Hamas Prepares
For Post-Arafat Era
By Khalid Amayreh
05 November 2004
Aljazeera
The ailing Palestinian leader, though
disliked by many Palestinians for a variety of reasons, still enjoys
widespread respect among the wider public, including the powerful Islamist
camp.
Earlier this week, Hamas' politburo chief Khalid Mishaal sent a telegram
to Arafat at his hospital bed, wishing him well and assuring him that
the group would never compromise Palestinian national unity.
However, despite the pleasantries - sincere though they may be - Hamas
is already preparing for the post-Arafat era.
This stems from a conviction that the Palestinian leader, even if he
recovers fully from his serious illness, will not be the same again
and that his ability, especially mental capacity, to lead effectively
would have been irreversibly impaired.
Second, Hamas realises, as, indeed, does the rest of the Palestinian
political class, that the political diminution of Arafat and certainly
his death would signal the end of an era and the beginning of a new
one whose features and borders are difficult to determine now.
The uncertainty
surrounding the post-Arafat era is thus forcing the movement to think
in a more proactive manner and not leave anything to chance.
That is why the movement has called for the formulation of a collective
Palestinian national leadership that would lead the Palestinian struggle
in the absence of its enduring symbol.
A logical justification
for the proposed leadership is the prevention of chaos and lawlessness
and possibly a destructive power struggle, especially within the ranks
of the heterogeneous Fatah movement.
Fatah's various
components have always been kept together by Arafat, often through a
combination of financial appeasement and a policy of divide-and-rule.
Ismail Haniya is one of Hamas' most respected leaders in Gaza, owing
to his straightforward style and long association with the movement's
late founder and spiritual leader Shaikh Ahmad Yasin.
He believes that
a collective leadership in the interim period, between Arafat's death
or infirmity, should they occur, and the organisation of general elections,
is more than an option - it is a national imperative.
"We will not
allow any chaos or disunity to occur and the best way to realise this
goal is by formulating a united national leadership that would lead
the Palestinian people to the safety shore and prepare for elections
in which all Palestinians would participate," he says.
Haniya expresses apprehension that Israel might try to "fish in
troubled waters" by interfering or even intervening in the process
to choose a successor to Arafat.
"We are aware
that the Zionists will be trying to instigate trouble and chaos, but
will not allow them to achieve their goals, neither at the struggle
level nor at the political level."
It is difficult though, to expect the old guard within Fatah, people
such as former and current prime ministers Mahmud Abbas and Ahmad Quraya
and the heads of the various security agencies, to digest, at least
right now, the concept of a collective national leadership.
The reasons for that are both personal and political.
At the partisan
and personal levels, most veteran Fatah leaders are unlikely to be willing
to sacrifice the long-standing prominence and pre-eminence of their
movement just to demonstrate goodwill towards the Islamists, their ultimate
political and ideological rivals.
Perhaps more importantly,
many Fatah leaders have accumulated personal wealth of varied sizes
and should be worried that a truly effective nationalist-Islamist leadership
would eventually ask them "where and how did you amass this wealth?"
Politically, according Hamas a significant role in managing the "national
burden" is likely to tread hard on the sensitive nerves of Fatah
moderates - especially the "Oslo veterans".
The more mainstream
leaders of Fatah also realise that including Hamas in a collective leadership
would almost automatically lead to a definite radicalisation of the
overall Palestinian position vis-a-vis the peace process and Israel.
"I think Hamas
is a mature political movement, it has learned the lessons of the past.
I am not worried a bit about Hamas playing a negative or destabilising
factor in the Palestinian struggle"
Atif Udwan, Islamic
University of Gaza political science professor
This may complicate things for the Palestinians and give Israel ammunition
for blaming the lack of progress in the peace process on the "Hamas-Fatah"
leadership.
Hamas understands very well the various variables governing the Palestinian
political arena, including the powerful external factors influencing
Palestinian political thinking and behaviour.
Hence, the movement is unlikely to risk appearing as a "problematic
factor" in formulating and shaping the post-Arafat political discourse.
"I think Hamas is a mature political movement, it has learned the
lessons of the past. I am not worried a bit about Hamas playing a negative
or destabilising factor in the Palestinian struggle," says Atif
Udwan, political science professor at the Islamic University of Gaza.
An expert on Hamas, he tells Aljazeera.net that the movement has been
steadily moving towards moderation.
"Hamas is now steadily becoming a mainstream movement. Nobody,
even the Americans and the Israelis, can exclude Hamas from any future
political equation."
One Hamas official in the Hebron region tells Aljazeera.net that Hamas
would act more responsibly and more wisely after Arafat.
"We will be more flexible in accommodating other views and we shall
not allow any ideological rigidity to impede progress towards national
unity," says the Islamist leader who, for security reasons, demanded
anonymity.
He points out that Hamas will not seek, even if it could, to replace
Fatah.
"We read very carefully the international map, we will not allow
Hamas' own considerations, however legitimate and attractive, to override
our people's interests."
The Islamist leader says Hamas would prefer to be in a position to "influence"
a future Palestinian leadership than assume the leadership itself.
None the less, Hamas is likely to find itself in a generally better
position once Arafat is no longer around.
Some of Hamas' most ardent opponents, such as Arafat advisers Muhammad
Rashid, Tayib Abd al-Rahim, Hakam Balaawi, Musa Arafat, and Ghazi Jabali,
will be greatly weakened by Arafat's absence or impairment.
This will allow Hamas to move further towards the Palestinian political
mainstream and also present its views more audaciously than ever before.