Letter
From Iraq
By Jeremy Scahill
BAGHDADIraq has become one bizarre series of contradictions. Construction
of what the government boasts will be one of the world's largest mosques
continues in Baghdad, as does work on a new presidential palace, described
by one official as being "like our version of the White House."
On Abu Nuwas Street, workers are putting the finishing touches on the
base for a new sculpture by the much-revered Iraqi artist Mohammed Ghani.
The work: a great flying carpet, inspired by one of the tales of Thousand
and One Nights. In fact, it's difficult to go anywhere in central Baghdad
without seeing workers building or repairing something.
But in homes throughout
the country, there is a different sort of labor under way, and it is
being carried out with much greater urgency. Families are digging wells
for water and buying up canned goods, cooking gas and heating oil. Wealthier
families are buying generators. Some Iraqis say they will leave the
city and head for family farms or homes in more rural areas. Others
say they will not leave, some of them fearing looting in the event of
internal strife. Among ordinary Iraqis, the enthusiastic rhetoric of
defending the country against a US invasion has now been replaced by
the stark realization that the eleventh hour has arrived.
On the surface, the daily
routine persists. The streets remain congested with cars in a country
where twenty-five gallons of gas costs little more than $2. The markets
are crowded. Old men slam dominoes on tables as they puff nargila pipes.
Children have just finished their midterm recess and are returning to
school; their parents go to work. But almost no one harbors illusions.
"All of us are scared because we tasted it before," said Aqbal
Fartus, a primary school teacher in the southern port city of Basra.
Fartus lives in the heart of the so-called no-fly zones, where US and
British warplanes--with no United Nations mandate--have regularly bombed
Iraq since 1998. On the morning of January 25, 1999, her oldest son,
6-year-old Heider, was killed by a US missile as he played in front
of his home. His brother, Mustafa, lost two fingers in the attack and
lives with shrapnel in his back. Four years after Heider's death, Fartus
learned that she was once again pregnant. "We want this baby to
improve our situation," she said--but she lost her baby two days
after the interview. "It's hard," she said. "It's very,
very, very hard because you can't do much other than wait for the bombs
to fall on our city."
Meanwhile, the UN is already
preparing for its role during the war and in the administration of a
post-Saddam Iraq, as made clear in internal documents obtained by The
Nation. One document says that "planning figures" for war
foresee up to 800,000 Iraqis crossing the border into neighboring countries
to seek asylum, with 500,000 asylum seekers stranded at borders inside
Iraq. The greatest number, according to the report, would seek to enter
Iran. Another document indicates that the UN is anticipating what it
calls a "medium impact" scenario: "The military campaign
encounters significant resistance, but ends after a more protracted
period of two to three months. As a result of a large-scale ground offensive
supported by aerial bombardments, there would be considerable destruction
of critical infrastructure and sizable internal and external population
movements." The report says there is a "major risk" of
civil unrest in areas around Iraq that is "likely to result in
high levels of casualties." In what could be a telling indication
of the kind of timeline US-led forces are working on, the UN predicts
it will be able to regain access to southern Iraq approximately thirty
days after the start of the conflict but does not foresee reaching Baghdad
until three or more months after the war begins.
A Western humanitarian official
says that many UN workers have already begun quietly leaving the country
in anticipation of massive attacks, although officially they are taking
"vacations." By the end of February, some UN agencies will
be operating with only skeletal staffs. The quiet departure, says the
source, is intended to avoid creating panic and the impression that
war is imminent. The UN has four "phases" describing its security
status in the country. Officially, it remains at Phase I, the lowest
status, but "they all know what is coming," said the official,
who asked not to be identified. "It's just not official policy
yet." Several foreign embassies have already withdrawn their personnel
or say they will do so soon.
Perhaps the most revealing
UN document is a draft report of the UN's Executive Committee on Peace
and Security, dated January 7, 2003, which discusses potential scenarios
involving UN assistance to a successor government in Iraq. "In
the short term, the external force waging the war will be in command
and may administer the country or impose a certain authority,"
the document says. "Gradually, after four to eight months, the
UN may be given more room for limited responsibility in terms of governance
and the establishment of security and justice." It goes on to say,
"It is unlikely that the UN will play a major role similar to that
in Eastern Slavonia [the region of Croatia that borders Serbia] or East
Timor. The UN role is likely to be determined according to the request
of either the new authority or the foreign forces that will provoke
a regime change through war." In other words, the UN will do only
what the United States tells it to do, or allows it to do.
The document discusses establishing
a "transitional administration," saying UN agencies "might
be asked to assist in nation and institution building." It envisions
two major components of operations: "1) the first 100 days, and
2) Road Map for Reform (2 to 3 years of operations)." The document
asserts that "even under a new type of government, it is likely
that the country may slip back into its old ways" and that the
UN "would also expect" that the new regime would make "political
overtures to important neighbors and major powers at the same time as
disciplinary measures against their agents in Iraq--the arrest and execution
of Israeli, Iranian and US/UK agents." It continues, "In this
mentality it would be quite consistent, indeed positively advisable,
to allow the UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights into Iraq to denounce
the excesses of the previous regime while reminding all concerned of
the where the [sic] new 'red lines' were placed."
The Iraqi government is well
into war mode. Television is rife with videos of members of the Fedayou
Saddam (Saddam Militia), marching in Hezbollah-type garb. Military parades
are being staged for journalists. The Baath Party is giving weapons
to anyone who signs up for the party, and gunshop owners report significant
increases in purchases. While the official line is that there will be
fierce resistance across Iraq, privately officials seem resigned to
the idea that the ground battle against a US-led invading force will
ultimately be fought in Baghdad. While the government may quite possibly
consolidate its resistance in the capital and offer fierce resistance,
it is unlikely it could do so elsewhere in the country.
The tension and fears in
Basra and elsewhere in the south, with its overwhelming Shiite population,
are clearer than in Baghdad. Already the region suffers like no other
in Iraq. People are caught between government repression and a deadly
US-led policy of sanctions and regular bombing. The area will be a major
focal point of any war, as it borders Kuwait, a certain entry point
for invading US forces. "We have learned a great lesson since the
Gulf War," said a Basra resident who asked to remain anonymous
for fear of reprisal. "America told us to rise up and then watched
the people get massacred in the streets. You can't imagine what happened
here. This time, no one will leave their homes."
The hatred of the government
in the south is clear, and there is little question that a change of
government would be welcomed. But "we don't want the change to
come through America's bombs," said another individual who requested
anonymity. "Some people see it as enduring bombing, hoping to survive
and then starting over without him [Saddam]. But most of us want a peaceful
change brought about from within. We don't want anymore misery here."
There are rumors that Iraqi
generals in the south are waiting for the right moment to rise up; the
ordinary army there is staffed largely by unenthusiastic, poor, hungry
soldiers who residents say will not defend the regime. But the government
also has loyalists in the area, including an extensive network of secret
police, as well as Baath Party and other militias. "All of them
will fight for the regime, but the rest of us will stay in our homes
and watch and wait," said a southern Shiite.
Hundreds of Iraqi imams,
including those at the holy shrines at Najaf and Karbala, have signed
on to a fatwa (a religious decree) calling for jihad against any invading
forces. "This is not a war against Iraq, this is a war against
Islam," says Abdul Rihad, the imam at the biggest Shiite mosque
in Basra. He adds, "We don't like to fight. But if war is imposed
on the Iraqi people, they should fight for their land, their blood,
their family. But we do not want that, because this war will be a loser
for both sides." Even those Iraqis in the south who said they would
welcome a change of government also said they would fight US forces
if they attempted to occupy their area. And perhaps that is what Saddam
Hussein is banking on.
As the UN and the Iraqi populations
wait, it is worth considering that the most striking fact about the
UN documents is their acknowledgment that a new regime in Baghdad brought
about by war would probably be much like the old one, sans Saddam Hussein.
Such a conclusion reinforces the sense that there has thus far been
no satisfactory answer to the question that millions of people around
the world have been asking through protest for months: Why?
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[from the March 3, 2003 issue
of The Nation magazine.]
Jeremy Scahill is an independent journalist, who reports for the nationally
syndicated Radio and TV show Democracy Now! He is currently based in
Baghdad, Iraq, where he and filmmaker Jacquie Soohen are coordinating
Iraqjournal.org, the only website providing regular independent reporting
from the ground in Baghdad.