All
Wild Seafood Will Disappear
In 50 Years
By Steve Connor
05 November 2006
The
Independent
All
wild seafood will have disappeared from the world's menus within 50
years if current trends in overfishing continue according to one of
the most comprehensive studies of marine life.
The apocalyptic warning is
issued by a team of ecologists and economists from a dozen research
centres who have studied detailed records on fish catches going back
to 1950.
Their comprehensive study,
published today by the journal Science, found the number of commercial
fisheries that have collapsed was accelerating and that the total eradication
of all fish stocks in the world is due to be completed by 2048.
"Unless we fundamentally
change the way we manage all the oceans species together, as working
ecosystems, then this century is the last century of wild seafood,"
said Steve Palumbi of Stanford University, one of the study's authors.
The four-year research project
is the first to analyse all the existing data that has been gathered
on marine fish and other ocean species as well as the ecosystems in
which they live.
The researchers found 29
per cent of the world's fisheries had collapsed and the most vulnerable
habitats were those where overfishing had already led to the extinction
of some species, said Boris Worm of Dalhousie University in Halifax,
Nova Scotia.
"Species have been disappearing
from ocean ecosystems and this trend has recently been accelerating,"
Professor Worm said.
"Now we begin to see
some of the consequences. For example, if the long-term trend continues,
all fish and seafood species are projected to collapse within my lifetime
- by 2048," he said.
"At this point, 29 per
cent of fish and seafood species have collapsed, that is their catch
has declined by 90 per cent. It is a very clear trend and it is accelerating,"
Professor Worm said.
"We don't have to use
[computer] models to understand this trend. It is based on all the available
data," he added.
The study investigated the
historical records of 64 large marine regions, accounting for more than
80 per cent of global seafood production. Biodiversity - the richness
of marine life - emerged as the single most important factor in the
overall survival of an ecosystem.
"We found again and
again, to an extent that was almost eerie, that no matter where we looked,
biodiversity was at the heart of the issue," Professor Worm said.
"Whether we looked at
tide pools or studies over the entire world's oceans, in losing species
we lose the productivity and stability of entire ecosystems.
"I was shocked and disturbed
by how consistent these trends are - beyond anything we suspected."
The loss of fish was just
one aspect of the decline in the marine health. The study found that
the seas were becoming more prone to outbreaks of algal growths, as
well as other diseases, and less resistant to the effects of climate
change and pollution.
"The ocean is a great
recycler. It takes sewage and recycles it into nutrients, it scrubs
toxins out of the water, and it produces food and turns carbon dioxide
into food and oxygen," Professor Palumbi said.
Many millions of people rely
in the oceans not just for seafood but for other goods and services
such as flood control and waste detoxification yet this vast economic
benefit is under threat.
"This isn't predicted
to happen, this is happening now. If biodiversity continues to decline,
the marine environment will not be able to sustain our way of life,
indeed it may not be able to sustain our lives at all," said Nicola
Beaumont, an ecological economist from Plymouth Marine Laboratory, who
also took part in the study.
The scientists emphasised
there is time to turn things around.
Professor Worm said for instance
it is still possible for people to eat wild seafood providing it is
caught from sustainable fisheries by sustainable methods. He also called
for the establishment of an international approach to protecting the
oceans along the lines of the coastal waters of north-west America and
Canada which are one of the best-preserved fisheries in the world.
© 2006 Independent News
and Media Limited
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