Katrina + Baghdad
= Tipping Point?
By Jeff Berg
09 September, 2005
Countercurrents.org
We
may just have witnessed the day of which we will say in ten or twenty
years, "That was the day, Aug. 31, 2005, the day America began
to visibly collapse." By collapse I'm referring to Joseph Tainter's
use of the term in 'The Collapse of Complex Societies'. i.e. Collapse
as a non-pejorative term for what occurs when a society's reach exceeds
its grasp and it is forced for whatever reason- be it environmental,
fiscal, military or political- to simplify and adapt to reduced circumstances
and hence to a society of reduced complexity.
If this intuition
turns out to be as accurate then as it feels certain now then my city
paper The Toronto Star will have done itself proud as it was perhaps
unique in North America in featuring with equal prominence on its September
1 front page the two events of August 31 that served as the tipping
point. The top half of the page dedicated to the devastation that Katrina
has wrought on New Orleans, the bottom half dedicated to a picture of
the sea of slippers left behind by those fleeing in panic from a possible
suicide bomb attack. A stampede that led to approximately 1000 dead
in Baghdad on August 31. "An hour ago the death toll was 816 killed,
but we expect it to hit 1,000,"- Dr Jaseb Latif Ali of Iraq's Health
Ministry as quoted in the Khaleej Times.
Katrina and Baghdad
worlds apart and yet every day seems to bring yet another story bringing
them together. One a 'natural' disaster whose destructive power was
aided and abetted by the follies of a free market dogma that recognizes
no natural limits and a bankrupt government that recognizes no fiscal
or moral ones. The other a man made tragedy in the middle of a religious
march where nerves stretched to the snapping point broke to lethal effect.
The first of these horrors is becoming increasingly easy to lay at the
feet of an administration that once again ignored the advice of its
own experts and rolled the dice gambling that their luck would hold
and the disaster would wait for the next guys watch to strike. This
time however they lost and they lost big or to be more precise they
lost the
Big Easy. As to who is at fault for the second calamity all that really
needs be said is that in its ten thousand year history Baghdad had never
known a single suicide bombing before America put itself in charge.
Now as a direct result of the near complete collapse of security 1000
people are dead because of the panic caused by the mere threat of one.
Pottery Barn rule indeed.
My instincts tell
me that this is a one two punch that will bury not only this administrations
imperial ambitions but will also spell the beginning of the end for
the American public's tolerance for the expense of foreign adventures.
For Katrina has finally exposed to America its shocking shortage of
resources both fiscally and in terms of manpower and how many will not
link this fact to the expensive failure in Iraq? A failure whose nadir
we can only hope was reached on the day a thousand died. And if my gut
proves prophetic then it is from this very day that we will date the
zenith of America's reach and the start of its contraction. It is from
here we will begin the chart that chronicles America's long slide from
its position as consumer of 25% of the world's energy and resources;
from its position as
the world's "lone remaining superpower"; and towards a vastly
changed geopolitical and economic reality for herself and hence the
world.
Natural disasters
have a long history of interrupting the best laid plans of mice, men
and even emperors. One of the most devastating examples of this in Western
history was the earthquake in 1755 in Portugal which led to so much
death and misery that it caused even the most devout of theists to begin
to question what their authorities were telling them about the nature
of their God, his world, and the supposed legitimacy he conferred on
those that governed. The smashing of Lisbon by quake, tsunami and fire
forced Portugal to abandon its colonial empire aspirations. Now it is
true to say
that Katrina's damage to New Orleans is not as catastrophic as the quake
was to Lisbon, nor of course is New Orleans as important to the U.S.
as was Lisbon to Portugal. Furthermore had Katrina passed through say
at the end of Clinton's term she very likely would have been a storm
the status quo
would have weathered . But coming as she does when America's balance
sheet is in such a precarious position* is sure to pique the interest
of those very influential members of the elite that concern themselves
with such mundane matters as how things get paid for. When this is added
to the
administration's culpability in weakening New Orleans defences, and
America's ability to come to the aid of its own citizens in times of
a national emergency, it is very likely to shake the faith of even the
most devout members of the BAU parties. (BAU: business as usual)
*This analysis assumes
that America is particularly vulnerable at this time because its debt-to-asset
and debt-to-GDP ratios as well as its national debt, the percentage
of its national debt that is foreign held, its budgetary deficit and
capital accounts deficit are all at their highest levels in American
history. Furthermore they are also higher than the levels experienced
by countries that have subsequently crashed such as Argentina in 2001,
Russia in 1991 and America in 1929.
In a word Katrina
is going to be expensive: in human costs, environmentally, politically,
and financially. Hugh B. Kaufman of the EPA in the Washington Post on
September 1 put it this way, "This is the worst case.... There's
not enough money in the Gross National Product of the United States
to dispose of the amount of hazardous material in this area." Andrew
Gumbel and Rupert Cornwell in the Independent on September 7 described
the problem of 'remedying' the situation this way. "Toxicologists
and public health experts warned yesterday that pumping billions of
gallons of contaminated water from the streets of New Orleans back into
the Gulf of Mexico - the only viable option if the city is ever to return
to even a semblance of its former self -would have a crippling effect
on marine and animal life, compromise the wetlands that form the first
line of resistance to future hurricanes, and carry deleterious consequences
for human health throughout the region." And as reported in Anthony
Lappe's blog on GNN there are two huge oil containment tankers leaking
oil South of New Orleans causing an oil slick that may end up dwarfing
the Exxon Valdez spill.
Compared to the
human and environmental costs the financial ones pale but are nonetheless
worth a look. Katrina managed to knock out for a week about 3.5 million
barrels per day from the U.S. oil supply, 880,000 of which will not
be on line for months, as well as ending for the foreseeable future
the
economic life of one of America's top tourist destinations. There is
also the not inconsiderable human and financial costs that will continue
for years if not decades from the severely reduced circumstances and
futures of so many of the former residents of this region. Finally,
the least talked about bit of economic devastation caused by Katrina's
passage is the damage to the navigability of the Mississippi and to
shipping to the Southern Louisiana port. The Mississippi is essential
to America's largest port,
the fifth largest port in the world. Sure there will be a boost that
will occur as a result of the rebuilding process but this is an artificial
kind of boost on the order of the kind of boost that the GDP received
as a result of the Exxon Valdez spill. Yes cleaning up must be done
and yes it does create economic activity that gets added to the overall
numbers in the same way as do upgrades to public transit or the creation
of new schools but only because our economic indicator system is so
radically flawed that it is incapable of useful distinctions. A flaw
so profound that it would for example add to the GDP the activity of
digging a hole and filling it in and digging a hole and filling it in
ad infinitum the same as it would any other economic activity as long
as the hole digger/filler was being paid by someone even if that someone
is the state. Just as one can build thousands upon thousands of nuclear
bombs and cruise missiles and spend a few hundred billion or more on
"space shields" and "rods from god" and it will
be counted as a boost to economic activity. (I would however like to
note here for the record that if one is in a position to choose between
which of these activities to fund the former is by far the more benign
and socially useful activity of the two.)
On the other hand
what neither of these activities can do is make use of investment capital
in such a way as to add to capital stock and to create infrastructure
that will act as an economic multiplier for decades to come. They are
instead money pits and once that money is spent apart from the enrichment
that it gave to those involved in the contract they have at best a miniscule
multiplier effect and at worse they leave behind mountains of extraordinarily
dangerous enablers of hubris and aggression. Even worse yet is that
these mountains can become so large that they cause politicians,
military men and 'think tanks' to get it in their minds that this mountain
really should be put to use lest the previous 'investment' come to be
seen by those that cannot be fooled all of the time as a waste of what
is after all their money.
Now from a purely
personal perspective the reason I say "even worse yet " is
because of the death and misery that the use of weapons of mass destruction
brings. I say it because I believe it a proven fact that mankind's technological
abilities have oerleaped our political ones and that all nations must
become non-aggressive if any of us are going to see many more tomorrows
or grandchildren. I say it because philosophically I am a humanist and
politically I am an internationalist. But even if one is an "America
firster" and a devout adherent to American exceptionalism even
then one should see this result as the worst possible outcome if only
for its effect on America's wealth and freedoms. Because when politicians
involve themselves in the moving of these mountains they multiply the
original
profound waste to devastating effect. In the case of America this has
become true to the point that as diverse a group of thinkers as Seymour
Melman, Paul Krugman, Chalmers Johnson, Gore Vidal, Paul Craig Roberts,
Greg Palast, and Joe Stiglitz are led by the data to state with a certainty
rare for professionals that the U.S. economy in the mid to near term
is in for an unavoidable 'correction' as significant as any it has ever
experienced.
Katrina and the
war in Iraq have already been intimately tied together by the media
and we are only in week one. With each new story a new fact is added
to the catalogue: 7,000 reservists that could have been called to the
area are instead in Iraq. Equipment that could have been used to save
American lives is instead in Iraq. The man made protection for New Orleans
was weakened when the Bush administration cut $71.2 million (over 50%)
from the budget of the protectors of the levees, the New Orleans branch
of the U.S. Corps of Army Engineers. Mother Nature's protection on the
other hand was eliminated when the federal regulations that were in
place to protect the wetlands that serve as storm protection for New
Orleans were rolled back to benefit developers and 'free' enterprise.
In a just world these developers would now be forced to pay damages
and assist with reconstruction. Still the degree to which any of this
had a direct impact on exacerbating the scope of the disaster is not
what will do the most damage to this and future administrations. What
will do the most damage to them is the reason behind these budget cuts.
This administration did not cut levee spending because they hoped to
see New Orleans turned into the worlds largest toxic bayou. The reason
that this crucial budget was being cut in a year when the hurricane
season started earlier and more violently than almost any other on record
and only one year after the clearest possible scientific warning about
the disaster facing New Orleans is because America's financial resources
are no longer sufficient to all the tasks she has set herself. And while
Iraq may only be the straw that broke the camel's back to bring a Mesopotamian
metaphor home it is what America's people are going to "fix their
intelligence around" as a way to begin solving their problems at
home. The people of Iraq will be only too happy to concur with this
program and help usher the American Army home. It is this confluence
that I see us viewing in retrospect as the 'perfect storm' of factors
that precipitated the surge that swamped the system as it is currently
constituted in the U.S.
On the Baghdad side
of the equation the enormous tragedy of the 1000 dead will very likely
lead to an escalation of the cycle of violence that now seems as unbreakable
as the one that consumed Lebanon and Ireland for decades. This will
make the U.S. position there as completely untenable as the IDF's was
in Lebanon or the British Army's was in Ireland or more appositely the
Soviet Army's was in Afghanistan. To date the U.S. have been able to
create the 'right' conditions for a Negroponte inspired and directed
Salvadorian style solution to Iraq's desperate bid for post-Saddam independence.
But just as the oil wealth of Venezuela has allowed Chavez the manoeuvring
room necessary to escape from the iron grip of neo-liberal corporatism
so too will Iraq's oil wealth allow it the kind of geopolitical and
economic heft necessary to wresting itself from the iron lung that Iraq's
sovereignty has been put into by Bremer's legalese and Negroponte's
mayhem. Another thing that this tragedy will do is ensure that the loyalty
of the Iraqi forces to their U.S. commanders is never more than a sham
of convenience, one that they will turn on at the earliest opportunity.
Something that the leaders of Iraq are sure to take notice of and follow
in order to gain the necessary supporters/fighters/security personnel
needed to rule or even participate in the political process as it is
currently constituted. Iraqi power brokers know all too well that only
those who control a militia will be given a seat once battle fatigue
finally sets in and the bargaining table is finally wheeled out. This
dynamic being perhaps the only bottom up democratic principle at work
today in this tragically fractured and toxically irradiated country.
So remember my friends
you heard it here first. August 31, 2005, was the day when the bell
that tolls eventually for each and every one of us began tolling for
America's use of force abroad and the day that New Orleans showed America
the problem with her soul.