After Iraq, Bush
will attack his real target
by Eric Margolis
President George Bush wrapped
himself in the American flag and won a major victory last week as US
voters gave control of both houses of Congress to the Republican party.
In mid-term elections, the party in power almost always fares badly,
but this year an electorate, gripped by fear of terrorism, and whipped
into war fever by high-voltage propaganda, voted Republican. Thank you
Osama and Saddam.
One poignant photo said it
all: Georgia's defeated Democratic senator, Max Cleland, sitting in
a wheelchair, missing both legs and an arm lost in combat in Vietnam.
This highly decorated hero was defeated by a Vietnam war draft-dodger
who had the audacity to accuse Cleland of being "unpatriotic"
after the senator courageously voted against giving Bush unlimited war-related
powers. I do not recall a more shameful moment in American politics.
Bush's victory is clearly
a mandate to proceed with his crusade against Iraq. Preparations for
war are in an advanced stage. The US has been quietly moving heavy armour
and mechanized units from Europe to the Mideast. Three division equivalents
and a Marine heavy brigade are now in theatre. An armada of US warplanes
is assembling around Iraq, which is bombed almost daily. US special
forces are operating in northern Iraq, and, along with Israeli scout
units, in Iraq's western desert near the important H2 airbase. The war
could begin as early as mid-December if there is no coup against Saddam
Hussein.
But for all the propaganda
about wicked Saddam, Iraq is not the main objective for the small but
powerful coterie of Pentagon hardliners driving the Bush administration's
national security policy. Nor is it for their intellectual and emotional
peers in Israel's right-wing Likud party. The real target of the coming
war is Iran, which Israel views as its principal and most dangerous
enemy. Iraq merely serves as a pretext to whip America into a war frenzy
and to justify insertion of large numbers of US troops into Mesopotamia.
Israeli defence officials
have long dismissed demolished Iraq as a minor threat, even though it
likely has between six and 18 old Scud missiles hidden away. Saddam
did not use chemical weapons in 1991 for fear of Israeli nuclear retaliation.
Israel now has the world's most advanced anti-missile system, Arrow,
with two batteries operational, and numerous batteries of the latest
US Patriot missiles in place.
The prevailing view in the
Israeli military is that Iraq will be quickly defeated by US forces,
and then likely split into two or three cantons. Israel's North American
supporters, however, are still being given the party line that Israel
is in mortal danger from Iraq.
Iran is a different story.
Iran is expected to produce a few nuclear weapons within five years
to counter Israel's large nuclear arsenal, and is developing medium-range
missiles, Shahab-3s and -4s, that can easily reach Tel Aviv.
With 68 million people and
a growing industrial base, Iran is seen by Israel as a serious threat
and major Mideast geopolitical rival. Both nations have their eye on
Iraq's vast oil reserves.
Israel's newly appointed
hardline defence minister, former air force chief Shaul Mofaz, who was
born in Iran, has previously threatened to attack Iran's nuclear installations.
Thanks to long-range F-15Is supplied by the US, plus cruise and ballistic
missiles, Israel can strike targets all over Iran. This week, Israel's
grand strategy was clearly revealed for the first time, though barely
noticed by North American media, as Prime Minister Ariel Sharon called
for an invasion of Iran "the day after" Iraq is crushed.
Elections in Israel at the
end of January will probably return Sharon's Likud party and its extreme
rightist allies to power, this time with a strengthened position. Ferocious
competition for party leadership between the iron-fisted Sharon and
the even more hardline Benjamin Netanyahu suggests a further move to
the far right, zero chance for peace with Palestinians, and a more aggressive
policy towards Israel's unloving neighbours.
In the US, Pentagon hardliners
are drawing up plans to invade Iran once Iraq and its oil are "liberated."
They hope civil war will erupt in Iran, which is riven by bitterly hostile
factions, after which a pro-US regime will take power. If this does
not occur, then Iraq-based US forces will be ideally positioned to attack
Iran. Or, they could just as well move west and invade Syria, another
of Israel's most bitter enemies.
Israel's Likudniks thirst
for revenge against Syria - and also Iran - for supporting Lebanon's
Hezbollah movement, which drove Israeli forces from Lebanon.
Pentagon superhawk Richard
Perle, told the TVO program Diplomatic Immunity that the US was prepared
to attack Syria, Iran, and Lebanon.
By February or March, the
US media will likely be flooded with dire warnings about the threat
to the world from Iran. Israel's American lobby will turn its guns from
Iraq to Iran. "Links" will surely be "discovered"
between Iran and al-Qaida. The cookie-cutter pattern that worked for
whipping up war psychosis against Iraq should work just as well against
Iran, Syria or Saudi Arabia - and win the next national election. [SC]
(This article
originally appeared in The Toronto Sun
10 November 2002)