A
Re-Run Of The Lebanon War
In Palestine?
By Hasan Abu Nimah
& Ali Abunimah
12 October 2006
The
Electronic Intifada
There are ominous signs that
the long-contemplated plan to overthrow the democratically-elected Hamas-led
Palestinian Authority cabinet is about to enter its most dangerous phase:
a political coup, supported by local militias, with foreign and regional
backing. This could ignite serious intra-Palestinian violence. With
Iraq providing a dreadful warning of how foreign occupation can foster
civil bloodshed, everything must be done to expose and thwart this dangerous
conspiracy.
The head of Palestinian Authority
intelligence, and Fatah militia leader, Tawfiq Tirawi, said in an interview
with the Sunday Times on 8 October, "We are already at the beginning
of a civil war, no doubt about it. They (Hamas) are accumulating weapons
and a full-scale civil war can break out at any moment." The paper
cited Palestinian sources saying that Palestinian Authority chairman
Mahmoud Abbas "has notified the US, Jordan and Egypt that he is
preparing to take action against Hamas." And, asserting that Hamas
"are preparing for a war against us," Tirawi "forecasts
that the violence would begin in Gaza and spread to the West Bank."
Hamas leaders, including prime minister Ismail Haniyeh, have issued
strenuous reassurances that they will never allow civil war, even as
a Fatah-affiliated militia recently released a statement explicitly
threatening to assassinate them.
Let us recall that in last
January's legislative council elections the Islamic Resistance Movement,
Hamas, resoundingly defeated Fatah, the nominally nationalist and secular
faction founded by Yasir Arafat and which has dominated the institutionalized
Palestinian movement since the 1960s. Fatah, led now by Palestinian
Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas, was widely rejected for its corruption
and mismanagement of the Palestinian Authority which was founded under
the Oslo Accords in 1994.
Coming a week after more
than a dozen Palestinians were killed in fighting between Hamas and
Fatah followers, Tirawi's latest comments could be seen as laying the
groundwork for a full-scale and premeditated confrontation. A senior
Fatah "security source," probably also Tirawi, had already
told the same Sunday Times journalist last May that "[c]ivil war
is inevitable" and that "Time is running out for Hamas."
He warned that "We'll choose the right time and place for the military
showdown. But after that there will be no more of Hamas's militias."
Is that time approaching?
Abbas is being encouraged by his sponsors outside the country to take
on Hamas. Tirawi's warnings followed US Secretary of State Condoleeza
Rice's visit to the region which included a warm public embrace of Abbas.
On October 5, Reuters reported that militias loyal to Abbas are receiving
arms and training from the United States. "Expanding the size of
the presidential guard," Abbas' personal militia, "by up to
70 percent under a U.S. plan," the report stated, "has become
a central part of American policy since [Hamas] beat Abbas's Fatah in
elections and took over the government." This apparent encouragement
to resort to the bullet when use of the ballot failed to produce the
desired results is a direct contradiction of the simplest principles
of democracy, apart from its sheer immorality. This sounds bad enough,
but it also looks like a repeat of the strategy in Lebanon where western
powers apparently thought that Israel, as a local client state, could
be used to strike a lethal blow at Hizbullah. The human and political
results of that adventure, last summer's systematic Israeli destruction
of Lebanon, speak for themselves. This time, Abbas and his forces would
fill the role of local US client, and Hamas would be cast as Hizbullah.
The only outcome of such
a confrontation will be another orgy of bloody violence. And almost
certainly, support for Hamas would be strengthened, but among the Palestinian
people there would be only losers.
There is good reason to fear
that the moment is coming when this conspiracy will turn to the naked
use of armed force, as the campaign to overthrow Hamas has escalated
in stages. Just weeks after the January election, The New York Times
reported that US and Israeli officials met at the "highest level"
to plot the downfall of Hamas by "starving" the Palestinian
Authority. It started with the US-EU aid cutoff, ostensibly to force
Hamas to "recognize Israel" and "abandon violence."
(When it was elected Hamas had already observed a year-long unilateral
suspension of attacks on Israel, and its leaders strongly indicated
a willingness to reach a "long-term agreement"). Israel escalated
its military attacks on Gaza, killing and maiming thousands of civilians,
and destroying civilian infrastructure including the only power station.
Most Palestinians now face difficulties feeding their families. Israel
kidnapped eight Hamas cabinet ministers and a quarter of the elected
members of the legislative council, while Fatah leaders have continually
agitated against Hamas, including organizing strikes and protests by
Fatah loyalists among Palestinian Authority civil servants who have
been deprived of salaries by the very international siege that Fatah
leaders have winked at and even encouraged.
Efforts to bridge the political
impasse by forming a "national unity government" have also
failed because the Fatah election losers, backed by foreign powers,
are demanding that Hamas, the election winners, abandon their policies
and principles and endorse those of the defeated party. But none of
this has worked. Despite the punishment, Palestinians under occupation
are no more willing than ever to submit to Israeli tyranny: 67 percent
"do not believe Hamas should recognize the state of Israel in order
to meet international donor demands" even though "63 percent
would support a Palestinian recognition of Israel as a state for the
Jewish people after a peace agreement is reached and a Palestinian state
is established," a September poll by the Palestinian Center for
Survey Research found.
As violent incidents and
provocations by followers of both factions mount, Abbas is considering
other coercive means amounting to a coup: dismissing the Hamas cabinet,
forming an "emergency" administration, and dissolving the
Hamas-dominated legislative council to make way for new general elections
which can be postponed indefinitely or at least until a Fatah victory
can be engineered.
The danger facing Palestinians
is acute. But let us be clear: it is not a threat of civil war. Among
millions of ordinary Palestinians, whether under Israel's brutal occupation,
living as second class citizens within the "Jewish state,"
or in forced exile, there is no disagreement remotely great enough that
could get them to turn brother against brother and family against family
in a civil war. On the contrary, Palestinians are united in their understanding
of what afflicts them -- Israeli colonialism armed, backed and bankrolled
by western powers. The danger is of an armed coup staged on behalf of
these powers by a small minority, but which could drag more Palestinians
into internecine fighting whose consequences are awful to contemplate.
Perhaps the most serious
miscalculation Hamas has made is to underestimate the determination
with which the results of democratic elections will be undermined and
opposed if they do not suit the interests of Israel and other world
powers. The reality is that the Palestinian Authority is not and has
never been a government for the Palestinian people. The Palestinian
Authority receives western backing only to the extent that it directly
and exclusively serves their own and Israeli interests. It was designed
to protect the Israeli occupation against its victims; no one will be
permitted to turn it into a representative body that fights for the
rights and interests of Palestinians. To avoid the lethal trap that
is being set for them and the Palestinian people, Hamas will either
have to sell out or get out.
Hamas has done the right
thing by abandoning its campaign of suicide attacks on Israeli civilians,
observing an ongoing voluntary truce and embracing politics. It should
now abandon the effort to hold on to the wreckage of the powerless and
discredited Oslo institutions. Instead, it should turn its considerable
popularity, organizational skills and increased legitimacy into a full
fledged campaign of civil resistance, mobilizing together with other
sectors of Palestinian and global civil society against every aspect
of Israeli colonialism and racism. This is the only thing it has not
yet tried, and it holds out the best hope for a way out of the dark
tunnel.
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