Justin Trudeau Is A Climate Denying Monster
By Bill Henderson
29 April, 2016
Countercurrents.org
Canada's Prime Minister Trudeau thinks that you have to build pipelines to mitigate climate change; that you need to raise revenue by producing fossil fuels to pay for a transition to a renewable energy, post-carbon economy.
Canada is the worlds fifth largest producer of fossil fuels (and hence, climate change). During the Harper years (and during high fossil fuel prices) over half of Canada's wealth generated from exports were from fossil fuels. No wonder the Trudeau governments is in new climate denial - governing without these high levels of economic activity and income is impossible in our presently configured economy. Trudeau claims he has always advocated for new pipelines to get Canadian bitumen to tidewater: “I have been crystal clear for years now on pipelines. One of the fundamental responsibilities of any Canadian prime minister – and this goes back centuries, from grain on railroads to fish and fur – is to get Canadian resources to international markets”.
But times change. Climate change becomes far worse far faster. Canada's PM pretends to leadership on the world stage: 'Canada's back', and promises that his government is really serious about climate change: backing a global target of keeping emissions well below 2C, but then uses his governmental powers to try and facilitate an even larger expansion of fossil fuel production - this is Canada's PM sliding back to join Stephen Harper as a global climate criminal: continuing to subvert needed international action on a building catastrophe.
Climate change is becoming far worse, far faster. Since Paris both the global warming symptoms and the climate change science have changed for the worse. It is not just the unbelievable and terrifying spike in temperatures (partly associated with an El Nino event) or the melting Arctic or the bleaching coral. It is not just the rapidly melting icesheets and rising sea-levels, the increasing extreme weather and the famines and societal disruption as a consequence. The race to mitigate climate change effectively is getting increasingly desperate.
Last year McGlade and Ekins published a paper detailing which present fossil fuel reserves must stay in the ground in order for human caused warming to stay under the internationally agreed precautionary ceiling of a 2C rise from pre-industrial levels. In order to have just a 50/50 chance of staying under 2C, a third of oil reserves, half of natural gas and 80% of coal must remain in the ground. Canada's oilsands where singled out: production must be reduced to negligible levels after 2020.
McGlade and Ekins based their calculations on a global carbon budget of 1,100Gt that could still be burned without producing enough CO2 greenhouse gas (GHG) to exceed 2C. Recent advances in the carbon budget science over the past year has now shrunk this budget to now much less than 1000 Gt, to somewhere closer to 600-800Gt.
The Rogelj et el paper is the main paper quantifying this lower carbon budget but the budget is shrinking because the climate science is also getting much dire. A recent paper studying clouds strongly suggests that climate sensitivity has been underestimated which would shrink the carbon budget further. A new paper on terrestrial sinks will soon be published predicting that we must factor in increasing carbon going to the atmosphere. Not only does this mean that we can put less carbon into the atmosphere to stay relatively safe from humanity threatening 'dangerous climate change', but the shrinking carbon budget also means we have far less time to reduce our emissions. Whereas Canada's emission reduction target (the old Harper government target) is 30% below 2005 levels by 2030, the updated carbon budget target is now probably closer to 100% reduction of all emissions by 2030.
We now know that even a 1C rise in temperature may engender civilization or even humanity threatening consequences such as the drowning of the world's great coastal cities this century and that a 2C rise in temperature is deep into dangerous climate change. By any reasonable analysis climate change is now an emergency because action to effectively reduce emissions must happen faster than presently possible within our present political and economic systems.
The climate change emergency is by far the most critical problem of our time and this is why ratcheting up action post-Paris is so important. But this is the time that Prime Minister Trudeau is following his mentor President Obama and doing everything within his power to expand fossil fuel production in Canada.
Now this isn't just about meeting our international commitments - Canadians not meeting our international climate commitments is sadly our history and it looks like we are continuing to play this WTO-style game. But there are real climate change consequences building. This accidental byproduct of our use of fossil fuels has now become humanity threatening because we have failed repeatedly to take effective mitigating action. For example, if we would have begun the presently advocated carbon pricing - decarbonization mitigation strategy in the late 80s, early 90s, by now we would be well into a post carbon economy and emission reduction wouldn't be such a daunting problem. But we didn't and now our mitigation strategy must be much more draconian - if we are reasonable and responsible and want to do due diligence and protect future generations, if we want a future for all we love and care about.
If the PM lead in recognizing the climate dangers and recognized that climate is now an emergency requiring deep systemic change, and Canada actually did provide leadership at this critical time by forming an emergency, wartime-style coalition government, imposed restrictions on new fossil fuel infrastructure and a regulated schedule to wind down all fossil fuel production and use in accordance with the McGlade-Ekins framework but based upon a 600-800Gt budget, Canada at least would be doing what was necessary to stay safe under 2C. Most probably countries such as Russia and the Saudis wouldn't follow suite, but the pressure upon countries like the US, Australia and China, the EU countries, etc. would be immense and it would be hard for their governments to not take effective action. Hopefully, action would spur action, innovation and adaption, new political and economic structures where reducing emissions to stay at least under 2C became practical.
It might even be possible to save this very fortunate way of life that we now enjoy: democracy, wealth and increasing complexity, reasonable safety and room to grow, a path to a future like we grew up believing possible.
Justin Trudeau isn't the only Canadian politician ludicrously pushing fossil fuel expansion. BC's Premier Clark, who's government is desperately trying to build an LNG industry to expand natural gas production for export, and remarking about the onset of a severe forest fire outbreak caused by abnormally high winter and spring temperatures, told an audience that the way to fight BC forest fires was to sell LNG to Asia in order to replace coal in power plants. Clark is an expert in post-truth politics often channeling Sarah Palin in her self serving make believe. Alberta Premier Notley, who has been desperately lobbying for that mythical pipeline to tidewater and world prices as Alberta's economic savior, is going to Washington to tell legislators there that Alberta has a new climate plan that will keep emissions the same in 2030 as they are today. (???? Good work Premier Notley.)
But Justin Trudeau stands out claiming to take climate change seriously and lead, and now he is subverting needed action globally just like previous Canadian prime ministers. When you consider what is at stake, what has to happen so that innocents in the future, our kids and their kids, aren't victim of a climate catastrophe baked in today, when you consider Mr. Trudeau's actions in contrast to his words at this critical time, and you consider the consequences, our good looking, young and dynamic PM is just as much a monster as his climate action subverting predecessor Stephen Harper.
Bill Henderson is a frequent contributor to Countercurrents on Climate Change . He can be reached at
bill (at) pacificfringe.net