The
Mumbai Massacre
And Pakistan's New Nightmares
By Pervez Hoodbhoy
15 December,
2008
Focus,
Germany
(This interview of Pervez Hoodbhoy was conducted by Cristina Otten for FOCUS. It may be found on-line in German here. A more readable pdf version is also attached here.)
CO: Tensions between Pakistan and India have been growing after the
Mumbai attacks. Are we close to a military escalation?
PH: In spite of vociferous demands by the Indian public, Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh's government has withstood the pressure to conduct
cross-border strikes into Pakistan. Correspondingly, in spite of the
bitter criticism by Islamic parties, Pakistan's government has moved
against the Lashkar-e-Tayyaba (LeT), the jihadist organization that
is almost certainly behind the attacks. For now, the tension has eased
somewhat but another attack could push India over the fence.
CO: What makes the LeT so different from other militant groups? Is
Pakistan really moving against it?
PH: LeT, one of the largest militant groups in Pakistan, was established
over 15 years ago. It had the full support of the Pakistani military
and Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) for over a decade because it
focussed upon fighting Indian rule in Muslim Kashmir. Today it is
one of the very few extremist groups left that does not attack the
Pakistani army and state; in contrast almost all others have turned
into fierce enemies. We now hear that a few members of LeT, who were
named by India, have been arrested. Time will tell whether this was
a serious move, or if this was a ruse to ease the enormous pressure
against Pakistan. If serious, then the Army and ISI will have earned
the bitter enmity of yet another former ally. They are afraid of a
repeat of their experience with Jaish-e-Muhammad, a formerly supported
Islamic militant group that now is responsible for extreme brutalities
against of Pakistani soldiers captured in FATA, including torture
and decapitations. It's a nightmarish situation for the Pakistan Army.
CO: How have Pakistanis reacted to the Mumbai massacre?
PH: The initial reaction was of sympathy. I did not see any celebrations,
contrary to those that I saw after 911. But then, as the Indian TV
channels started accusing Pakistan and demanding that it be bombed
in retaliation, the reaction turned to that of anger and flat denial
- Pakistanis did not want to accept that this attack was done by Pakistanis
or had been launched from Pakistani soil. Subsequently one saw amazing
mental gymnastics. Popular TV anchors, and their guests, invoked far-out
conspiracy theories. Years ago, some of the same anchors had confidently
claimed that Kathmandu-Delhi Indian Airlines Flight 814 (IC814) had
been hijacked by RAW to malign Pakistan. They had also ridiculed the
notion that Pakistan was involved in the Kargil invasion. Now, pointing
to the RSS hand in the Samjhota Express bombing, they are alternately
ascribing the Mumbai attacks to radical Hindus, or to Jews and Americans.
It is sad to see intelligent persons losing their marbles.
CO: Pakistan has always stressed that it will deliver the first nuclear
strike if it feels threatened by India? Do you see any signs on the
Pakistani sign to carry out its threat?
PH: About a week before the Mumbai massacre, President Asif Ali Zardari
had given the assurance that Pakistan would not use nuclear weapons
first. India had announced a no first use policy almost ten years
ago. But Zardari is not taken seriously by the Pakistani generals
who actually control the Bomb, and the Indian NFU declaration is frankly
of no consequence. Cross-border raids by India could well ignite a
conventional war. If that happens, all bets are off and it could escalate
without warning into a nuclear conflict. For many years US defence
strategists, belonging to various think tanks and war colleges, have
been simulating conflicts between Pakistan and India. They say that
a conventional war will almost certainly lead to a nuclear conclusion.
Fear of nuclear weapons has made deterrence work. More accurately,
deterrence has worked only thus far. No guarantees can be given for
the future.
CO: Why did the assassins choose India instead of committing attacks
against Western allies in Afghanistan?
PH: LeT is based around Lahore, which is on the Pakistan-India border,
in a town called Muridke. This has a huge militant training and charity
complex. LeT's membership is mostly Punjabi, which makes it linguistically
and culturally quite unsuited for fighting in Afghanistan. You could
say that LeT is an India-specific, Kashmir-specific group. Indeed,
over the years it has had many military successes in Kashmir against
Indian forces. But LeT, like other militant groups in Pakistan, sees
a nexus between Indians, Americans, and Israelis. Hence they are all
seen as enemies and fair game.
CO: What did the Mumbai terrorists want?
PH: No demands were made and all hostages were killed. So the purpose
of the attack was never formally declared. On the other hand, the
stated goals of LeT and similar organizations based in Pakistan leave
little doubt. The attack clearly sought to hurt India's economy and
its newly acquired reputation as an economic powerhouse, and to create
a climate of war between India and Pakistan. If Pakistan moves its
troops towards the eastern border the pressure on the Pakistani Taliban
in FATA, which is close to the western border, would be lessened.
Still another reason would be to encourage pogroms against Muslims
in India. This would swell the ranks of the extremists, and also have
the added benefit of destabilizing both the Pakistani and Indian states.
Finally, the attack was a means of releasing hatred against non-Muslims.
CO: What differences and parallels do you see between the Mumbai attacks
and the attack in the in Marriott Hotel in Islamabad?
PH: They were quite dissimilar in how they were executed. The Mumbai
attacks were extremely intricate, used GPS and voice-over-internet
protocols for communication purposes, involved extensive military
training, and probably required planning over a period of a year.
The goal was to kill foreigners, particularly Jews and Americans,
although Muslims were also collateral casualties. On the other hand,
the Marriot bombing in Islamabad was a relatively simple affair involving
a single dump-truck with a suicide bomber, and its victims were principally
Muslims. The basic purpose, however, was similar - to destabilize
the Pakistani state, take revenge on the US (2 of the 58 killed were
US marines), and raise the cost of war in Afghanistan and FATA.
CO: In the West experts talk about a new dimension of terror in India.
Do you also see tight connections between Lashkar-e-Taiba and al-Qaida?
PH: One is naturally tempted to guess a nexus between LeT and Al-Qaida.
Of course, they do share similar goals. But in the world that extremists
inhabit, mere similarity is insufficient - it has to be much closer
than that because small ideological differences are amplified out
of proportion. As yet there is no proof of joint operations or cooperation.
So presently this is no more than a plausible hypothesis.
CO: What role does Kashmir play in the current conflict?
PH: Since 1987, Kashmir has been in a state of upheaval. Fraudulent
elections conducted by India led to widespread resentment, followed
by a horrifically bloody crackdown by Indian security forces. Pakistan's
army saw opportunity in this, and waged a covert war in Kashmir using
jihadists to "bleed India with a thousand cuts". The United
Jihad Council, which oversees the activities of an estimated 22 Pakistan-based
organizations, acts outside of the domain of the Pakistani state but
it has had active support from the country's army and intelligence
agencies. The Kargil conflict in 1999 brought matters to a head when
General Musharraf initiated a war with the assistance of jihadist
forces. This inflicted severe damage on Indian forces but Pakistan
was ultimately forced to withdraw. Jihadists subsequently celebrated
General Musharraf as a hero, and vilified Nawaz Sharif for a cowardly
surrender.
CO: In January 2002, General Musharraf had declared that no groups
on Pakistani territory would be permitted to launch cross-border attacks.
Was this promise fulfilled?
PH: Subsequently there indeed was a decline in cross-border infiltrations,
and some lessening of the covert support given by Pakistani agencies.
But this was far from zero and they maintained a strong presence.
On a personal note: soon after the terrible October 8, 2005 earthquake,
I had gone to various areas of Azad Kashmir for relief work. There
I found the Lashkar-i-Tayyaba, Jaish-e-Muhammad, Sipah-i-Sahaba, and
other banned jihadist organizations operating openly and freely using
military-style six-wheeled vehicles, as well as displaying their weapons.
Their relief efforts were far better organized than that of the Pakistan
army and, in fact, they were pulling injured soldiers out of the rubble.
When I mentioned this fact to General Musharraf a few months later
at a Kashmir peace conference, he was very angry at me for discussing
a tabooed subject.
CO: On the one hand, we have radical extremists in Pakistan who want
to bring strict Islamic law into force and demonize the West. On the
other hand, however, the government presents itself as a friend and
ally of the United States. Could you please describe this antagonism
and explain where it originates from? What does this tell us about
the growth of extremism in Pakistan?
PH: Radical extremism is the illegitimate offspring of a union between
the United States under Ronald Reagan, and Pakistan under General
Zia-ul-Haq. Twenty five years ago, the two countries had joined up
to harness Islamic fighters for expelling the Soviets from Afghanistan.
The US was quite happy to see radical Islam spreading because it served
its goal at the time. Simultaneously, Pakistan saw a major social
transformation under General Zia. Prayers in government departments
were deemed compulsory, floggings were carried out publicly, punishments
were meted out to those who did not fast in Ramadan, selection for
university academic posts required that the candidate demonstrate
knowledge of Islamic teachings, and jihad was declared essential for
every Muslim. But today the government is in open conflict with the
radicals. It has to deal with a spontaneous groundswell of Islamic
zeal. The notion of an Islamic state - as yet in some amorphous and
diffuse form - is more popular today than ever before as people look
desperately for miracles to rescue a failing state. Even though the
government and military in Pakistan are allied formally to the US,
the people are strongly against the US.
CO: What parts of the Pakistani society support al-Qaida and Osama
bin Laden?
PH: Baluchistan and Sind are far less supportive than Punjab or the
NWFP. The amazing fact is that parts of Pakistan's upper class - which
is very Westernized but also very anti-Western - also support the
Islamists. I find it tragic that there is no uproar in the country
when Taliban suicide bombers target mosques, funerals, hospitals,
girls schools, and slaughter policemen and soldiers. People have become
so anti-American that it has blinded them to these atrocities. Even
the Pakistani left is thoroughly confused and mistakes the Taliban
as anti-imperialist fighters.
CO: And where do you stand on this matter? Do you see anything that
the Islamists have to offer?
PH: The people of Pakistan need and deserve everything that people
everywhere else want. This means food, jobs, houses to live in, a
system of justice and governance, and protection of life and property.
Equally, people need freedom of worship and thought, education for
both males and females, and protection of their freedom as summarized
in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. These are everybody's
primary needs. After this - a distinct second - come matters that
deal with national sovereignty, foreign policy, various global issues,
etc. Frankly, I cannot see Pakistan's Islamists offering anything
positive. They are against population planning, educating females,
tolerating other sects or religions, etc. They neither know the outside
world, nor want to know it. All they know - and know well - is how
to make war. Fortunately, as their rout in the recent elections showed,
most Pakistanis do not want to live under their narrow doctrines and
belief system.
CO: President Asif Ali Zardari promised to hunt terrorists and to
destroy terror camps in Pakistan? But his affirmations seem to be
halfhearted. Can't he do more or doesn't he want do more?
PH: It is not up to him to do more. The real power lies with the Pakistan
Army, which is still undecided as to who the real enemy is. The Army
has lost nearly two thousand soldiers in battles with extremists.
But it still cannot convince itself that they constitute an existentialist
threat to Pakistan. One can understand this reluctance. Over the years,
officers and soldiers were recruited into the Army on the basis that
they were defenders of Islam and would always fight India. Instead
they now have to fight forces that claim to be even better defenders
of Islam. Worse, they are no longer being called upon to fight India,
which is what they were trained for. So there is confusion and demoralization,
and practically zero public understanding or support. Therefore, Pakistani
soldiers are not fighting well at all in FATA. Many have surrendered
without a fight.
CO: Do you support the government's war against extremists?
PH: This is the first time in my life that I feel the Army should
be supported, but only to the extent that it fights the extremists
without killing innocents. Unfortunately, the Army's current tactic
is to flatten villages suspected of harbouring terrorists. The collateral
damage is huge and completely unacceptable.
CO: Pakistan has armed and financed the Taliban after the US invasion
of Afghanistan. The CIA pays Pakistan to arrest al-Qaeda operatives,
but Pakistan uses the money to fund the Taliban resurgence in northwest
Pakistan. Any changes under the new president?
PH: It will take time - and perhaps still more suffering - to kick
an old habit. Even though the Army is being literally slaughtered
by the Taliban, it continues to make a distinction between the "good"
and "bad" Taliban.
The good ones are, by definition, those who attack only US/Nato or
Indian interests in Afghanistan, but do not attack the Pakistan Army.
The good ones are seen as essential for having a friendly Afghanistan
when, as will surely happen some day, the Americans withdraw. Among
the good Taliban are jihadist leaders such as Jalaludin Haqqani. On
the other hand, Baitullah Mehsud or Maulana Fazlullah, are considered
bad Taliban because they attack the Army and the state. Interestingly,
Army inspired propaganda paints the bad Taliban as Indian agents -
which is quite ridiculous. This false differentiation is the real
reason for the Army's ambivalence and inability to deal effectively
with the Taliban menace.
CO: Pakistan is a nuclear state. Should we fear that one day the Taliban
or al-Qaida could get access to the nuclear arsenal?
PH: I am more worried about extremists having access to nuclear materials,
particularly highly enriched uranium, rather than a completed weapon.
Because of secrecy requirements, it is very difficult for outsiders
to monitor the output of uranium enrichment or plutonium reprocessing
plants. Interestingly, we are seeing a shift away from nuclear weapons
in the West. The unusability of nuclear weapons by national states
is being recognized even by mainstream politicians in the US and Europe
because nuclear weapons now no longer guarantee the monopoly of power.
This makes possible the ultimate de-legitimization of nuclear weapons,
and hence winding down of fissile material production globally. This
may be our best long-term hope of countering the nuclear terrorist
threat, whether by Al-Qaida or other terrorist groups. Meanwhile,
in the short term, great care must be given to watching over suspicious
nuclear activities.
CO: What should India do and what is your forecast for the region?
PH: India should not attack Pakistan. This would be counter-productive
in every possible way. Even if it wins a war, it will be a pyrrhic
victory. On the other hand, a small attack can be no more than a pin-prick.
This would do more harm than good because it will unite the army and
the jihadists who, at this juncture in history, are in serious confrontation
with each other. Worse, even a small attack could lead to large response,
and then escalate out of control. Nuclear armed countries simply cannot
afford skirmishes. I think India's demand for action against jihadist
groups is entirely legitimate, but this must be done by Pakistan,
which is susceptible to international pressure. To get rid of militants
and extremists - whether Muslim or Hindu - is in the best interests
of both Pakistan and India.
CO: Will Pakistani extremists win or can the West still bring about
a rebound?
PH: It's a grim situation but not irreversible. The invasion of Iraq,
and US imperial policies over the last decades, created a hatred for
Americans that ultimately translated into support for all who fight
them. Most Pakistanis do not approve of the Taliban's fundamental
and primitivist social agenda. But, by virtue of fighting the Americans,
popular sentiment is still with them. So, reducing anti-Americanism
is the key. One hopes that Barack Obama will be able to undo some
of the harm his country did to Pakistan. Let's see. But basically
it is for Pakistanis - not Indians or anybody else - to fight it out.
We Pakistanis have to realize that this is a war for our very existence
as a civilized nation. Western support for Pakistan must be very judicious
and not too overt. Similarly, isolating Pakistan, or inflicting harsh
punitive measures, could easily backfire. The Taliban and allied extremists
have a real chance of winning in Pakistan. The state is already crumbling
in places and it could disintegrate quite rapidly, leaving the fanatics
in charge. One cannot think of a bigger disaster for Pakistan.