Ozone Layer
Could Develop
Hole Over Britain
By Geoffrey Lean
06 March 2005
The
Independent
Scientists
will tomorrow fly a spy plane high into the world's protective ozone
layer, amid increasing fears that it may be about to develop a hole
over Britain and northern Europe.
The old Russian
Cold War plane will take off from near Munich in a EU-funded mission
to check reports that the stratosphere over the northern hemisphere
faces rapid ozone destruction over the next few weeks. If the hole developed,
people living under it would be at increased risk of skin cancer and
cataracts, the main cause of blindness.
The danger - which
will also be assessed by scientists meeting in Zurich this week - has
been provoked by the coldest winter on record about 12 miles above the
Arctic, setting up ideal conditions for the destruction of the ozone
layer. It is linked with global warming - as the atmosphere nearer the
Earth warms, the stratosphere cools.
The ozone layer
- a scattering of the blue-tinged gas through the 21-mile deep stratosphere
which is so thin that if collected together it would form a girdle round
the Earth no thicker than the sole of a shoe - screens out harmful ultraviolet
radiation from the sun.
Without it, no terrestrial
life would be possible. But, as it is weakened from being attacked by
CFCs and other ozone-destroying pollutants, more radiation gets though
to cause skin cancer and cataracts, damage crops and kill the plankton
that are the basis of marine life.
For over 20 years,
a hole as big as the US and as high as Mount Everest has opened up over
Antarctica every southern spring. But, since the continent is almost
entirely uninhabited, the hole has posed little danger to human health
- though skin cancer rates in southern Chile, the only populated area
under the hole, are three times as high as elsewhere.
For just as long,
scientists have feared that a similar hole would open up over the Arctic,
with serious implications for human health since it would be over densely
populated areas in Britain, northern Europe, North America and Russia.
So far, it has not formed largely because the Arctic does not get as
cold as the Antarctic. But this year temperatures have been lower than
at any time since records began and there are more special "polar
stratospheric clouds" - essential to the process of ozone depletion
- than at any time since pollution began threatening the ozone.
The EU says: "The
concern is that the Arctic appears to be moving into Antarctic-like
conditions, which will result in an increase in ultraviolet radiation
levels that will have consequences on human health in northern hemisphere
countries."
Dr Neil Harris of
the European Ozone Research Co-ordinating Unit in Cambridge says ozone
levels in the Arctic are 40 per cent lower than normal for this time
of year. But scientists are divided on the likelihood of a hole developing.
The crunch will come in the next few weeks, when sunlight - which plays
a key role in destruction - returns after the dark Arctic winter.
If the hole does
form, the risk to people will depend on weather conditions and other
local factors, Dr Harris says. For example, clouds will shield people
from radiation, while sunny days will expose them to it. But, even at
its worst, the depletion is likely to be only half as severe as over
Antarctica.
While the intensely
cold "vortex" that forms the hole stays in the same place
in Antarctica, in the northern hemisphere it wanders about. At the moment,
it is over northern Europe, including Britain.