US President Donald Trump, Trumpist Australian PM Malcolm Turnbull and pro-oil sands Canadian PM Justin Trudeau are acutely threatening the world with unlimited greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution from unlimited fossil fuel exploitation. For the US Canada and Australia, full exploitation of presently recoverable fossil fuel reserves would generate GHG pollution vastly exceeding (37-fold) the whole world’s remaining Terminal Carbon Pollution Budget that must not be exceeded for a 75% chance of avoiding a catastrophic 2C temperature rise. This climate criminality invites urgent global action through Boycotts, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) and Green Tariffs.
Just when we thought that the dangerous, anti-science idiocy of the climate change denialists (climate skeptics) had finally been overcome by the overwhelming, circa 97% scientific consensus that global warming is happening and is man-made  , the variously ignorant and stupid American “deplorables” elected an ignorant, anti-science neoliberal extremist and climate change denialist, Donald Trump, as president of the United States.
Donald Trump has the virtue of explicitly stating what he thinks in very few words, and just prior to being elected promised: “On the first day of my term of office… I will begin taking the following seven actions to protect American workers… Fifth, I will lift the restrictions on the production of $50 trillion dollars’ worth of job-producing American energy reserves, including shale, oil, natural gas and clean coal. Sixth, lift the Obama-Clinton roadblocks and allow vital energy infrastructure projects, like the Keystone Pipeline, to move forward. Seventh, cancel billions in payments to U.N. climate change programs and use the money to fix America’s water and environmental infrastructure” .
Immediately on being elected, Trump clearly and succinctly enunciated his policy on unlimited fossil fuel exploitation and “clean coal” (2016): “On energy I will cancel job killing restrictions on the production of shale energy and clean coal, creating many millions of high-paying jobs” . (Note that “shale energy” means non-conventional gas from “fracking” of gas-rich shale deposits and non-conventional oil extracted from shale rock). Trumpist Australian PM Malcolm Turnbull and pro-oil sands, neo-Trumpist Canadian PM Justin Trudeau have made similar commitments to massive GHG pollution from unrestrained exploitation of fossil fuel reserves.
It is crucially important to attempt to quantitate the greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution consequences of the pro-fossil fuel policies of climate change denier Trump and his effective climate change denialist Australian and Canadian lackeys. A powerful way of doing this is to relate the expected gigantic Trumpist GHG pollution to the Terminal Carbon Pollution Budget of the world that must not be exceeded if we are to avoid a catastrophic plus 2 degree Centigrade (2C) temperature rise.
The 2009 Report of the German Scientific Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU, Wissenshaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderungen) entitled “Solving the climate dilemma: the budget approach” crucially stated: “The budget of CO2 emissions still available worldwide could be derived from the 2 degree C guard rail. By the middle of the 21st century a maximum of approximately 750 Gt CO2 (billion metric tons) may be released into the Earth’s atmosphere if the guard rail is to be adhered to with a probability of 67%. If we raise the probability to 75%, the cumulative emissions within this period would even have to remain below 600 Gt CO2. In any case, only a small amount of CO2 may be emitted worldwide after 2050. Thus, the era of an economy driven by fossil fuels will definitely have to come to an end within the first half of this century” .
World Bank analysts have revised annual greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution upwards by 50% to 64 billion tonnes CO2-e (CO2-equivalent, this including contributions from other greenhouse gases, notably methane, CH4) by properly accounting for methanogenic livestock and land use for animal husbandry. A key element of their analysis was to use a Global Warming Potential (GWP) of methane (CH4) relative to that of carbon dioxide (CO2) of 72 in a 20-year time frame rather than the 25 on a 100 year time frame used by the FAO . Indeed the World Bank analysis evidently still understates the GHG pollution because NASA scientists have re-evaluated the GWP of CH4 as 105 in a 20 year time frame with aerosol impacts considered . The same approach has been used to properly re-calculate annual per capita GHG pollution for all countries, and hence the best targets for global Boycotts, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) to save the planet) . One notes, however, that in scoring climate criminal countries for relative culpability, a fairer measure is annual per capita GHG pollution weighted for annual per capita income .
In the last 8 years (mid-2009- mid-2017) GHG pollution has totalled 8 years x 64 billion tonnes CO2-e per year = 512 tonnes CO2-e and thus the whole world’s Terminal Carbon Pollution Budget is down to 600 – 512 = 88 billion tonnes CO2-e as of mid-2017 i.e. the whole world has only about 1 year left before it uses up the last of its Terminal Carbon Pollution Budget for a 75% chance of avoiding a catastrophic 2 degree Centigrade temperature rise . We can now consider the Trump, Turnbull and Trudeau GHG pollution promises in detail.
According to the American Shale Oil Company (AMSO): “The oil shale resources in the United States are comparable in scope and in kind to the bituminous sands (or tar sands) found in Alberta, Canada. The deposits in Alberta contain about 85% of the world’s bitumen reserves, and it is estimated that they hold 173 billion barrels of recoverable oil” . One barrel is about 159 litres or 135 kg of oil (assuming a density of 0.85g/ml for oil) that corresponds to 118 kg carbon (assuming the oil is 87% carbon). Carbon has an atomic weight of 12 and CO2 a molecular weight of 44. Combustion of 1 kg of carbon (C) yields 44/12 = 3.67 kg CO2. Accordingly, complete combustion of one barrel of oil would yield 118 kg carbon x 3.67 kg CO2/kg carbon = 433 kg CO2 . The “173 billion barrels of recoverable oil” in the Alberta tar sands corresponds to 173 billion barrels x 0.433 tonnes CO2/ barrel of oil = 75 billion tonnes CO2 or 85% of the world’s remaining Terminal Carbon Pollution Budget of 88 billion tonnes CO2-e.
The Institute for Energy Research (IER) estimates for the US that “the total technically recoverable oil shale resource estimate [is] 2.6 trillion barrels” . On combustion this 2,600 billion barrels of oil would yield 2,600 billion barrels x 0.433 tonnes CO2/ barrel of oil = 1,126 billion tonnes CO2, this being 1,126/88 = 12.8 or about 13 times greater than the world’s present remaining Terminal Carbon Pollution Budget.
One can do similar calculations in relation to the Trump promise of unlimited exploitation of all American fossil fuel reserves. Thus the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) states that: “As of January 1, 2016, EIA estimated that the remaining U.S. recoverable coal reserves totaled over 255 billion short tons [231 billion tonnes]” . Assuming – for the purposes of getting a ball-park figure – that this recoverable coal is thermal coal (80% carbon, and generating 2.9 tonne CO2 per tonne coal on combustion), then this recoverable coal corresponds on combustion to 231 billion tonnes coal x 2.9 tonnes CO2/ tonne coal = 670 billion tonnes CO2 , this corresponding to 670/88 = 7.6 or about 8 times more than the world’s present Terminal Carbon Pollution Budget.
US recoverable gas reserves are about 324.3 trillion cubic feet (6.66 billion tonnes gas)  and combustion of 16 tonnes CH4 (methane) yields 44 tonne CO2 . Assuming for simplicity that the gas is all methane (CH4), the CO2 from combustion of these gas reserves would be 6.66 billion tonnes CH4 x 44 tonnes CO2/16 tonne CH4 = 18.3 billion tonne CO2. However CH4 is a gas, leaks and has a Global Warming Potential (GWP) 105 times that of CO2 on a 20 year time frame and with aerosol impacts considered . One can calculate that a systemic gas leakage of 2.6% would contribute as much GHG pollution as generating CO2 by burning the remaining 97.4% of the gas , and thus pollution from exploitation of US gas reserves would total 37 billion tonnes CO2-e , equivalent to 42% of the world’s present remaining Terminal Carbon Pollution Budget.
Assuming for the purposes of argument that Trump’s promise of “$50 trillion dollars’ worth of job-producing American energy reserves” is thermal coal (80% carbon, generating 2.9 tonne CO2 per tonne coal on combustion, and presently selling for $100 per tonne), then this corresponds to $50,000 billion x tonne coal/$100 = 500 billion tonne coal or about 500 billion tonne coal x 2.9 tonne CO2/tonne coal = 1,450 billion tonnes CO2 on combustion. This generated CO2 is 1,450/88 = 16.47 or over 16 times greater than the world’s present remaining Terminal Carbon Pollution Budget.
Pro-fossil fuels Trumpist Australia.
Climate criminal Australia ignores the German climate change scientists who estimated in 2009 that the world must emit no more than 600 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) before 2050 if it is to have a 75% chance of avoiding a catastrophic 2 degree Centigrade temperature rise . Australia’s annual domestic plus exported greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution is so high that it exceeded its “fair share” of this terminal GHG pollution budget by mid-2011 and since then has been stealing the entitlement of all other nations. Australia ‘s commitment to unlimited gas, coal and iron ore exports (supported by both the extreme Right governing Coalition and the Right-dominated Labor Opposition) means that it is committed to polluting the atmosphere with over 3 times the world’s total Terminal Carbon Pollution Budget as of mid-2009 (600 billion tonnes CO2-e) or 20 times the whole world’s Terminal Carbon Pollution Budget of 88 billion tonnes CO2-e as of mid-2017 .
Recent revised estimates taking land use into account indicate that Australia ‘s annual Domestic per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution (52.9 tonnes CO2-e per person per year ) is about 20 times greater than the annual per capita GHG pollution of acutely climate change-threatened Bangladesh (2.7 tonnes CO2-e per person per year). However, Australia ‘s annual Domestic plus Exported per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution (116 tonnes CO2-e per person per year ) is about 43 times greater than the annual per capita GHG pollution of acutely climate change-threatened Bangladesh (2.7 tonnes CO2-e per person per year) . Look-the-other-way, climate criminal Australia remorselessly excludes from public discussion its huge Exported GHG pollution (1511 Mt CO2-e Exported GHG pollution in 2015 as compared to 600 Mt CO2-e Domestic GHG pollution) .
Neo-Trumpist Trudeau Canada.
An assertedly progressive, politically correct and “nice” politician but actually a two-faced, climate criminal, Trump-lite, neo-Trumpist, Canadian PM Justin Trudeau has alarmed climate activists by welcoming Trump’s approval of the Keystone XL tar sands oil pipeline  and approving 2 further pipelines to carry oil from Alberta tar sands to global markets . Trudeau recently back-tracked on comments about phasing out tar sands oil , declaring that he had “misspoken” and really meant that Canada would not be using fossil fuels in 100 years’ time .
Back in 2012 Professor James Hansen commented thus on the Keystone XL pipeline: “Global warming isn’t a prediction. It is happening. That is why I was so troubled to read a recent interview with President Obama in Rolling Stone in which he said that Canada would exploit the oil in its vast tar sands reserves “regardless of what we do.” If Canada proceeds, and we do nothing, it will be game over for the climate. Canada’s tar sands, deposits of sand saturated with bitumen, contain twice the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by global oil use in our entire history. If we were to fully exploit this new oil source, and continue to burn our conventional oil, gas and coal supplies, concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere eventually would reach levels higher than in the Pliocene era, more than 2.5 million years ago, when sea level was at least 50 feet higher than it is now. That level of heat-trapping gases would assure that the disintegration of the ice sheets would accelerate out of control. Sea levels would rise and destroy coastal cities. Global temperatures would become intolerable. Twenty to 50 percent of the planet’s species would be driven to extinction. Civilization would be at risk” .
Fortunately, according to Wikipedia , only 178 billion or about 10% of the 1,700 billion barrels of oil in the Canadian tar sands is presently economically recoverable. The 178 billion barrels of recoverable oil in the Alberta tar sands corresponds to 178 billion barrels x 0.433 tonnes CO2/ barrel of oil = 78 billion tonnes CO2 or about 89% of the whole world’s remaining Terminal Carbon Pollution Budget of 88 billion tonnes CO2-e as of 2017. Game over for the climate.
However where there’s a will there’s a way, as well illustrated by the present Gadarene Canadian exploitation of tar sands oil. If neoliberal greed ensures that all the Canadian tars sands oil is exploited then the GHG pollution (ignoring that from purifying the oil) would be 1,700 billion barrels x 0.433 tonnes CO2/ barrel of oil = 736 billion tonnes CO2 or 736/88 = 8.4 or over 8 times more than the whole world’s remaining Terminal Carbon Pollution Budget of 88 billion tonnes CO2-e as of 2017. Game well and truly over.
Final comments and conclusions.
Trump’s commitment to unlimited fossil fuel exploitation means a commitment to GHG pollution over 16 times greater than the world’s present remaining Terminal Carbon Pollution Budget (88 billion tonnes CO2-e) that must not be exceeded of we are to have a 75% chance of avoiding a catastrophic 2C temperature rise. Climate criminal Australian PM Malcolm Turnbull, with the support of the Labor Party Opposition, is resolutely committed to unlimited fossil fuel and related exports that would see Australia exceed by 20-fold the whole world’s remaining Terminal Carbon Pollution Budget. Trudeau Canada’s commitment to exploitation of its huge oil sands deposits will use up 89% of the whole world’s remaining Terminal Carbon Pollution Budget. Indeed if the enterprising Canadians found a way of economically exploiting all the tar sands oil then this would generate GHG pollution over 8 times greater than the whole world’s remaining Terminal Carbon Pollution Budget.
The greed and exceptionalism of climate criminal Trump America, Trumpist Australia and neo-Trumpist Canada is further evidenced by revised annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution (in tonnes per person per year) of 52.9 for Australia ( 116 if including its huge GHG-generating exports), 50.1 for Canada, and 41.0 for the United States as compared to an average of 8.9 for the world, 7.4 for China, 2.7 for Bangladesh, 2.6 for Egypt, 2.5 for Pakistan and 2.1 for India .
The 2015 Paris Climate Conference goal of ideally no more than 1.5C will be exceeded in 4-10 years and it is now too late to avoid a catastrophic 2 degree Centigrade temperature rise [22-25]. Thus, for example, in 2017 UK scholar Dr Andrew Simms (co-director of the New Weather Institute, author of “Cancel the Apocalypse” and a research fellow on rapid transition at the University of Sussex) asked a number of leading climate scientists and analysts for their views on whether we could avoid a 2C temperature rise: “In short, not a single one of the scientists polled thought the 2C target likely to be met. Bill McGuire, professor emeritus of geophysical and climate hazards at University College London, is most emphatic. “My personal view,” he says, “is that there is not a cat in hell’s chance” .
Global CO2 pollution is increasing at a record rate of 3 ppm CO2 per year and atmospheric CO2 is at a record level of about 406 ppm CO2 . The evident failure to tackle climate change is contributing to a worsening climate genocide in which 10 billion people may perish this century if global warming is not requisitely addressed . Already 7.5 million people die each year from air pollution (7 million) or climate change (0.5 million). . However the latter figure may be an under-estimate because 17 million people presently die avoidably each year from deprivation in Developing Countries that already disproportionately impacted by climate change . Saleemul Huq (director of the International Centre for Climate Change and Development in Bangladesh) (2017): “The consequences of failing to keep the temperature below 1.5C will be to wilfully condemn hundreds of millions of the poorest citizens of Earth to certain deaths from the severe impacts of climate change” .
Professor Michael E. Mann (Distinguished Professor of Meteorology at Pennsylvania State University) has stated (2014): “If we are to limit global warming to below two degrees C forever … we would have to limit CO2 to below roughly 405 ppm… To avoid breaching the 405-ppm threshold [already breached in 2016], fossil-fuel burning would essentially have to cease immediately” .
Yet the anti-science, anti-Humanity, neoliberal and effective climate change denialist Trumpist leaderships of the US, Australia and Canada are wilfully committed to unlimited fossil fuel exploitation and huge, terracidal GHG pollution. Indeed US President Trump and Australian PM Turnbull have decorated their climate criminality with the false, moronic and oxymoronic assertion of “clean coal” [3, 31] – yet “clean coal” is akin to “consensual rape”. The deadly, immoral and unlimited GHG pollution by the US, Australia and Canada invites urgent global retaliation through Boycotts, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) and Green Tariffs.
. “The 97% consensus on global warming”, Skeptical Science, 2008: https://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-scientific-consensus-intermediate.htm .
. Donald Trump, “Donald Trump presents 100-day plan to make America great again – for everyone”, 22 October 2016: https://www.donaldjtrump.com/press-releases/donald-j.-trump-delivers-groundbreaking-contract-for-the-american-vote1 .
. Donald Trump, “A message from president-elect Donald J. Trump”, greatagain.gov, 22 November 2016: https://greatagain.gov/a-message-from-president-elect-donald-j-trump-572cd7f51dde .
. WBGU, “Solving the climate dilemma: the budget approach”, 2009: http://www.wbgu.de/fileadmin/templates/dateien/veroeffentlichungen/sondergutachten/sn2009/wbgu_sn2009_en.pdf .
. Robert Goodland and Jeff Anfang. “Livestock and climate change. What if the key actors in climate change are … cows, pigs and chickens?”, World Watch, November/December 2009: http://www.worldwatch.org/files/pdf/Livestock%20and%20Climate%20Change.pdf .
. Drew T. Shindell , Greg Faluvegi, Dorothy M. Koch , Gavin A. Schmidt , Nadine Unger and Susanne E. Bauer , “Improved Attribution of Climate Forcing to Emissions”, Science, 30 October 2009: Vol. 326 no. 5953 pp. 716-718: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/326/5953/716 .
. Gideon Polya, “Revised Annual Per Capita Greenhouse Gas Pollution For All Countries – What Is Your Country Doing?”, Countercurrents, 6 January, 2016: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya060116.htm .
. Gideon Polya, “Exposing And Thence Punishing Worst Polluter Nations Via Weighted Annual Per Capita Greenhouse Gas Pollution Scores”, Countercurrents, 19 March, 2016: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya190316.htm .
. American Shale Oil Company (AMSO), “The case of Canada and the Alberta tar sands”, 2017: http://amso.net/strategic-significance-of-oil-shale/the-case-of-canada/ .
. Egidius Kuhlmann, “How much CO2 produced by burning one barrel of oil”, Pyrolysium, 11 February 2012: http://pyrolysium.org/how-much-co2-produced-by-burning-one-barrel-of-oil/ .
. Institute for Energy Research (IER), “Oil shale”: http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/topics/encyclopedia/oil-shale/ .
. US Energy Information Administration (EIA), “U.S. coal reserves”, 4 November 2016: https://www.eia.gov/coal/reserves/ .
. US Energy Information Administration (EIA), “Natural gas”, 14 December 2016: https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/crudeoilreserves/ .
. “Gas is not clean energy”: https://sites.google.com/site/gasisnotcleanenergy/home .
. Gideon Polya, “Australia ‘s Huge Coal, Gas & Iron Ore Exports Threaten Planet”, Countercurrents, 15 May 2012: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya150512.htm .
. “2011 climate change course”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/2011-climate-change-course (see Section G).
 John Paul Tasker, “Trudeau welcomes Trump’s Keystone XL decision”, CBC News, 24 January 2017: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-cabinet-keystone-xl-1.3949754 .
. Maria Gallucci, “Justin Trudeau greenlights controversial tar sands pipelines”, Mashable, 30 November 2016: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/trudeau-says-he-misspoke-about-phasing-out-oil-sands/article33748712/ .
. Bill Curry, “Trudeau says he “misspoke” about phasing out oil sands”, The Globe and Mail, 24 January 2017: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/trudeau-says-he-misspoke-about-phasing-out-oil-sands/article33748712/ .
. James Hansen, “Game over for the climate”, New York Times, 9 May 2012: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/10/opinion/game-over-for-the-climate.html .
. “Athabasca oil sands”, Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athabasca_oil_sands .
. “Are we doomed?”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/are-we-doomed .
. “Methane Bomb Threat”: https://sites.google.com/site/methanebombthreat/.
. “Nuclear weapons ban , end poverty & reverse climate change”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/nuclear-weapons-ban .
. “Too late to avoid global warming catastrophe”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/too-late-to-avoid-global-warming .
. Andrew Simms, “”A cat in hell’s chance” – why we’re losing the battle to keep global warming below 2C”, Guardian, 19 January 2017: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/19/cat-in-hells-chance-why-losing-battle-keep-global-warming-2c-climate-change .
. NOAA, “Trends in atmospheric CO2”: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
. “Climate Genocide”: https://sites.google.com/site/climategenocide/ .
. Gideon Polya, “Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950”, that includes a succinct history of every country and is now available for free perusal on the web: http://globalbodycount.blogspot.com/ .
. (Michael Mann, “Earth will cross the climate danger threshold by 2036”,Scientific American, 18 March 2014: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-will-cross-the-climate-danger-threshold-by-2036/ .
. Simon Benson, “Malcolm Turnbull’s plant for clean coal power”, The Australian, 1 February 2017: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/malcolm-turnbulls-plan-for-clean-coal-power/news-story/de85ddeb8bcc1c5a5216076516ae5bee .
Dr Gideon Polya taught science students at a major Australian university for 4 decades. He published some 130 works in a 5 decade scientific career, most recently a huge pharmacological reference text “Biochemical Targets of Plant Bioactive Compounds” (CRC Press/Taylor & Francis, New York & London , 2003). He has published “Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950” (G.M. Polya, Melbourne, 2007: http://globalbodycount.blogspot.com/ ); see also his contributions “Australian complicity in Iraq mass mortality” in “Lies, Deep Fries & Statistics” (edited by Robyn Williams, ABC Books, Sydney, 2007: http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/ockhamsrazor/australian-complicity-in-iraq-mass-mortality/3369002#transcript
) and “Ongoing Palestinian Genocide” in “The Plight of the Palestinians (edited by William Cook, Palgrave Macmillan, London, 2010: http://mwcnews.net/focus/analysis/4047-the-plight-of-the-palestinians.html ). He has published a revised and updated 2008 version of his 1998 book “Jane Austen and the Black Hole of British History” (see: http://janeaustenand.blogspot.com/ ) as biofuel-, globalization- and climate-driven global food price increases threaten a greater famine catastrophe than the man-made famine in British-ruled India that killed 6-7 million Indians in the “forgotten” World War 2 Bengal Famine (see recent BBC broadcast involving Dr Polya, Economics Nobel Laureate Professor Amartya Sen and others: http://www.open.edu/openlearn/history-the-arts/history/social-economic-history/listen-the-bengal-famine ; Gideon Polya: https://sites.google.com/site/drgideonpolya/home ; Gideon Polya Writing: https://sites.google.com/site/gideonpolyawriting/ ; Gideon Polya, Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gideon_Polya ) . When words fail one can say it in pictures – for images of Gideon Polya’s huge paintings for the Planet, Peace, Mother and Child see: http://sites.google.com/site/artforpeaceplanetmotherchild/ and http://www.flickr.com/photos/gideonpolya/ .