The
Day That Changed The Climate
By Colin Brown &
Rupert Cornwell
01 November 2006
The
Independent
Climate
change has been made the world's biggest priority, with the publication
of a stark report showing that the planet faces catastrophe unless urgent
measures are taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Future generations may come
to regard the apocalyptic report by Sir Nicholas Stern, a former chief
economist at the World Bank, as the turning point in combating global
warming, or as the missed opportunity.
As well as producing a catastrophic
vision of hundreds of millions fleeing flooding and drought, Sir Nicholas
suggests that the cost of inaction could be a permanent loss of 20 per
cent of global output.
That equates to a figure
of £3.68 trillion - while to act quickly would cost the equivalent
of £184bn annually, 1 per cent of world GDP.
Across the world, environmental
groups hailed the report as the beginning of a new era on climate change,
but the White House maintained an ominous silence. However, the report
laid down a challenge to the US, and other major emerging economies
including China and India, that British ministers said cannot be ignored.
Its recommendations are based
on stabilising carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas levels in the
atmosphere at between 450 and 550 parts per million - which would still
require a cut of at least 25 per cent in global emissions, rising to
60 per cent for the wealthy nations.
It accepts that even with
a very strong expansion of renewable energy sources, fossil fuels could
still account for more than half of global energy supplies by 2050.
Presenting the findings in
London, Tony Blair said the 700-page document was the "most important
report on the future" published by his Government. Green campaigners
said that at last the world had woken up to the dangers they had been
warning about for years.
Gordon Brown, the Chancellor,
and likely next Prime Minister, assumed the task of leading the world
in persuading the sceptics in the US, China and India to accept the
need for global co-operation to avert the threat of a global catastrophe.
He has enlisted Al Gore, the former presidential candidate turned green
evangelist, to sell the message in the United States, with Sir Nicholas.
While the Bush administration
refused to be drawn on the report, US environmental groups seized on
it to demand a major change in policy. "The President needs to
stop hiding behind his opposition to the Kyoto protocol and lay a new
position on the table," said the National Environmental Trust,
in Washington. The Washington Post said in an editorial that it was
"hard to imagine" that the "intransigence" of the
administration would long survive its tenure. "Will [Mr Bush] take
a hand in developing America's response to this global problem,"
it asked, "Or will he go down as the President who fiddled while
Greenland melted?"
Sir Nicholas's report contained
little that was scientifically new. But British ministers are hoping
his hard-headed economic analysis will be enough to persuade the doubters
in the White House to curb America's profligate use of carbon energy.
In the Commons, Environment
Secretary, David Miliband, confirmed that ministers were drawing up
a Climate Change Bill, which would enshrine in law the Government's
long-term target of reducing carbon emissions by 60 per cent by 2050.
But he declined to go into any detail.
Mr Blair said the consequences
for the planet of inaction were "literally disastrous".
"This disaster is not
set to happen in some science fiction future many years ahead, but in
our lifetime," he said. "We can't wait the five years it took
to negotiate Kyoto - we simply don't have the time. We accept we have
to go further [than Kyoto]."
Sir Nicholas told BBC radio:
"Unless it's international, we will not make the reductions on
the scale which will be required."
Pia Hansen, of the European
Commission, said the report "clearly makes a case for action".
"Climate change is not
a problem Europe can afford to put into the 'too difficult' pile,"
she said. "It is not an option to wait and see, and we must act
now."
Charlie Kronick, of Greenpeace,
said the report was "the final piece in the jigsaw" in the
case for action to reduce emissions. "There are no more excuses
left, no more smokescreens to hide behind, now everybody has to back
action to slash emissions, regardless of party or ideology," he
said.
The CBI director general
Richard Lambert said a global system of emissions trading was now urgently
needed as a "nucleus" for effective action. "Provided
we act with sufficient speed, we will not have to make a choice between
averting climate change and promoting growth and investment."
© 2006 Independent News
and Media Limited
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