By Andrew McKillop
10 April, 2006
we are looking for an energy philosophy that might help us in troubled
times we can try out the multiple and disputed meanings of entropy.
Warning : This has been tried before by many persons from many different
angles. Some even jumped the gun, long ago, by disputing exactly how
to state the Entropy Law, as it is called, while others rightly argued
it is is fact a principle. Finally it was settled and set down, but
never to the agreement of all players. Those players were 19th Century,
mostly European scientists of all types - engineers, mechanical scientists,
astronomers, mathematicians and even politicians, like Sadi Carnot.
Later on, all kinds of philosophers, historians, writers, journalists
and more politicians joined the party. As a consequence nobody today
knows exactly what the Entropy Law (or principle) really means, but
it seems to have a dark side and could imply that chaos rules, OK.
For starters entropy only
concerns macromolecular arrangement of matter ; it doesnt concern subatomic
stuff like quantum mechanics, cosmic ray showers and the tunnel effect
in silicon diodes – without which your home PC wouldnt work, or
would need a 3-floor building and an aircon system to cool down the
millions of radio valves it depended on. Entropy probably doesnt concern
the expansion of the Universe, or how the Universe likely formed, then
spread out across well er uh…the Universe. Entropy maybe doesnt
apply to some biological processes, notably photosynthesis, or at least
how some photosynthetic pigments work in plants. Entropy possibly doesnt
concern or have much leverage on large scale, multispecies ecosystems.
And so on.
The only thing we need to
know about entropy is that it is only zero at zero absolute temperature,
when all molecular, and therefore macromolecular activity and movement
stops. No movement, no entropy. Any kind of movement, mixing, friction,
vibration, chemical change, magnetic change and of course any rise in
temperature will increase entropy, that is decrease order. When we move
up to large assemblies of living things, themselves large assemblies
of large molecules, this Fatal Flaw is very evident. So evident in fact
that it is real likely that ways to counter entropy are hard-wired,
or genetically and behaviorally imprinted into socially organized living
things. Thanks to so-called free will, and lots of fossil fuels we can
pretend we chose to ignore this.
Forget the selfish gene heating
up anxious voters by telling them you have to take big losses in I-raq
now, for him to only suffer small election losses later on. This isnt
how real living systems, that is the 99%+ of the biosphere that is not
human, counters entropy after a few billion years of hands on experience.
These serious and seasoned players take small losses now to avoid big
– or fatal - losses later on. This is the entropy principle for
and in living systems.
Stoicians Said It Better
This started from around
300 BC so it is old stuff, despite it being the longest continuous school
of Ancient Greek, and Roman philosophy, lasting about 550 years. Firstly,
the first Stoicians said, there is no free will, and exactly like the
entropy principle says, there is no free ride. When you are finished
and you die, you go somewhere else where you might or could do better
: feeding honest worms, for example. We, the Stoicians said, dont know
and wont know, ever. Coming closer to what the 19th C entropy scientists
found out, the Stoicians, just like the much maligned Epircureans, explained
that everything, simply everything is mixed and melded together. So
everything is complicated and bad news travels fast. Just like a virus
or a prion, entropy communicates itself all over a system in a magic-seeming
way : Black Magic that is, if you thought you could squeeze every last
bit of chemical energy in your car fuel and change it all to moving
your car down the highway. We have to look higher by looking down on
the system, rather than up. When we do that, we can forget the paranoia
because entropy is there to help us, in a complicated, strange or funny
Ludwig von Bertlanffy, the
inventor of Systems Theory, which concerns mechanical, electrical, and
even electronic, solar and atomic systems, and in theory (because it
is a theory) living systems too, explained why he would not and could
not accept or believe in ‘classic’ Darwinist evolution and
its so-called ‘survival of the fittest’ doctrine, by focusing
examples of so-irrational seeming, and evidently non-competitive behavior
in living systems. One example he gave was the behavior of Comaccio
eels in the Atlantic. Rather than stay home in their European and North
American rivers and estuaries they make vast ocean voyages across one-third
of the planet to mate and reproduce. During this Odyssee they die like
flies, or Comaccio eels, from hunger, predation, exhaustion. Huge numbers
never even meet and reproduce ; even bigger numbers die straight after
mating and reproducing, along with some of their offspring.
As Bertalanffy openly admitted,
Comaccio eels or the rather well-known Scandinavian lemming do not appear
to know anything about Systems Theory, or entropy. Systems Theory predicates
constant adaptation – by inanimate systems – to the entropy
constraint. When or if there is falling energy supply, or an increase
in local disorder the rest of the system changes to handle and equilibrate
this perturbation, reduce the growth of entropy, and then tries to bring
itself back to the previous ‘equilibrium’ state or level.
This happens for example with solar systems. After a while, perhaps
only a few hundred million years after the spinning gas cloud and its
central sun have got on the road to cooking up a new solar system and
formed a first set of planet-like entities, the system can and will
expulse any intruder would-be planets, for example big asteroids that
try to crash their way into the party. In our solar system Pluto probably
got that treatment : there were already enough planets and newcomers
werent needed. Comaccio eels and lemmings seem to take no notice of
that conservationist approach and seem to engage in a joyful suicide
party, but in fact they do the same thing as the baby solar system,
despite their method seeming bizarrely wasteful.
Living systems like eels
or lemmings, or human beings, are not primarily and only interested
in cutting the growth of entropy, if we only measure how efficiently
they use energy in one generation, and if we choose to argue that for
non-human living things food supply = energy, and minimum entropy =
maximised population numbers. Comaccio eels, and perhaps us too have
higher goals. In the case of Comaccio eels exactly the right numbers
get back to their home rivers and estuaries. After the ocean suicide
party they will live right, without too much dispute and stress over
food resources, that is energy, with their neighboring fish and amphibians.
The net result is they dont have to compete, because an awful long time
ago it was decided that, for example, fish do not compete with frogs
and birds do not compete with snakes, whatever Darwin might have said
or imagined in print. In other words they dont ‘compete’
with birds, or trees, or humans in pleasure boats, as Darwinism claims
they should : they took advance action, in their own way. Their losses
seemed big to us, but not to them.
So we could say, to be somewhat
provocative, that America is doing the world a favor through consuming
26% of the world’s oil production for 4.5% of its population,
at a per capita barrel count of 25-per-year. By every classic economic
development model or theory you like, China and India could or should
try to get up to the same insane level of profligacy and non-sustainability.
Both of them have atomic weapons, and China has thermonuclear weapons,
so no « ray-jeem change » will be happening in their direction.
The problem is the simple fact that it is physically impossible to produce
that much oil so we dont have to worry about the far-out climate change
implications of this unhappy state ever coming about. Try the numbers
There is however a big difference
between Comaccio eels and lemmings on one hand, and Americans on the
other. The first two run on 100% renewable energy, and the second on
depleting fossil energy. This means that if you want joyful mass suicide,
do it with renewable energy in a sustainable way. Later on, biologists
and systems analysts can study your behavior and conclude it is totally
irrational, even suicidal but some of you will still be there and can
say : « So what ? ».
Yet another lesson of entropy
‘law’ is the age-old principle of Moderation. This cant
be dated, but it is really old stuff, perhaps from about 3000 BC and
the Apollon cult, so hysterically put down by Judaic, Christian and
Islamic philosophers. The Stoicians and Epicureans, and the Cynics also
believed in moderation with a big « M ». The best way to
understand this principle is to ask how an average-intelligence parrot
or squirrel, or whale or any non-human living thing would reply to the
question : « Should we maximise our dependence on a depleting
resource of fossil energy, and irrevocably change the world’s
climate for hundreds, or thousands of years ahead by simply burning
it ? ». They would politely decline any thought of a thing so
stupid, yet Nobel prizewinning economists tell us it is the best and
only thing to do ! You note the logic fault : if it is the only thing
to do there is no need to ask if it is the best. To find out what is
best you need choices. We badly need choices.
Back in the times when human
societies were 100% renewable energy based, and slaves were energy slaves,
Socrates in about 425 BC set out how a serious and efficient ruling
class should operate. Firstly, good rulers only work in the interests
of their people, and the energy slaves of the people. How would these
good rulers avoid those kickbacks, under-the-table deals, or a Chevron
supertanker named ‘Bimboleeza Rice’ in their honor ? This
was simple ! If the ideal rulers Socrates talked about accepted the
fruit of the low-hanging trees, if they accepted any gift of any kind,
they would be executed. If their lifestyle was anything other than moderate
and exemplary, they would be demoted to slaves themselves, or executed.
Socrates had worked himself him up into one of his frequent moralizing
tantrums, but Epictete the freed slave and Stoician, in 150 BC, put
it better. He said send them somewhere else, far away, where they could
or might do better than here, in this world where they cant behave right.
Could the White House be relocated and transferred behind the Green
Line in Bagdad City, to ensure national energy security as well as total
victory in the Global War on Terra ? On this Earth, that is. As Shakespeare
said, that is the question.
Neither Socrates or Epictete
were impressed by democracy – to them democracy and demagogy were
two sides of the same coin, although this ignores what could be written
on the side of the coin, on its thickness, where all kinds of neat messages
or symbols can be added, to better fool the faithful. Today, as we know,
the USA is trying to increase its exports and reduce the trade gap by
exporting democracy to the Middle East, with a peace dividend or war
booty in the shape of ‘enhanced oil exports’ by New Iraq.
That was the story we heard, circa 2003. In fact democracy-theocracy
is such a failure in Iraq it doesnt even improve Iraq’s oil export
performace ! Very likely the same result would accrue to exporting democracy
to Saudi Arabia, perhaps explaining why nobody bothers to try it.
The answer is moderation.
The USA could cut per capita oil consumption by 50%, to European levels
of consumption « almost overnight » as they say. The Europeans
could cut their oil intensity per capita by 50%. Everybody could get
into the act, throughout the fossil-fuelled world, although people in
poor countries using 1 barrel per capita a year could make the reasonable
suggestion : « You do it first, brother ». The cult of moderation,
as we said, goes back an awful long time before any so-called ‘Religion
of the Book’, but the Apollon cult started out with an orgiastic,
bisexual, serial killer god who became, as it were, tired and bored
with excess. He took a year’s sabbatical as a sheep herd, and
came back moderate. We can all do this, with the oil orgy, for one reason
because Peak Oil says we have no other choice, even if what are laughingly
called great leaders of the Free World (aka the International Community)
tell us that the nicest and most natural thing is to launch another
Oil War, against Iran. Moderate countries moderate their war urge by
moderating their oil appetite, and find other things to do like educate
their people and provide medical services to everyone.
Small is Beautiful
Fritz Schumacher, who invented
this slogan, also claimed that every philosophy that was ever invented
has at least one grain or speck of truth in it, somewhere. He obviously
forgot about the New Economy doctrine and its ‘philosophy’
which cutely says we have no choice in the No Future, but we will excuse
Schumacher for his oversight. His slogan has plenty of sense for a restructured,
re-engineered and reorganized post-fossil energy future, if we want
a sustainable economy and society. Firstly, the entropy potential of
big systems is necessarily bigger than of small systems, measured any
way you like. This includes the total number of real idiots, which increases
with and despite the increasing number of would-be Einsteins in ever
larger population groups. The number of possible errors also increases,
that is there are more errors ‘available’ to the bigger
system. Like different nations and languages and cultures, all menaced
by Globalization, nature’s way of cutting down on ‘available’
errors is to have radically different phylums and species. As we said
before, fish and birds or reptiles and amphibians find it hard to compete
and mess up each others lives because they are so radically different.
Temperature itself is a measure
of entropy, so low temperature processes are more efficient than high
temperature processes. This offers a golden rule for a simple thing
like home heating : you only use hydro or wind electricity for heating
if you cant find some other non-electric heating process, and you never
ever use thermal generated electricity for space heating. The catch
is that around the world and on average 70%-100% of national electric
power systems are thermal based and world electricity demand is growing
at about 7%-per-year.
Temperature is movement of
molecules and transportation is the biggest single user of oil. The
number of processing and transportation stages to produce and deliver
any consumer good or intermediate product used in manufacturing is at
flat-out maximum in the globalized New Economy. Some people are proud
of their kid’s soft toys or game consoles, or their dog’s
collar being shipped from Guangdong with bits and pieces made in Europe,
India and Japan, but this only happens because energy is still cheap,
dead cheap. This will not last, so get ready by becoming more self-reliant
in soft toys.
The lowest energy transportation
is water transport, helping explain why around 80% of the world’s
population lives within 80 kilometres of the sea. In cities, water transport
will be coming back, aided by fast-increasing world sea levels. We can
have see-through, easily checked for security water tube delivery and
transportation systems carrying all kinds of payloads and packets, snaking
their way around restructured, low-energy cities. Those cycle rickshaw
taxi drivers of NYC can turn the pedals of Venice-style gondolas and
show tourists the sustainable city’s acquaculture and mariculture
zones, the former tower blocks converted to massive multistorey greenhouses.
Water, water, everywhere. Mexico City, before being regime changed by
the Spanish invaders, was a floating city with 4-storey constructions
built on rafts of living vegetation and had about 50 000 population,
a nice population target for restructured, low-energy metropoles.
Naturally the wiseacres will
announce ‘You cant get there from here’. The answer is that
big systems break down and collapse or implode really fast, like a house
of cards, and it is best to be outside the fallout zone when that happens.
Small is beautiful when small breaks down because the hole left in the
web is small and likely repairable. In fact anything repairable is good
and this now has a smart name : de-manufacture and recycling. The Indian
computer industry, we can note, has a huge and widespread base of computer
hardware de-manufacture and recycling. Anybody who wants a business
plan for de-manufacture and recycling ventures only has to ask me.
Downsizing is Beautiful
The bottom line is to downsize
when you can, which is better than doing it when you must. All kinds
of persons are doing it despite the official propaganda of Big is Boomer.
Take world demography and world population forecasts. All demographers,
including those with the nicest jobs, are now on a moderating, post-orgy
track in their forecasts for 2040 or 2050. Since the early 1990s their
forecast numbers are down, down and down. Back in 1990 any respectable
demographer felt obliged to say the world’s population in 2050
would or could be 15 Billion. By the late 1990s the demographers had
downsized to forecasts of 12 Billion. Now the ‘consensus forecast’
is not much above 9 Billion. The difference is around 6 Billion which
is close to the world total population of today ! In Europe, some former
Baby Boomers like Italy and Spain are on a track of a 50% reduction
from current population by 2055. This is not die-off but demographic
downsizing – maybe in anticipation of Peak Oil and Peak Gas by
some feedback loop we dont know, or simply through fading economic growth,
mass unemployment, unliveable cities, and No Future.
With the right planning and
organization the 1974 world population of 4 Billion could have been
close to the ultimate maximum but nobody in power, anywhere, wanted
that. The simple reason is this : what is called economic growth is
basically population growth. Take a 1950-2005 population curve for any
big country with a big economy and then superpose it national stock
market index movement for 1950-2005 on the population curve. The fit
is nearly perfect.
Downsizing the oil and energy
appetite of the economy will be easier with the demographic pump beginning
to flag, but this also brings up the energy coefficient of economic
growth. What we find is that so-called dematerialization, and decoupling
of the economy from energy stopped dead about 1998. Oil prices started
their upward track to we-know-not-where in 1999. So we can have flagging
demographic growth but increasing energy intensity of the world economy.
One figure explains this : world population growth is down to a ‘tiny’
80 to 85 Million new human recruits to the world population each year.
World production of new cars is about 80 Million-per-year. For each
new baby a new car is born, if not exactly in the same places ! The
only thing we can be sure of is that both of these numbers will fall.
Behind this, economic growth numbes will also shrink.
We can get there from here,
but we have to seriously clarify what « there » means. At
present nobody in power wants to talk about it, or about Peak Oil. These
are no-no subjects. Lets talk about « ray-jeem change »
and whats on E-Bay this week. That way we can crunch along a few more
days, one more day. When the merde hits the fan our great leaders, including
the lady who de-named her supertanker, will be out to lunch and unavailable,
meaning we have to do things individually, firstly in small groups,
now rather than later, with our own motivation and our own appreciation
of what to do.
Things were always like this.
The mirage of the democratic and organized super-state is a myth and
a trap for a host of reasons. Entropy growth messes up the content of
public messages in big states and systems, whether they have the label
‘democratic’ or not. Organized religion plays a still-big
if declining role in the farce, and as any check of world news will
tell you, organized religion has a way of teaming with the organized
state, to ensure bigger chaos.
We are large assemblies of
macromolecules so we ignore entropy at our peril, just like the Comaccio
eels, the difference being that they know it and we dont. Waking up
to basic facts of nature and existence should be a part of the education
process, but the state and religion got there first and filled the schoolbooks
with cranky logic and half-baked slogans. Change has to come and will
come, Peak Oil means we are going somewhere else where we could or might
do better. Be sure of it !