Efficiency And Jobs
By Jason G. Brent
30 November, 2010
Countercurrents.org
Almost everyone concerned with the future of humanity and concerned about the usage of the resources the earth can provide to humanity in the future assumes that environmentalism and technology will reduce the resources used by humanity in the future. They are just plain wrong. Environmentalism and technology will not cause a reduction in resource usage. In fact, it is highly likely that every technological advance will cause an increase in the usage of resources.
Assume that instead of getting 20 miles per gallon an automobile gets 40 miles per gallon. Based on that assumption there are two possibilities---a) Drive the same number of miles and save money due to using less gas (say save $500.00 for the year): b) Since it is now cheaper to go some place due to better gas mileage, increase the miles driven to offset the increase in miles per gallon. I will not discuss a combination of the two possibilities (save some money, but less than $500.00 and drive more miles, but less than the amount necessary to offset the gas savings cost) as the combination doesn't change the analysis below.
If the car were driven twice the number of miles, the total gas usage would be the same, but the usage of other resources would be increased---the car would wear out sooner, more tires would be used, more pollutants would be put into the atmosphere, roads would wear out sooner, etc. If the same number of miles were driven and $500.00 were saved, what could the owner of the car do with the $500.00 saved? The car owner could either save the money and put it into the bank or spend the money. (Again, a combination of saving some of the money and spending some of the money doesn't change the points set forth below.) If the car owner spent the money by buying something, say a few additional shirts, that purchase would increase the usage of resources---grow more cotton or make more artificial fabric to make the shirts, build a factory to make them. buy sewing machines, use electric to run the sewing machines, transportation to transfer the shirts from the factory to the store, etc. If the car owner saved the $500.00 and put it into the bank, the bank would lend that money out. The bank could not keep that money for an extended period of time without lending it out to earn money and pay the depositor interest. The bank would lower the interest rate it charged its customers until someone borrowed that $500.00. The borrower would not borrow that money to put it under his mattress. The borrower would borrow that money to build something or expand his/her business. If the borrower used that money to build something or expand his/her business, that would expand the economy as a whole and would use more resources. The only way for resources to be saved would be for the owner of the car to flush the $500.00 saved down the toilet and the car owner is not going to do that. In simple terms and after considering all the choices, increasing the miles per gallon will not reduce the total amount of resources used by humanity and in fact will probably increase the total amount of resources used--drive some additional miles and spend some of the savings on new purchases which would expand the economy as a whole and thereby increase the usage of resources.
What I have described in the paragraph above is known as the "Jevons Paradox" (also known as the "Jevons Effect") or something very similar, the "Khazzoom-Brookes Postulate". ( Both of these items can be researched on the internet by the use of any research engine.) Increased energy efficiency tends to increase energy consumption by two means--a) Increased energy efficiency makes the use of energy relatively cheaper, thus encouraging increased use; and b) Increased energy efficiency leads to increased economic growth, which pulls up energy use for the whole economy. While in its original form the Jevons Paradox was limited to energy efficiency, the concept can be applied, as indicated above, to the increase in efficiency in any resource.
Let us now look at the addition jobs the economy of the USA and the entire world will have to provide by the year 2050. According to the best estimates the population of the USA will go from the current (2010) population of 308 to 430 million in 2050, an increase of 122 million. If we make the reasonable assumption that on average a family unit will consist of four people, there will be an increase of 30,500,000 family units. If we make the further assumption that each family unit will require, on average, 1 and 1/2 jobs, then 45,750, 000 jobs will have to be created in the USA between 2010 and 2050. The monthly average increase in jobs (40 years equals 480 months and 45,750,000 divided by 480 equals 95,312.5) which the economy of the USA will be required to produce is in excess of 95,000. Applying the same type of logic to the entire planet, the population is expected to increase by 2.4 billion from 6.8 to 9.2 billion; if we assume for the entire planet that on average a family unit will consist of five people, 480 million family units will be created during the period of 40 years from 2010 to 2050; and if we assume that only one job per family unit is required, then 480 million jobs will be necessary. This works out to one million jobs per month, on average, over the next 40 years will be required. While we can argue about the assumptions I made in this paragraph, I don't believe that anyone can dispute that the assumptions are in the "reasonable' range and the results I obtained are in the "ball park".
If either the USA or the entire world's economy cannot provide the number of jobs set forth in the previous paragraph (and they must be jobs that permit a family to survive and provide a certain standard of living), then substantial social unrest will occur. The number of jobs provided will determine the level of social unrest or if the social order is destroyed. The question becomes how many jobs can the USA and the entire world's economy provide over the next 480 months? I personally do not feel optimistic, but I leave the answer to that question to the economists. However, to date, I have not read anything written by a reputable economist that the required number of jobs can be produced nor have I read anything that the earth can provide the resources necessary for that number of new jobs. The US election of November 2, 2010 showed the social unrest unemployment can cause.
