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Crunch Time For President Musharraf And Pakistan Politics

By Safdar Jafri

31 May, 2008
Countercurrents.org

In an interesting but anticipated move, the ruling coalition of Pakistan seems to have reached an agreement to remove President Musharaf from power. The move was anticipated after Asif Zardari, the leader of majority party PPP, suddenly decided to drop his backing for President Musharaf in the wake of growing public demand to unconditionally restore the sacked judges of the Supreme Court, whom President Mushraf had removed. There have also been growing calls to remove President Musharaf from power because he no longer enjoys the support of majority of elected parliamentarians. Some experts believe that the reason Mr Zardari took so long to make up his mind in this matter was the continued pressure from the US in support of President Musharaf which seems to have subsided lately. The question however is not whether the ruling coalition has the will and ability to remove President Musharaf from power as it clearly has both. It is whether Mr Musharaf will allow such move to topple him and leave without resistance.

Constitutionally, he can certainly prevent any such move. Article 58 (2) (b), the infamous amendment in the constitution that has been used at several ocassions in the past by Pakistani Presidents to remove elected governments, gives him full authority to dismiss the elected assemblies by one brief order on short notice and call for new elections. Given his recent clear unwillingness to resign and leave the office in a dignified manner rather than being impeached and removed through an official move by the ruling coalition, it seems that Musharaf would be quite inclined to use this power if he has to prevent his unceremonious fall. However, if he dissolves the elected assemblies in a pre-emptive strike on his opponents, the consequences for the country and its fragile democratic institutions can be quite grave and far reaching.Rumours are also around that Mr Musharaf, in the wake of growing opposition against his rule, may also be inclined to use another of his important powers and replace the current Army chief General Kiani, whom he had himself appointed, by a more trustworthy man, Nadim Taj - a Urdu-speaking, long standing confidante of President Musharaf and quite importantly, a close relative of his wife Sehba Musharaf.

But in Pakistani politics there are many a slip between cup and tea. Mr Musharaf knows well that if he uses the draconian power of disolving the assemblies, then the country will most certainly plunge into another deep choas, hurting the political standing and economc conditions further. But when push comes to shove, he may have to secure his own back than think about the consequences for the country. Also important is the fact that even though President Musharaf is capable of replacing the army chief with a more trusted man, today's reality is that General Kiani is the man in power and calls the shots. He is reputed as a quiet man and he has certainly lived up to this reputation as he has not made any public statements on the current political crisis brewing in the country. But he is also known as a man of action. It is quite possible that before Mr Musharaf strikes and removes him, he moves first by staging the fifth army coup in the sixty-year history of Pakistan. With the threat of religious extremism, terrorism and growing US concerns about stability in Pakistan, any kind of instability in the power structure of the country will catapult Pakistan into further chaos and uncertainty.

Another possible scenario is that such rumors would put General Kiani and others connected to the situation on alert and Musharraf may see the game plan backfire. If the situation develops along these lines, then it is highly likely that Musharaf may be given an opportunity to quietly step down and be provided safe exit from the country. This scenario will be similar to the exit of Shah of Iran back in 1978 - except that there is unlikely to be an immediate relgious revolution in Pakistan as happened in the case of Iran. The post-Musharaf era in this case, will provide the army and the politicians to work out a paradigm of cooperation, similar to the system operational in Turkey and the country can be put on the track of long term development progress while both the politicians and the army holding key stakes in the political system of Pakistan.

What unfolds in the near future, and one fears that it will be sooner rathan than later, will have far reaching consequences for the country, its political orientation and even its geographic and demographic integrity.


 


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