Israel And US
Elections
By Uri Avnery
20 August, 2004
Gush Shalom
Once
upon a time, an assistant to Levy Eshkol, our late Prime Minister, rushed
up to him and cried: Levy, a disaster! A drought has set in!
Where?
the Prime Minister asked anxiously, in Texas?
No, here
in Israel! the man replied.
Then theres
nothing to worry about, Eshkol said dismissively.
Right from the
beginning, the State of Israel has been critically affected by events
in the United States. If America sneezes, Israel catches cold,
is the local version of the universal saying.
This is particularly
true in the run-up to American elections. They can be as important for
Israel as our own, since the occupant of the White House can influence
the fate of Israel in many significant ways. But they have an additional
significance: the months before the American elections are a kind of
open season for Israel.
The basic assumption
is that no candidate for the White House would dare to provoke the American
Jewish voters at election times. They are an extremely well organized
and highly motivated political bloc, ready to donate heaps of money,
which gives them political clout well beyond their numbers.
Actually, there
are now more Muslims than Jews in the United States, but they are not
organized, their motivation is weak, their willingness to donate large
amounts of money near zero. Their adherence to the Palestinian cause,
for example, cannot match the fierce loyalty of most of the Jews to
Israel. Moreover, in this the Jews are now joined by tens of millions
of Christian evangelical fundamentalists.
Israeli governments
naturally time their most controversial moves to coincide with the American
elections. The more closely fought the elections, the more attractive
it is for Israeli planners and adventurers.
The State of Israel
unilaterally declared its independence in May 1948, when Harry Trumans
reelection campaign was in a critical condition. David Ben Gurion made
the decision against the advice of some of his wisest colleagues, who
warned him that the United States would oppose the move with all its
might. He bet on the inability of the American system to do that during
an election campaign.
At the time, Truman
was desperately in need of money. Some Jewish millionaires provided
it. To show his gratitude, and against the express advice of his Secretary
of State (George Marshall) and especially his Secretary of Defense (James
Forrestal), Truman immediately accorded the new state de facto recognition.
(Stalin trumped him and recognized Israel de jure.)
Since then, this
has been a repeating pattern. The Israeli government ordered the army
to attack in 1967 (starting the Six Day War) after receiving an OK from
President Lyndon Johnson, who at the time was still hoping to be reelected
in 1968. The critical first year after that war, when America failed
to induce Israel to withdraw from the territories its army had conquered,
was, of course, an election year. Most of our present troubles stem
from that.
Only once did the
calculation fail. In 1956 Ben Gurion colluded with France and Britain
against Egypts Gamal Abd-el-Nasser. After conquering the Sinai
peninsula, Ben-Gurion declared the Third Israeli Kingdom.
He was convinced that the Americans were preoccupied with their election
and would not interfere. He was wrong.
President Dwight
D. Eisenhower, who was standing for reelection, was assured of a landslide
majority. He did not need the Jewish vote. He was also a man of principle.
So he presented Ben- Gurion with what amounted to an ultimatum: evacuate
the Sinai or else. Four days after setting up his kingdom
Ben-Gurion announced its demise. But this was an exception.
Ariel Sharon, who
considers himself a personal disciple of Ben-Gurion (as does Shimon
Peres), is basing his present policy on the same calculation. President
George W. Bush is fighting for his political life. He will not dare
to provoke a quarrel with Israel at this juncture. So from now until
November, Sharon can do much as he pleases.
President Bushs
famous Road Map is dead. (I can hear him exclaiming: Road Map?
What Road Map? The only Map I need is of the road to the White House!)
His demand for a freeze on all building activity in the settlements,
even for the natural increase, is becoming a joke. Sharon
has just openly flouted this by announcing plans for 600 new houses
in the Maaleh Adumim settlement.
Emissaries of the
Security Council and the State Department (Zionist Jews, by the way)
are practically begging Sharon on their knees to dismantle dozens of
new settlements (referred to as outposts) put up since he assumed
power in 2001. Sharon has promised this to Bush many times, in return
for reversals of long-standing US policy. Sharon must be hard put not
to laugh in their faces.
However, Sharon
does have a vital interest in Bushs reelection. He is afraid of
John Kerry, even if he says exactly the same as Bush on the Israeli-Palestinian
issue, and his grandfathers name was Cohen. Experience has shown
that there is no necessary correlation between what politicians say
before elections and what they do after them. That is the other side
of the election coin.
So Sharon may be
induced to do something anything at all that will allow
Bush to claim the credit for a historical breakthrough in
the Middle East. Perhaps who knows? a week before the
elections, three mobile homes may be dismantled on some godforsaken
hilltop in Samaria. Wow