Ukraine Erupts
In Great Power Rivalries
By Peter Schwarz
25 November 2004
World
Socialist Website
A
struggle for power has broken out between the two candidates, acting
head of the government Viktor Yanukovich and opposition leader Viktor
Yushchenko, following the Ukrainian presidential elections last Sunday.
The official electoral committee pronounced Yanukovich to be the winner,
but the opposition has refused to recognize the result. It maintains
that the election results were falsified and Yushchenko was the legitimate
winner.
On Monday, Yushchenko
allowed himself to be sworn in as president by the delegates of the
opposition in the Kiev parliament. At the same time, crowds of up to
200,000 have demonstrated in the city centre of Kiev since Monday, with
many camping out on the streets. They are seeking to secure Yushchenkos
recognition as president with a campaign of civil disobedience. Their
models are the so-called Rose Revolution which one year
ago led to the ousting of Shevardnadze in Georgia and the events that
toppled Milosevic in Serbia.
In the Western media,
this struggle for power is portrayed as a conflict between the forces
of dictatorship and democracy, between an autocratic regime and a democratic
opposition. But a closer examination presents a very different picture.
Both Yushchenko and Yanukovich have their roots in the new elite which
divided the wealth of the country after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Differences between the two camps are of recent origin.
From 1993 to 1999,
Yushchenko was head of the Ukrainian central bank, and from 1999 to
April 2001, he was prime ministerserving in both posts under President
Leonid Kuchma, who is now considered to be the power behind Yanukovich.
As head of the central bank and prime minister, Yushchenko was one of
the most important architects of a policy of economic liberalisation
and privatisation, which has had devastating social effects. With an
average monthly income of 65 euros, the Ukraine has one of the poorest
populations in Europe, while an infinitesimal layer of nouveau riche
has accumulated enormous wealth.
The conflict within
the new elite revolves around the question of how best to defend its
privileged statusin a close alliance with Russia, or by a further
opening up to Western capitalist interests.
President Kuchma,
who came to power in1994 and must now step down, carried out a careful
balancing act. On the one hand, he strived to establish close cooperation
with the European Union and the US. He made several agreements with
the European Union aimed, so far unsuccessfully, at gaining admission
to NATO, and even sent 1,500 soldiers to support the US occupation in
Iraq. On the other hand, he maintained close relations with Russia and
its president, Vladimir Putin.
It is no longer
possible to maintain this posture. The Ukraine has suddenly become the
focal point of intense rivalries between Russia, on the one side, and
the US and the European Union, on the other. Both sides intervened in
a massive fashion in the election campaign and supported without scruple
their respective favouritesRussia backing Yanukovich and the Western
powers supporting Yushchenko. Both sides are pursuing their own economic
and geo-political interests.
Given the alliance
between a number of Eastern Europe countries and NATO, and the establishment
of American military bases in former Soviet republics in Central Asia,
Putin is determined to prevent the Ukraine falling into the Western
sphere of influence. For some time he has been pursuing a policy aimed
at more closely binding the former Soviet republics economically and
politically to Russia.
For the US and the
European Unionin particular, Germanythe Ukraine, with its
nearly 50 million inhabitants and strategic location, is a potentially
lucrative market and a critical transportation route for oil and gas.
Approximately 80 per cent of Russian natural gas supplies to Western
Europe flow through the Ukraine.
The German financial
newspaper Handelsblatt summed up German interests, writing on November
23: [T]he Ukraine is much too important as a transportation route
for sources of energy, both Russian oil and gas and the reserves in
the Caspian Sea, to allow the country to become the play thing of the
Kremlin.
The vehemence with
which the interests of Russia and the Western powers collide in the
Ukraine recalls the darkest days of the Cold War. It shows the how strained
and explosive relations between the great powers have become.
Just three weeks
ago, Russian President Putin was the first to congratulate Bush on his
re-election. Now, Washington and Moscow confront one another as irreconcilable
opponents over the issue of the future Ukrainian president. If the conflict
is not resolved soon, differences threaten to escalate further. As was
the case in the first half of the 20th century, the fight for influence,
markets and raw materials threatens once again to lead to armed conflicts
between the great powers.
In the Ukrainian
election campaign, Putin backed Yanukovich, whose base lies in the coal
and steel region of the Donetsk Basin and the city of Dnepropetrovsk.
The Donetsk heavy industry magnate Rinat Achmetov is considered his
most important backer. The oligarchs in heavy industry fear Western
competition and rely on support from Russia. In addition, the east of
Ukraine has a large Russian-speaking population. Yanukovich speaks Russian
as his native language.
The Western press
made a great fuss about Putins interference in the Ukrainian election
campaign. He briefly visited Kiev on two occasions before the election.
This, however, is not so extraordinary, given the fact that prior to
1991, Russia and Ukraine had for centuries been part of a common country,
and a large proportion of the population is Russian-speaking.
On the other hand,
the substantial interference by Western governments and institutions
in favour of Yushchenko was portrayed as completely normal, and justified
as facilitating a further opening up to the West (i.e.,
opening up to Western capitalist interests), and a continuation
of the reform process (i.e., free market liberalisation
of the economy).
Yushchenkos
strongholds are situated in western Ukraine, which has long been a centre
of Ukrainian nationalism and oriented strongly towards Europe. His standpoint
corresponds to that of the new dominant layer in Poland, Hungary and
other Eastern European countries, which see their future as junior partners
of the Western great powers.
Yushchenko was supported
in his propaganda and finances by outside advisors. European and American
politicians continually praised him, describing him as an exemplary
democrat. As soon as the polls closed, they raised accusations of electoral
fraud.
US Senator Richard
Lugar, who spent time in Kiev as an election observer, spoke of a concentrated
and energetic program of fraud and abuse on election day. The
foreign policy speaker of the German Social Democratic Party (SPD),
Gert Weißkirchen, declared Yushchenko to be the winner. He demanded
international reprisals should the ruling powers in the Ukraine refuse
to reverse themselves and recognize the election of the opposition candidate.
The governments
in Washington and Berlin have demanded an examination of the election
result and threatened sanctions. Together with his American colleague
Colin Powell, the German foreign affairs minister, Joschka Fischer,
demanded a recount of the vote under the control of the Organization
for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
It is quite possible,
and even probable, that substantial fraud occurred in the Ukrainian
election. Certainly the hand-picked candidate of Kuchma and Putin, both
of whom rule on the basis of authoritarian methods and preside over
corrupt regimes, is entirely capable of such tactics. And among the
anti-Yanukovich demonstrators are many people genuinely motivated by
democratic concerns.
But the democratic
posturing of the US and Europe is entirely hypocritical. When pro-Western
regimes defend their power with autocratic methods, as is the case with
many states in Central Asia, Washington, Berlin and the other European
capitals look the other way. In Iraq they are preparing the democratic
election of a puppet regime by waging a brutal war against the civilian
population.
The Ukrainian population
has become a plaything in the struggle for power between Yanukovich
and Yushchenko, and the great powers pulling the strings in the background.
Nevertheless, there are real social concerns and fears that animated
the voters.
Not all of those
who voted for the government candidate did so because of manipulation
by the official Ukrainian media, despite the claims of the opposition.
Workers in heavy industry have justified fears of losing their jobs
if the Ukraine continues to open up to the European Union, as occurred
in Poland and other Eastern European countries. In addition, the Russian-speaking
minority fears discrimination should Ukrainian nationalism prevail.
In this respect, the Baltic states are horrific examples of what could
go wrong.
Amongst the supporters
of Yushchenko, on the other hand, there are young people and students
who are honestly shocked over attacks on free speech and political expression.
They find themselves, however, in the very dubious company of priests
and nationalists, whose tradition, to put it mildly, does not embody
democratic convictions. Anti-Semitism was common in nationalist circles
in Ukraine for a long time, and assisted the Nazis in the recruitment
of accomplices during the German occupation of the country.
So far, the power
struggle in Ukraine has remained largely peaceful. The situation is,
however, extremely tense. Violence by the government camp against the
demonstrators cannot be ruled out. If the conflict escalates, the country
confronts the danger of a civil war, with results similar to the catastrophes
that have engulfed the Balkans over the past decade.
In both cases, the
responsibility rests, in the first instance, with US and European imperialism,
which seek to manipulate and exploit internal tensions within these
countries for their own predatory ends. For his part, Putin acts in
the interests of an aspiring national bourgeois elite in Russia with
its own imperial ambitions.