The Nawaz Sharif Disqualification Case And Its Impact On The National Political Environment
By Mehroz Siraj Sadruddin
10 March, 2009
Countercurrents.org
It goes beyond any doubts, to say that the recent verdict of the Supreme Court barring the Sharif brothers from contesting for political office, could have serious negative repercussions for the political environment in Pakistan.
A plethora of evidence is coming out clearly suggesting that who are the people who manipulated the judiciary into pronouncing the verdict.
However, what I seek to analyse overhere is the political impact of this decision which the Supreme Court had pronounced previously.
Key analysts in Pakistan and abroad have pointed out to the fact that any attempt to isolate the Sharif brothers would further widen Pakistan’s political vaccuum and therefore the religious and the extremist parties would stand to gain most advantage from a seemingly worthless political tussle that is currently ensuing between two of the country’s largest political parties.
In case of such an eventuality, Pakistan’s commitment in the War against Terror, its ability to resist military adventurism from its larger eastern neighbour would be hurt hard and the condition of the economy may further worsen.
The authorities who had manipulated the judiciary’s verdict against the Sharif brothers had probably not heard what Nawaz Sharif has been saying since his return in late 2007, that any major decision pronounced by judges who had taken oath on Musharraf’s unconstitutional PCO would not augur well with the population, especially in Punjab.
What needs to be understood is that only when the dust and the feeling of extracting personal vendetta, settles down, the real consequences of this flawed verdict shall cast its truly colours on Pakistan’s political future.
In case the standoff between the Sharifs and the PPP management worsens, it would only lead to the strengthening of anti-state forces within our national borders, some of whom the Army fought in Swat.
If the political vacuum in the country widens, then religious parties and extemist elements such as the MMA, would re-enter the political spectrum, thus denting Pakistan’s campaign against terrorism. Here it shall be recalled that it was only because of a manually created political vacuum (by excluding the then senior leaderships of the PPP and the PML-N), that the MMA came out of the 2002 elections as the largest opposition party in the federal parliament whilst it also formed the government in NWFP and Balochistan.
If such a thing happens this time round, then Pakistan would find itself in more deeper hot waters than before as such an outcome would not be tolerated by Western countries, or India.
This verdict against the PML-N can also be seen in a broader light as part of the government’s long drawn covert campaign to silence dissent by using the official state machinery against the moderate elements of the society, such as human rights activists, the media and politicians.
In a press conference on March 4, Nawaz Sharif revealed that in order to get a favourable verdict from the Hameed Dogar Supreme Court, he was asked by Mr Dogar and President Zardari to except indemnity for Musharraf and to drop his support for the case of Farah Hameed Dogar, CJ Dogar’s daughter who got her marks increased in intermediate examinations through influential contacts in the Inter-Board Chairman’s Committee.
This statement suggests that to what extent has the judiciary become corrupt and incessantly involved with the institutions on whom it shall be acting as a watch dog.
However, such a major campaign to silence moderatism and dissent is bound to have a disastrous impact on the nation and its institutions as a whole.
If political tensions in Pakistan rise as a result of this covert but seemingly all-out campaign, Pakistan’s ability to firmly resist diplomatic and military adventurism by India would also receive a serious set back. In the case of a leadership vaccuum, India might start to exert more diplomatic pressure on a weak and fledging civilian diplomatic setup in the country on the one hand, and on the other, the army may move in to the political spectrum in order to avoid total chaos across the country.
In both cases, Pakistan is bound to suffer in the long run. It must be firmly understood that as Pakistan is smaller in size and resources and considered less trustworthy by the Western world, our already limited diplomatic resources would become furhter exhausted and handcuffed if the political standoff between the nations two largest parties goes on for a long time to come.
Another military takeover in Pakistan too would have its own set of negative repercussions. On the local front, another military takeover may only lead to further damage to institutions such as the parliament and the judiciary.
Internationally, Pakistan may once again become an isolated state like it was in 1999, when General Musharraf had taken over just a few months after the Kargil conflict.
In case the army is forced to take over the reigns of governance and leadership owing to inept, corrupt and inefficient civilian governance, the world may happen to overlook these financial and political irregularities and may accuse the army of showing double standards in its commitment to fight extremism in the tribal areas. Questions would be asked about Pakistan’s nuclear security and our inability to answer back may put our nation in a perilous state.
In case of any of these eventualities, India would stand to gain the most, as it would further seek to exert greater diplomatic pressure on Pakistan to close in the ranks with terrorists, whom it accuses of masterminding terror attacks in India.
Unravelling evidence since the March 3 attack on Sri Lankan cricketers in Lahore is giving clear indications of external involvements into the incident. Because of the political tussle between the PPP and PML-N, the Punjab’s now dismissed government and authoritarian governor Salman Taseer failed to heed repeated warnings from the now removed IG Punjab, Mr Shaukat Javed that a terror threat was imminent during the duration of the Lahore test.
It is now an established fact that as the ongoing standoff with the PML-N has consumed most of the government’s time and resources, imminent warnings and threats of terrorist activities, including the Mariott Hotel bombing of September 20, had gone unnoticed. The government’s neglect and casual ways of dealing with major issues has invited a lot of criticism at home and abroad.
The case against the Sharif brothers should not have been opened up in the first place as proceedings against them were being seen as discriminatory and unfair in the first place because Mr Zardari had been given a clean chit through the NRO.
It may be recalled that just a few days before Asif Zardari assumed the presidency, the Sindh High Court under CJ Afzal Soomro had cleared him in a series of long lasting cases of murder and corruption, including that of Mir Murtaza Bhutto, the estranged brother of former PM, Benazir Bhutto.
The current political setup in the country has undoubtedly been unfair towards the Sharif brethren for a variety of known reasons. However, political reconciliation between President Zardari and the brothers is necessary. Without this reconciliation, Pakistan cannot put its own house in order.
It shall be clearly understood that the War on Terror cannot be won in the absence of an autonomous judiciary and a strong and unitied political and military leadership in the country.
The writer is a freelance journalist and a student at RMIT University, Melbourne. [email protected]
