Will Syria Reply
Via Lebanon?
By Nicholas Blanford
Christian Science
Monitor
07 October, 2003
The
Lebanese-Israeli border, the traditional venue for Syria to settle scores
with its arch enemy, was bracing yesterday for a possible flare-up of
violence after Israeli jets bombed a Palestinian camp in Syria.
"The aggression
against Syria is considered a defiance of international conventions
and law and is a dangerous escalation," Syrian Foreign Minister
Farouq al-Sharaa said in a statement. He called for the UN Security
Council to meet to "deter the Israeli government from taking more
provocative action."
The airstrike,
the first by Israel against targets this deep into Syria since the October
1973 Arab-Israeli war, signals an escalation in the long-simmering conflict
between the two countries.
Mohammed Shukri,
a professor of international law at Damascus University, says the air
raid was an "act of war."
"I hope my
government will exercise some kind of restraint; otherwise it might
lead to a conflict between us and them," he says in a telephone
interview from Damascus. "And that would not be good for anyone."
But Professor Shukri
adds: "If they continue this policy of unjustified aggression,
Israel will have to face the consequences. Syria is not in a mood of
aggression but it will not sit quietly."
Syria said the Ein
Saheb Camp is home to Palestinian refugees and not a facility to train
Islamic Jihad militants, as claimed by Israel. Security sources in Damascus
said that the long-established camp is run by the Popular Front for
the Liberation of Palestine and although it is used by other groups,
there were no Islamic Jihad members present at the time of the raid.
In recent months,
the United States has intensified pressure on Syria to cease its support
for radical Palestinian groups, such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Although
the Damascus offices of the Palestinian groups have closed, US officials
believe they are still active in Syria. "Hamas can exist independently
of Syrian support, but Islamic Jihad is wholly dependent on Syrian backing,"
says a Western security source. "Islamic Jihad couldn't function
without Damascus as a base. Hizbullah trains their fighters and they
receive funds from Iran."
Timur Goksel, a
university lecturer in Beirut who served 24 years with a United Nations
peacekeeping force in south Lebanon, argues that Israel is running out
of options in trying to thwart Palestinian suicide bombers.
"Israel has
tried everything else from closures, assassinations, house demolitions.
Now they are hoping the Syrians will pressure the Palestinian groups."
He adds: "I
doubt that Syria is running a proxy war against Israel through the Palestinians.
But the Syrians are a point of pressure against the Palestinians. The
attack is a way of getting the Syrians to do what the Israelis cannot
do themselves."
Many analysts say
that, for Syria, withdrawing support for groups like Islamic Jihad and
Lebanon's Hizbullah organization is a red line it will not cross. But
its retaliatory options, beyond diplomatic measures, are limited. That
leaves analysts divided on whether Syria retaliate with force.
"I don't think
Syria will react militarily," says Nizar Hamzeh, professor of politics
at the American University of Beirut. "But if the Israelis repeat
the attack, I think Syria will send a message along the Lebanon-Israel
border using one of its proxy forces, Hizbullah or another group."
But Michael Young,
a Lebanese political analyst, argues that Syria has no choice but to
respond militarily.
"The political
cost to Syria would be high if they didn't retaliate," Mr. Young
says. "I don't think the Syrians can really afford not to react."
Although the Israelis
and Syrians clashed in Lebanon during the 1982 Israeli invasion, the
bulk of fighting between the two countries has been through Lebanese
and Palestinian proxies. Lebanese Hizbullah guerrillas fought an 18-year
war of resistance against Israeli troops occupying south Lebanon, a
conflict that was encouraged and supported by Syria. Damascus sees Hizbullah
as a useful means of pressuring Israel into making concessions on the
future of the Golan Heights, the strategic plateau captured by Israeli
forces in 1967.