Disastrous Weather
Will continue
By Geoffrey Lean
12 September 2004
The Independent
Disastrous weather is set to continue
for at least another six months, it was officially announced yesterday,
as Hurricane Ivan headed for the Cayman Islands and Cuba after leaving
at least eight people dead in Jamaica.
The US government
confirmed that a new El Niño is about to strike, bringing torrential
rain and droughts around the world. Meanwhile, Ivan developed winds
of 155mph. Jamaica escaped a direct hit, but still suffered extensive
damage. So far, at least 34 people have lost their lives, mostly in
Grenada.
Over the next two
days both Tony Blair and Michael Howard - in an unprecedented double
act - will make major speeches describing climate change as one of the
greatest threats facing civilisation. They will set out programmes for
combating global warming, and call for the rapid development of clean,
renewable sources of energy.
Niños usually
kill more people worldwide even than bad hurricane years, and the announcement
by the US government's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(Noaa) presages more natural and human disasters stretching at least
into the early months of next year.
"El Niño
conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are expected to
last through early 2005," said Jim Laver, director of the Noaa's
Climate Prediction Centre.
During an El Niño,
warm water flows eastwards across the Pacific, bringing heavy rain to
the US West Coast and most of Central and South America. By contrast
Australia, Indonesia and parts of north-east and southern Africa usually
suffer drought. Europe is relatively unaffected.
The last big El
Niño in 1997-98 cost hundreds of lives and caused $34bn (£19bn)
in damage worldwide, partly through flooding to Chile, Ecuador and Bolivia
and partly through failing harvests in Australia, the Philippines and
Indonesia. A more recent, milder one in 2002-03 caused the worst Australian
drought in a century.
So far, the new
one looks more like 2002-03 than 1997-98 but climatologists stress that
all are different. The oceanic phenomena, like hurricanes, are growing
more frequent. Research suggests that they are occurring nearly three
times as often as 300 years ago, and some scientists believe that there
is a link with global warming. Tomorrow Michael Howard will call on
Tony Blair to use his relationship with President Bush to persuade him
to join the international effort to control the climate change. He will
say: "No one can opt out of the fight against global warming. This
means persuading the Americans to join the battle. Their involvement
is essential for effective action."
In a surprise move
- since his party has been sceptical about building wind turbines in
the countryside - he will commit the Conservatives to a rapid expansion
of renewable energy. He particularly supports solar, wave and tidal
power, growing energy crops and building windmills offshore.
He will also promise
an urgent energy-saving drive and to ban HFCs, chemicals used in fridges
that contribute powerfully to global warming.
Mr Blair - who will
speak to an audience of business- men and environmentalists on Tuesday
- last week held a rare meeting with the leaders of Friends of the Earth,
the Green Alliance, Greenpeace, The Royal Society for the Protection
of Birds and WWF-UK to seek their ideas.
He is determined
to use his forthcoming chairmanship of both the EU and the G8 group
of the world's most powerful nations to revitalise international action
and is considering pushing for agreement on a level of warming that
the planet must not be exceed.