Rice Hopes To Exploit
The Arab-Iran DivideBy Ehsan Ahrari
05 October, 2006
Asia Times OnlineUS Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is in the Middle East again to shore up Arab support against Iran. If she succeeds in achieving that objective - and that is a big if - there is likely to be a major realignment of forces in that area. This is her first trip to the region since the ceasefire of August 14 ended the 34-day war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Shi'ite militia that controls much of southern Lebanon.
She may be appealing to the legendary Arab-Iranian rivalry to sell the US agenda of shoring up the Arab opposition to Iran's alleged aspirations to develop nuclear weapons. The United States has tried to play that card before. The newest wrinkle in this ongoing strategic power game is that Israel is reportedly also reaching out to "moderate" Arab states of the Persian Gulf region by focusing on Iran-phobia.
The administration of President George W Bush is under pressure to create the semblance of "doing something" in the Middle East. That decision seems to have been reached in the wake of the recent controversies stemming from the leak of the National Intelligence Estimate about the Iraq war and in response to journalist Bob Woodward's claim in his latest book, State of Denial, of disarray among the major US national-security officials.
In the Middle East, Iraq is subsiding into a sinkhole of violence and mayhem; Iran has emerged as a major supporter of Hezbollah in the Lebanese and Iraqi conflicts, and Hezbollah's prestige is at an all-time high stemming from its performance in its war with the Jewish state. To top it all off, the US-Iran nuclear conflict does not seem to be heading toward resolution any time soon.
These developments are nightmarish from Bush's ever-growing need to leave behind some sort of legacy related to the world of Islam, two of whose governments - Afghanistan and Iraq - he dismantled in the name of fighting a "global war on terror". However, both places are emerging as major theaters of conflict between Western and Islamist forces.
Arab politics, probably more than the politics of any other parts of the globe, operate on a quid pro quo basis. So if the US wants to get something from the Arab states, it has to offer something they desire. For that reason, Secretary of State Rice is creating the impression that the Bush administration is getting ready to restart the peace process in Palestine.
However, nothing has changed in the occupied territories. Hamas is still trying to run the Palestinian government under a severe shortage of capital and, at the same time, fight a two-front war: with Israel and with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Hamas still refuses to renounce violence and recognize Israel, two preconditions insisted upon by both the US and the Jewish state. In the meantime, economic and political sufferings of the Palestinians persist.
Arab states know these facts. But they are also cognizant of the reality that Bush is desperately looking for some breakthrough in the Middle East. That breakthrough is certainly not coming from Iraq, where the threat of civil war remains high, as spirals of sectarian violence continue to ascend.
The breakthrough also is not coming from Lebanon, where despite the United States' best hopes for, and active support of, a decisive victory for Israel in its 34-day war with Hezbollah, such did not materialize. On the contrary, Hezbollah has emerged "victorious". Both the US and Israel have relearned the bitter lesson that in a conflict or "war" between two parties where one possesses too much military power and the other is weak, all that the weak side must do is survive. The inability of the strong side to eradicate the weak side is widely depicted as a "defeat."
The Bush administration finds itself in a strategic cul-de-sac from where it has to make a volte-face to avoid major erosion in its strategic interests in the Middle East. Consequently, the United States is ready to plead with the moderate Arab states - most notably Saudi Arabia and Egypt, but also with other Gulf emirates - that it was on their side all along.
Rice will not flinch at reminding the Arab side that Iran is a greater "threat" to their security than Israel, that the Bush administration is willing to revive the long-moribund Palestine-Israel peace process and that they must focus on siding with Washington about containing Iran's rising influence, which it would use to create political momentum leading toward the eventual development of nuclear weapons.
As much as the Arab states do not trust what the Bush administration says about the peace process, they also know that they have no other option than to rely on the promises of an intensely pro-Israeli US administration that it will create momentum for the renewal of a dialogue between the Palestinians and the Israelis.
Besides, Arabs have their own major gripe, if not apprehension, about Iran. The Islamic Republic has emerged as a truly major actor in the post-Saddam Hussein Middle East. It has immeasurably enhanced its strategic influence in Iraq, where it could even be regarded without much exaggeration as a kingmaker.
Iran's support for Hezbollah in the 34-day war with Israel also has tremendously boosted its prestige in the Middle East, where all other Arab leaders are viewed by the masses as too diffident - indeed, subservient - to the arrogant demands of the Bush administration to introduce Western secular democracy to the abandonment of their Islamic heritage. According to one source, three of the most popular personalities in the Arab world are Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, President Mahmud Ahmadinejad of Iran, and Osama bin Laden.
What bothered Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan most was that the United States publicly expressed its willingness to conduct a dialogue aimed at stabilizing Iraq, an Arab state, with Persian Iran. No other Arab state was invited even to observe such an event. It is not relevant that such a dialogue between the US and Iran has yet to take place.
The Arab perspective is that since September 11, 2001, the Bush administration has done little to dismantle the growing perception in the Arab world that the Sunni Arab states are being treated as vassals of the United States, a role that Iran is loath to play.
The Hezbollah-Israel war emerged as a blessing from the Arab perspective. It punctured Israel's aura of invincibility, as Hezbollah's rag-tag fighters performed impressively in that war. Now, the leaders of the Jewish state are truly shaken about Iran's growing capabilities of making the best of its military weakness, vis-a-vis Israel, in a future conflict.
After all, it was Iran's training of Hezbollah and provisions of its military wherewithal that enabled that entity to stand up to the mightiest armed forces in the Middle East. As much as the Israeli military is equipped with cutting-edge US-supplied technology, there is a growing fear within the Israeli ruling circles that in a conventional war with Iran, Tehran's yet-to-be-known asymmetric capabilities might inflict another defeat on Israel.
Consequently, the Bush administration and Israel are waging a two-front diplomatic offensive with moderate Arabs to create a united front against Iran. While Rice is making a high-profile visit to the region, Israel's diplomats are approaching the Arab sheikhdoms for a rapprochement through secret channels. Last week, there were unconfirmed reports of a meeting between Saudi and Israeli officials. The fact that both sides were so coy about it only intensified speculation about such a contact.
No one knows for sure, but the understanding is that Israelis are enticing the Gulf sheikhs with a probable concession on the Palestinian issue. That would only nullify the intense sense of shame and inadequacy within the Arab ruling circles that Iran is outshining them in Lebanon and in support of the Palestinian cause. In return for such a concession on the Palestinian issue, Israelis are reportedly asking the Arab states to create a united front against the "mounting Iranian threat".
If Israel indeed is seeking a rapprochement with the Arabs by playing on their apprehensions regarding Iran, it shows how seriously the Israelis envisage the Islamic Republic's escalating clout in the Middle East. The question remains, however, whether the Arab states will fall for the Israeli maneuver and try to gang up on Iran, or whether they will really drive a hard bargain and gain concessions on the Palestinian issue without really creating an anti-Iran front.
If Arabs know one very harsh reality about the US and Israel, they know that neither of these actors will offer any concessions to the Arab side unless they are really convinced that their bargaining position has eroded perceptibly. If that indeed is the case, then the Arabs will have to think long and hard whether they really want to fall for US-Israeli promises of breakthroughs and concessions and revive the Arab-Persian animosity, an option that might not be in their collective best interests.
Ehsan Ahrari is the CEO of Strategic Paradigms, an Alexandria, Virginia-based defense consultancy. He can be reached at [email protected] or [email protected]. His columns appear regularly in Asia Times Online. His website: www.ehsanahrari.com.
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