Peak-Oil Awareness And
The Larger CommunityBy Peter Goodchild
08 September, 2007
Countercurrents.orgIf the imminence of oil depletion is regarded as a given, the next question is that of preparation and survival. Commonly the issue of survival is dealt with in terms of the small group: the family or the ad-hoc band (complete with camo gear and pump-action shotguns?). The feeling, apparently, is that the larger community would be useless, or even hostile, toward the more-prepared group. Yet others hope to deal with the issue in terms of a broader geographic base, perhaps even national or global. To what extent would such a large-scale approach be practical? Is it possible to deal with peak oil on a broad demographic scale?
The obstacles would certainly be considerable. The steps would include convincing the majority of citizens (1) that oil-depletion is real (hence countering the persistent propaganda of the oil industry itself), (2) that there are no simple and painless solutions in terms of "alternative energy," (3) that there will be an increasingly severe imbalance between population and resources (including food and other most-essential ones), and (4) that only the most strenuous emergency program (equal to that of nuclear-war preparation) will allow any hope of a decent life.
All of this will go against the grain of "human nature" — or at least human habit. The population would have to consider that five thousand years of civilization may have all been in vain. It would have to realize that "progress," an idol of humanity since the eighteenth century, is a false one. It would have to consider the fact that happiness, exuberance, and abundance are not interchangeable concepts. It would have to accept the fact that white-collar skills are of little consequence, and that most of daily life must be shifted to a pre-industrial paradigm. It will be necessary for each person to understand that the television set will be permanently unplugged. Is such a geographically large-scale operation possible? Or will the sheer inertia be insuperable?
I am reminded of a terrible automobile accident to which I was a witness. Several cars were involved. One driver, a young woman, left her vehicle and sat with her children under a tree on a well-mown lawn. A photograph of that scene would have looked idyllic, yet the reality was not so. The woman simply sat, staring into the distance, through the long, long minutes, as I and other witnesses did what we could while waiting for the emergency vehicles to arrive. I spoke to her several times, but she barely replied, although she seemed to have no physical injuries. She was, of course, in shock. To deal with the situation, she had taken her mind to a nicer place. She certainly had no desire to converse with rescuers. Is this the kind of response that one might expect in a severe fuel crisis? Both the crisis and the response would be far more prolonged than those of a car accident, but the symptoms of apathy or catatonia might be similar.
Is it possible to deal with shock on such a broad scale? Even if so, there would be other major questions to answer. Would it be possible to ensure fair treatment for all — male and female, young and old, rich and poor? There would also be regional differences to consider, in particular that of population density: rural areas might have one person per square kilometer, whereas a city might have several thousand; would scarce resources be even scarcer with high density, or would there be some advantages to the shorter distances needing to be covered? (How could one even begin to explain that it would take a thousand square meters of arable land to supply the grain and vegetables for one person, and that food would have to be hauled by horse and wagon?) Nor is it even certain that cities will suddenly become obsolete; over the course of history there is no strict correlation between the existence of cities and that of a certain level of technology, and it may be that the presence of cities is largely correlated with that of superior political (more precisely, military) power. On a more immediate level: Who exactly would be supplying the "soup and blankets" for the survivors? And who would explain that although "the authorities" will never arrive on the scene, over the course of thousands of years they might form part of an astonishing mythology?
Peter Goodchild is the author of Survival Skills of the North American Indians (Chicago Review Press). He can be reached at [email protected].
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