was removed.73
This is positive feedback with a vengeance.
Many fish stocks are in crisis. A third of fish stocks have collapsed,
and up to 90% of predator fish have disappeared.74 Marine food security
is being threatened, which is devastating for the many coastal communities
dependant on fishing.75
Catastrophic weather is forecast in all models. There has been an increase
in extreme, damaging events, particularly in coastal areas. In the past
35 years the number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes worldwide has doubled
while the wind speed and duration of all hurricanes has jumped by half.76
Catastrophe will begin to strike often at the same place, as with New
Orleans tat was devastated by Hurricane Katrina (half the population
has not returned) and again flooded in September 2007.
temperatures soar by 5oC, droughts will occur nine out of every 10 years,
and water supplies will decline by about 60%.77 Lack of water is already
threatening electricity supplies and many country towns are under severe
predicts coasts will be battered with massive 100-year storms and 110-metre
storm surges that would destroy properties well above sea level, and
erode the coastline.78 Cyclones are expected to range down the whole
of the Queensland eastern coast. Cyclone Larry in March ’06 obliterated
the Queensland banana crop and pushed prices up four or five times.
Agriculture is already in crisis from drought, flood, habitat destruction,
over-harvesting, pollution, collapse of bee colonies,79 and the migration
of pests. The IPCC report expects a one-quarter crop-loss by the end
of the century when global population is expected to have doubled.80
In the past year the price of wheat has more than doubled, and our crop
is projected to be a quarter of expectation.81 With over a billion malnourished
today,82 how can the world feed so many more with a minimal reduction
in agriculture of one quarter at 2oC?
over twenty years show that rising temperatures is causing a loss in
wheat, rice, soyabeans, corn and barley83 that works out at a ±4%
for every half-degree rise.84 Rice is particularly at risk as pollen
is sterilised if local temperature stays above 35oC for one hour during
the interaction between sunlight and fossil fuel pollution is rising
at about 1.5% a year. This could reduce global crop yields by a further
third over the next two decades.86 Globally, the area under drought
has doubled between 1970 and the early 2000s. The magnitude of the impacts
is already overwhelming some areas such as the Sudan.
these will disrupt global food supplies and hasten mass starvation.
One third of land-based species are now facing extinction.87 This is
one of the hugest extinctions in earth’s history and threatens
humanity’s very survival. Expansion of diseases such as malaria,
diarrhoea and cholera are all associated with heat.88
cities: This year, for the first time, half of the world’s population
is living in cities,89 and most of the extra population will join them.90
People who were once able to provide their own food will now have to
be fed by those that remain on the land. Megacities on the coast would
spill their population into the nearby fertile countryside, disrupting
already-critical food production. Low-lying cities like Bangkok are
already sinking into the sea.91
"Owing to the confluence of nuclear proliferation, migration into
megacities and the centralization of economies within these cities,
human society is extremely precarious."92 As cities disintegrate
where will the people go? As their houses cover more land where will
the food that is decreasing available come from to feed them?
On the other
hand, a large ‘lumpen proletariat’ exercising enormous political
power from the concentration of numbers, poses even more unsettling
possibilities as increasingly severe weather along coastal areas and
sea-level rise leads to mass movements.
Christian Aid predicts that a billion people will become refugees over
the next 50 years.93 A one meter sea-level rise would affect 6 million
people in Egypt, 13 million in Bangladesh, and 72 million in China.
The anticipated multi-meter sea rise from glacier collapse will directly
uproot 1,000 million people, one in six of the world's population, and
three-quarters of them live in Asia. The ricochet will be far-reaching
and incalculable as more people will be on the move than ever before.
European countries struggling to feed their populations with a falling
supply of food, water, and energy, eyeing Russia, whose population is
already in decline, for its grain, minerals, and energy. Or Japan, with
flooded coastal cities and contamination of its fresh water, eying Russia’s
Sakhalin Island oil to power desalination plants and energy-intensive
agricultural processes. Envision Pakistan, India, and China skirmishing
at their borders over these refugees, as well as over access to shared
rivers, and the remaining arable land.
for water, land, food and shelter, and from mass migration will exert
huge pressure on resources in neighbouring countries where refugees
will flee to, many of which are already vulnerable. A Pentagon Report
stated "As famine, disease and weather-related disasters strike...
many countries' needs will exceed their carrying capacity. This will
create a sense of desperation, which is likely to lead to offensive
aggression" and the probable death of billions.94
Alert has identified 61 countries that are politically volatile and/or
have recently been fighting. Two-thirds of global arms exports are sent
to these unstable countries.95 Half a dozen of them have nuclear potential
as these weapons continue to spread to countries at severe climate-risk.96
The disruption following even small wars would bring mass starvation
and additional climatic disruption.97
circumstances I do not see any way these misfortunes can be prevented.
Finance and Insurance: There are many studies on the positive economic
value of rapidly adapting to climate change. They all predicted that
if this was begun at the time of writing (1999-2004) and if Australians
started to retool now they would be better off in fifty years, but if
they left it for only ten years they would be much worse off.
such positive studies: The Australian Business Roundtable on Climate
Change (involving Westpac and Origin Energy),98 Peter Cosier to the
Wentworth Group,99 various insurance groups,100 the Allianz Group101
and the Australian Business Council for Sustainable Energy.102 Little
of this bore fruit.
Now it may
be too late. This does not mean that their advice should not be taken,
for we should do we can to clean up the earth, but nothing will stop
us reaching 2oC except for massive and immediate reduction in emissions.
Since the grindingly slow evolution of international agreements will
not succeed in time, we must prepare.
be making the decisions for us, and eliminating prosperity and private
wealth in the process.
is one of the foundations of personal and commercial security. Disastrous
weather and heat could bankrupt the industry within a short time.103
Globally, disaster losses increased from $70 billion in the 1960s to
$600 billion in 1990s, and this trend is expected to continue. Total
economic losses (insured and uninsured) are doubling every 10 years.
They are 15 times higher today than in the 1960s, even after adjusting
for inflation. Insurance premiums are an indication of the cost of climate
tipping point: Massive change and threats to life bring compassion and
strengthen communities, but also rage, grief and shock. These inevitable
human responses highlight the importance of developing an informed and
resilient public that understands that government is not only concerned,
but proactive in creating viable solutions.
We all know,
be it consciously or unconsciously, that we are killing the world we
love, and our families and friends. The emotions this stir are being
hidden. Massive and almost universal refusal to face the truth is creates
a permanent shock to the collective psyche, with well-known psychotic
outcome is to withdraw to our sofas and wait for someone else to fix
it. Another is to make hay while the sun shines, which underlies much
of the greed that is driving our culture. That so many can be so blind
to the reality and so active in increasing the damage to our future
just emphasises the communal withdrawal from reality.
some deep unconscious understanding of our situation when the term ‘Y-generation’
was first used in 1993?106 Did this imply that the next, the Z-generation
born after 1995, could be the last?
If we were desperate enough we would all be on the streets in tens of
millions, or are we too addicted to our comforts? Is altering our lifestyles
too large a price to pay? Are we unconsciously intoning to ourselves
“I would prefer to be dead than give up what I have got!”
consensus is politically driven, and is irrelevant. Most politicians
and green groups are satisfied with demanding we cut existing emissions
by 60% of 1990 levels in the next 40 years. The above argument shows
we need to achieve much more than that in the next ten, Fig. 7, of the
emissions gap that shows our current trajectory compared to the immediate
reductions we need.
trading and carbon taxes are based on the assumption that rich countries
can go on living in the same way with minimal adjustments to the system.107
The rush to ‘clean coal’ and sequestration follows the same
rationale.108 Long-term these are useful only if we have a survival
strategy already in place.
George Monbiot described these solutions as "pushing the food around
on your plate to give the impression that you have eaten it." Emission
trading diverts investment from renewable technology, retains current
profits and prolongs the world's dependence on oil, coal and gas. It
is designed to maintain our standard of living while continuing to extract
as much fossil fuel out of the ground as we can.
It is too
late for market solutions. It is too late to try to keep our prosperity
as sumptuous as it is. With ten years to go, our politicians are leading
from the rear.
The one strategy
that could combine limits to consumerism and equi-discriminatory restrictions
on emitters is to use carbon rationing109 to bring emissions and consumption
down.110 But against political inertia there is nothing we can do in
the short time we have, and therefore we must prepare.
from the above argument:
To keep below
the 2oC threshold the world needs to cut emissions by 10% every year
over the next 10 years, starting now. This means reducing personal consumption
and encouraging renewable technologies.
In the final
analysis it comes down to transforming our consumer society. If we would
all buy less and travel less, we would emit less.111 This is why the
public has to be involved in the risk assessment process.
required changes are revolutionary, and are pointless without some global
consensus, we can assume that some nations will not change, and therefore
we in Australia should prepare on our own. Sequestration and nuclear
and renewables are less urgent than planning how this country and her
people can cope as the climate becomes seriously worse.
Australia is one of the few countries that could survive the coming
disintegration as we can seal our borders, have plentiful resources
and an educated citizenry. This is our great advantage.
issues will affect and often distort the critical decisions we will
have to make, it is up to us as thinkers and communicators to open the
debate on the dilemmas that will affect decision-making.
When hundreds of millions are hungry and dispossessed do we help them
from our own food resources that are in decline, and do we welcome them
here, and in what numbers? Or do we protect our borders and try to survive
inside Fortress Australia?
As the seas
rise and trade and oil imports are reduced, how do we restore the manufacturing
industries we have lost overseas? Who funds the reconstruction of flooded
infrastructure, especially as there will be additional littoral damage
from cyclones, prolonged heat waves, hail and drought?
should the community accept for compensating those who have lost their
waterfront homes? Who compensates who for the lost mortgages? How do
we house our own refugees? Do we compel those with houses further up
the hill to open their doors to those who have been flooded?
And how do
we handle law and order when food may be scarce, transport rationed,
and increasing numbers of refugees in a country that is no longer self-sufficient
in manufacture or agriculture?
management becomes more important, what level of government direction
do we accept? What of rationing of petrol and even food? Some level
of draconian political control will be required over where we work and
how we distribute food and services. What are the minimum limits to
such powers, and is our slow-moving legal system able to protect our
rights at a time of rapid change?
petrol the distribution of food and other goods will change, and shopping
centres will turn into warehouses. The issues of ownership, compensation
and retooling involving some of the politically most powerful groups
in the country need to be thought through now, rather than in ten years.
As the tax
base declines what are the priorities for essential services like hospitals
and schools compared to public transport and security? Where will the
money come from for rebuilding coastal infrastructure, and do we start
this work while we still have a powerful economy?
Above all, emotional happiness would be under server stress as our wealthy
culture shrinks inwards. I like to think it would be the greatest service
to our community to encourage public awareness of how the future is
going to affect each person. An aware public should be more able to
face the future. To ignore these issues while we have time is to open
ourselves to panic and polarisation when it comes.
Risk Assessment Council would investigate the issues and prepare citizens
for the changes that are coming. Then people may alter their private
and commercial lives with the confidence that government is facing the
issues and determined to deal with them for the common good.
In this way
we could develop a national resilience to a total shift in life expectations.
1 IPCC “Climate
Change 2007” Fourth assessment report; Stern, Review on the economics
of climate change, HM Treasury 2006; Schellnhuber, Avoiding Dangerous
Climate Change, 2006, Cambridge.
Expert Study Group Report, Climate Change and Sustainable Development,
based on IPCC figures.
3 James Lovelock,
Revenge of Gaia, Penguin, 2006.
New Scientist, June 2003
Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, Cambridge, 2006, and in www.planetextinction.com/
planet_extinction_consequences.htm; May 2007 Bangkok IPCC, Herald Tribune
4 May 2007:
of the European Union, 11th March 2005. Information note 7242/05 at
and Swart (Eds), “Targets and indicators of climate change: Working
Group II of the Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases”, Stockholm
Environment Institute, 1990; Hare, Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change,
2006, 191-9; Grassl et al, WBGU Special Report, Berlin, 2003, 11.
“Possible world emissions by 2010”, Footprints #6, January
9 IPCC, Mitigation
of Climate Change. Unpublished draft report, 2007, version 3.0; Stern,
The Economics of Climate Change, 2006; DEFRA, The Scientific Case for
Setting a Long-Term Emission Reduction Target, 2003, www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climatechange/pubs/
pdf/ewp_targetscience.pdf; Meinshausen, “What Does a 2°C Target
Mean for Greenhouse Gas Concentrations?” in Schellnhuber, Avoiding
Dangerous Climate Change, 2006, Cambridge.
“A primer on the geological occurrence of gas hydrate”,
Geol. Soc. London, Spec. #137, 1998, 9-30
et al, Methane Hydrates in Quaternary Climate Change, Washington, 2006;
Buffett et al, "Global inventory of methane clathrate: sensitivity
to changes in the deep ocean", Earth and Planetary Science Letters
227 (2004) 185–199.
and Marquand, New Scientist; Zimov et al, “Climate Change: Permafrost”,
Science, June 2006: 1612-1613;
Mitigation of Climate Change. Unpublished draft report, 2007, version
“Causes of the d13C anomalies of carbonates and a new paradigm
'Gas Hydrate Hypothesis'”, Journal Geological Society, Japan,
101, 1999, 902-924
When Life Nearly Died, London, 2003; Kiehl, Geology, Sept 2003, 757-60.
Glickson, “Sea change: implications of the 4th IPCC report for
21st century climate
change”, The Australian Geologist, December, 2007; Rahmstorf et
al., “Recent climate observations compared to projections”,
Science Express, 1 Feb, 2007, 1-10.1126/science 1136843.
Hansen on ABC 7.30 Report, 13.3.2007.
and National Security Dr John James October 2007, page 10
vervaking/1970/ta1970.pdf; US EIA.
21 John Vidal, “China could overtake US as biggest emissions culprit
by November”, The Guardian, 25th April 2007.
23 Tim Flannery
on ABC Lateline 8/10/2007
24 HM Government,
Climate Change: The UK Programme 2006, www.defra.gov.uk/environment/
25 IPCC Synthesis
Report 2007, November 2007
et al, "Impact of terrestrial biosphere carbon exchanges on the
anomalous CO2 increase in 2002–2003", Geophysical Research
Letters, Vol. 34, 5 May 2007.
Panel on Climate Change, February 2007, Climate Change 2007: The Physical
Science Basis. Summary for Policymakers.
www.ipcc.ch/WG1_SPM_17Apr07.pdf ; Peter deMenocal, Lamont-Doherty Earth
Observatory, Columbia University.
Association for the Advancement of Science.
30 UK symposium
on "Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change".
Glacier Monitoring Service.
Antarctic Survey, Journal of Geophysical Research (Earth Surface), www.abc.net.au/science/news/
Academy of Sciences.
and Hall, “Glaciers”, Atlas of Earth observations related
to global change, 1993, 401-422.
“Melting ice could submerge London and New York,” Guardian
Weekly, 23 July 2005.
New Scientist, April 2005.
“The Frozen bogs of Siberia are melting”, Footprints #6,
and Archer, "Global inventory of methane clathrate: sensitivity
to changes in the deep ocean", Earth and Planetary Science Letters
227, 2004, 185–199.
et al., “Is the extent of glaciation limited by marine gas hydrates?”
Geophysical Research Letters, 18, 1991, 432-434
et al, Nature, Sept. 2005: 245-8.
Livermore National Laboratory, Carnegie Institution and Université
47 Ian Pearson,
UK Climate Change Minister.
Canopy Program report May 2007, www.globalcanopy.org/vivocarbon
Climate Change and National Security Dr John James October 2007, page
“Impacts of Global Climate Change at Different Annual Mean Global
Increases”, Schellnhuber, Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, Cambridge,
54 Cox, Avoiding
Dangerous Climate Change, 2006, 155-61.
National Soil Resources Institute, Cranfield University.
et al, Geophysical Research Letters, May 2003: 1479.
Peter Cox, Exeter University.
58 UK Met.
“Carbon held in the oceans”, Footprints #6,
“Avoiding Catastrophe”, Friends of the Earth, Australia,
62 Dec 10:
“Impacts of global climate change at different annual mean global
increases” in Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, Schellnhuber,
for Environment and Human Security, UN University, Bonn.
Stroeve et al."Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Faster Than Forecast?"
Geophysical Research Letters, vol.34
69 US National
Snow and Ice Data Centre, Colorado.
Nature, Dec. 2005: 565-6 and Bryden, Nature, Dec 2005: 655-7.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
Society, Policy Doc. 12/05.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, 23 October 2007
74 UN Global Environment Outlook-4 Report, October 2007.
of Climate Change, Pests and Diseases on Food Security and Poverty Reduction."
31st FAO Session on World Food Security, Rome. 23-26 May 2005 at www.fao.org/clim/docs/CFS/CFS.pdf.
76 Time magazine,
29 March 2006, www.time.com/time/magazine/
81 SMH, 27
and National Security Dr John James October 2007, page 12
et al, "Natural resources and an optimum human population."
Population and Environment 15, 1994, 347-369.
Research Letters, March 2007.
et al, Phil. Trans. Royal Society, Nov. 2005, 1983-9.
86 Long et
al, Phil. Trans. Royal Society, Nov. 2005, 2011-20.
88 Patz et al, Nature, Nov. 2005, 310-17 and IPCC at
89 UN Global
Environment Outlook-4 Report, October 2007.
sinking under rising seas”, www./news.aol.com/science
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, UCLA.
98 IAG climatechangeroundtable
104 ABI Financial_Risks_of_Climate_Change.pdf.
Stress Disorder, American Psychiatric Association: Diagnostic and statistical
manual of mental disorders, 1994, Washington.
pd; CCS Enquiry Oct 06 (2).pdf.
111 For suggested
micro-changes see George Monbiot’s Heat, Paul Brown’s The
Last Chance for
James Lovelock’s The Revenge of Gaia;
Share Your Insights
it! And spread the word!
Here is a unique chance to help this article to be read by thousands
of people more. You just Digg it, and it will appear in the home page
of Digg.com and thousands more will read it. Digg is nothing but an
vote, the article with most votes will go to the top of the page. So,
as you read just give a digg and help thousands more to read this article.