How
Many Iraqis Died? We May Never Know
By Edward
Epstein
04 May, 2003
The world will never know how many Iraqis died in the war to oust Saddam
Hussein, in part because the United States adamantly refuses to estimate
the number of people it kills in combat and because gathering accurate
numbers is all but impossible after the Iraqi government's chaotic collapse.
What Bush administration
officials do say is that the U.S. operation in Iraq included unprecedented
efforts to minimize civilian casualties. That humanitarian stance has
increased pressure on the Pentagon to abandon its long- held refusal
to publicly offer numbers of civilians or enemy military personnel killed,
as a way of showing if the use of precision-guided bombs and missiles
and rules designed to avoid civilian targets have reduced so-called
collateral damage.
"We don't do body counts,"
Gen. Tommy Franks, who directed the Iraq invasion, has said.
In his speech aboard the
aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln, President Bush saluted a U.S. military
operation that he said went out of its way to protect Iraqi civilians.
"With new tactics and precision weapons, we can achieve military
objectives without directing violence against civilians. No device of
man can remove the tragedy from war, yet it is a great advance when
the guilty have far more to fear from war than the innocent," he
said.
The historical reluctance
to estimate civilian or even military losses stems from a widespread
belief that it would be all but impossible to separate casualties caused
by American action from those caused by the enemy. As for military losses,
the military's bitter experience with charges of inflated body counts
during the Vietnam War has soured the Pentagon on even offering estimates
of enemy killed, missing or wounded.
Among those who think the
Pentagon should make an informed estimate of Iraqi casualties is Beth
Osborne Daponte, a demographer at Carnegie Mellon University who studied
casualties from the 1991 Gulf War.
"The Pentagon should
be interested in the impact of its intervention on the population,"
she said.
The numbers of Iraqis killed
is a politically charged figure. Before the war, an estimate that originated
with U.N. officials said that 500,000 Iraqis could be killed in the
war, and was widely quoted by the war's opponents.
Before it collapsed, the
Iraqi government claimed on April 3 that 2,252 civilians had been killed
and 5,103 injured. Baghdad fell April 9.
Since the Pentagon won't
make estimates, others have stepped into the void.
A London-based Web site,
www.iraqbodycount.net, has been keeping a running estimate of Iraqi
civilian deaths, based on media accounts from the battlefield. Its figures
-- a minimum of 2,197 deaths to a maximum of 2,670.
The site's researchers required
a minimum of two independent media reports about each incident included
in the casualty estimates, and its sources ranged from Al Jazeera, the
Arab satellite news channel based in Qatar, to the New York Times.
The site's researchers say
they feel frustrated that casualties on the losing end of a war often
end up faceless and forgotten. "However many civilians are killed
in the onslaught on Iraq, their death toll should not go unnoticed by
those who are paying, in taxes, for their slaughter," the site
says.
The site is based on the
work of Marc Herold, a University of New Hampshire economist who conducted
a similar running count of Afghan war casualties. He said the Iraqi
count is probably too low, since researchers have only included incidents
that at least two news organizations reported on.
"Requiring two independent
sources is laudable, but in many instances you have a single person
at the scene who writes it up in great detail," said Herold.
He estimated that the London
counters are probably 10 to 20 percent low in their estimate of civilian
deaths.
Retired Army Gen. Robert
Scales, a commander in the 1991 Gulf War who later wrote the Army's
official history of the conflict, said he doesn't know whether the Web
site's figures are right. But he said the just-concluded war was remarkable
for the U.S. military's successful focus on avoiding civilian losses.
"A hugely disproportionate
number of those who died were intended to die. That's very unusual,"
he said.
In historical terms, Scales
said, civilian losses in Iraq are small. Allied strategic bombing of
Germany in World War II killed an estimated 2 million people in a nation
with a prewar population of about 80 million.
In Iraq, with about 23 million
people, the same proportion of casualties would mean about 575,000 dead
civilians.
In her study of the 1991
war, Daponte estimated that 13,000 civilians were killed directly by
the U.S.-led campaign, which included a month of bombing before the
brief ground war began.
But Herold said the precision
and power of today's U.S. munitions don't translate into lower civilian
casualties, especially when a war involves urban targets, as in Iraq.
He said the "intensity" of civilian casualties -- the number
of civilians who die for each 10,000 pounds of bombs dropped -- is actually
rising, especially as more precision weapons are used.
"Even if these bombs
hit their targets, you'll kill civilians nearby," he said.
But Anthony Cordesman, a
military analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies
in Washington, said in a postwar analysis that the "effects-based"
bombing in Iraq, in which air strikes were aimed at producing specific
effects rather than scattershot damage, limited civilian losses.
"Even Iraqi claims indicate
that the U.S. and U.K. inflicted negligible civilian casualties and
collateral damage in historical terms," he wrote.
Herold and Scales agreed
on one thing, however. They don't think the Pentagon should estimate
the casualties it caused. "Any numbers they produce would be contested,"
said Herold. "They learned their lesson in Vietnam."
The allies do track their
own casualties. So far, 132 American military personnel and 32 British
have been killed in Iraq.