Arroyo Clings
To Philippines Presidency Amid Growing
Economic Crisis
By John Roberts
02 September 2005
World
Socialist Web
After
months of political turmoil, Philippines President Gloria Macapagal
Arroyo has staved off efforts to impeach her but remains deeply unpopular
and faces a continuing opposition campaign to have her removed from
office.
Arroyos supporters
yesterday used their numbers in the House of Representatives Justice
Committee to quash three impeachment complaints. Citing the rule that
only one impeachment can be brought against an official a year, the
committee first voted to formally accept the weakest of the three complaints,
then immediately dismissed it as insufficient in substance.
Only one of Arroyos
opponents was present after opposition legislators stormed out of the
committee in protest on Tuesday. Those calling for Arroyos removal
on charges of election rigging, corruption and political repression
consist of a motley alliance of right-wing politicians aligned with
ousted president Joseph Estrada, together with various Stalinist and
leftist parties.
Opposition politicians
vowed to fight on but with little prospect that the impeachment will
proceed. To override the justice committee decision, the opposition
requires 79 votes, or a third of the 236-member House of Representatives,
to refer the complaint to the Senate for hearing. As of yesterday, the
impeachment lobby had only 73 votes. Pro-Arroyo House Speaker Jose de
Venecia told the media this week: For all intents and purposes,
its dead. They simply dont have the numbers.
Leftist legislator
Teodoro Casino bewailed the vote and called for a protest campaign.
This is the saddest day perhaps in Congress, he declared.
This is so brazen. The people have no other choice but to take
to the streets because that is the only place we can resolve all the
questions raised there.
Opposition demonstrations
have, however, largely fizzled out. As the justice committee was voting,
several hundred anti-Arroyo protesters gathered outside the Congress
building and clashed with police. Two demonstrators were injured.
There is no shortage
of public hostility to Arroyo. Opinion polls have consistently shown
that the majority of the population wants her to resign. Recent polling
has shown that more than 80 percent of respondents want the president
impeached.
The opposition has
been sparked by revelations that Arroyo may have urged electoral officials
to rig last years presidential election and claims that her family
members may have taken bribes from operators of the countrys pervasive
illegal jeuteng lottery. But underlying the discontent are concerns
about rising fuel prices, job losses and declining living standards.
The failure of Casino
and other lefts to mobilise any significant public support
is in large measure because they are thoroughly compromised. In 2001,
the Stalinist Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) and other left
parties backed the so-called Peoples Power campaign supported by sections
of the military, business and the Catholic hierarchy to oust Estrada
and install Arroyo, claiming she would help working people. Today the
lefts are in alliance with the right-wing backers of Estrada
seeking to remove Arroyo.
The lack of any
credible opposition has enabled Arroyo to hang on, for the time being
at least. Six weeks ago, 10 key cabinet ministers and officials, including
Arroyos entire economic team, walked out of the cabinet. Since
then, Arroyo has been able to cling onto office by securing the tacit
support of the politically influential Roman Catholic hierarchy, senior
military officers and sections of big business.
Arroyo, who has
been a strident advocate of the Bush administrations global
war on terrorism, also received some support from Washington.
On August 3, as he left for a new posting, senior US diplomat Joseph
Mussomeli publicly opposed mass protests to topple Arroyo.
Twice is enough,
Mussomeli declared, referring to the US-backed Peoples Power
movements that brought down the Marcos dictatorship in 1986 and Estrada
in 2001. He praised Arroyo as assertive and straight forward
and brilliant and tenacious and declared that he was confident
she would survive.
Economic crisis
The president may
have weathered the immediate political storm, but none of the underlying
issues have been resolved. Arroyo, a Harvard-trained economist, has
made fiscal reform and debt reduction the centrepiece of her administrations
program. Foreign debt has tripled over the past eight years to $US70
billion and currently stands at 101 percent of Gross Domestic Product
(GDP). Debt servicing consumes 40 percent of government revenue.
Debt repayments
have been funded in part by new issues of government bonds but the money
markets are concerned that this cannot continue indefinitely. Desmond
Soon of the Singapore-based Pacific Assets Management told the International
Herald Tribune on August 18 that the debt figure is alarmingly
high. In this kind of situation, some political figure could
come along and argue for a debt moratorium or some kind of debt rescheduling,
he said.
Arroyo has pushed
through changes to the countrys Valued Added Tax (VAT) that would
boost government revenues. The tax is to be extended to cover essentials
such as petrol and electricity and may be extended from 10 percent to
12 percent, at the discretion of the president. In a country where tax
evasion by the rich is rife, increased VAT will impose hefty new burdens
on the working class and the urban and rural poor.
Following a legal
challenge to the VAT legislation, the countrys Supreme Court placed
a temporary injunction on its implementation. The courts final
ruling is due shortly. If the increased tax is imposed, it will only
add to the mounting resentment and discontent, particularly over high
petrol and fuel prices. Already 40 percent of the population struggle
to get by on less than $US2 a day.
At the same time,
the financial crisis confronting the Arroyo administration is being
compounded by the continuing rise of global oil prices. Current government
budget estimates were based on an oil price of $US35 a barrel but that
figure has now doubled. In 2004, the countrys oil import bill
was $US4.57 billion. Each $10 per barrel increase adds $1.26 billion.
On August 17, the
Department of Energy outlined plans to re-introduce presidential powers
not used since the days of the Marcos dictatorship, including the rationing
and administrative allocation of fuel supplies. Arroyos Executive
Secretary Eduardo Ermita said the president regarded the oil crisis
as a threat to national security as it can lead to a situation
in which the people could be agitated and lay the blame on the leadership.
These comments underscore
the deep fears in the Filipino ruling elite that the widespread popular
discontent has the potential to erupt in explosive forms. What is being
prepared in response is the assumption of autocratic presidential powers
and outright repression.