Pakistan
Political Drama:
So Far So Good - For US
By M B Naqvi
09 October, 2007
Deccan Herald
Americans
have always had success in whatever they wanted in and over Pakistan.
Despite much ruckus created by lawyers and the civil society over the
election of General Pervez Musharraf for another term of Pakistan Presidency,
it has gone through. It was a cliffhanger even till the noon of Oct
5 on whether the elections will be held or the Supreme Court will give
a stay order.
In the event, just as the
apex court had tentatively permitted General Pervez Musharraf's candidature
against serious objections by lawyers, it allowed the holding of the
polling on Oct 6, though it put a limitation on this election: Election
Commission should not formally notify the results until it has finally
decided the case which it will start hearing from Oct 17.
It refused to stop the holding
of the election until the substantive issue had been resolved, of whether
General Musharraf in uniform could participate in a presidential election.
The victory in the polls on Saturday has been celebrated by Islamabad
as if it was total. Even so, this is pretty good going, especially when
the Americans see that Musharraf did finally bite the bullet and has
done a deal with Benazir Bhutto they had recommended.
Notwithstanding the intellectual
ferment in Pakistan against the Chief of Army Staff interminably occupying
the President's office it can only be an initial success for Washington.
The top judges' remarks show that they appreciate the sentiments of
the civil society and people in general on the subject. But their September
28 decision in which they permitted Gen Musharraf to contest the Presidential
election in uniform showed that what they do is not what they say.
True, the judges have said
that they have rejected lawyers petitions only on the maintainability
of the petitions; they have not foreclosed the subject, they will discuss
it later. But later means Musharraf will have donned the Presidential
crown and will sit on the top throne in the interval. He has the support
of the Army, civil bureaucracy, America and presumably also Allah. Would
not the Supreme Court, some weeks later, simply acquiesce in the reality
and not derail the whole system?
From day one, Musharraf has
got what he wanted. In this case he wanted to contest the election as
Chief of Army Staff for presidency: he has been granted his wish. The
challenges to the election have been rejected at the right time. He
had at great length and after much persuasion by the highest level US
officials promised to hang up his military fatigues after finally getting
elected. It will remain only a promise so long as the top court does
not finally decide. When will it finally decide who knows?
It is to be seen how Musharraf
manages his second wish that was never articulated clearly: holding
the general election at the end of the year while he is still the Army
commander. That meant he could "manage" the election results
as he had done in 2002. This was all the rationale for his wanting to
remain in uniform; he would then be able to command the secret agencies
of the Army and get the results of the elections as he desired. This
is a wide open question as to whether the US and Pakistan's top court
can actually oppose the idea.
Where do the Americans come
in and what moves them? The fact of the matter is that the Americans
are scared stiff about what is likely to happen in Pakistan if their
Musharraf project fails. They see the dark hordes of Islamic extremists
in the NWFP and Afghanistan joining together and converting Pakistan's
north west into a new Islamic state. The Americans clearly suspect that
there are political forces in the field that want to establish a Khilafat
in the area and which would later spread the sway of resurgent Islam
over many Muslim lands. Some of the elements in the Pakistan Army, the
Americans fear, are part of this threat. These elements are suspected
of thinking that Pakistan's leadership of a new Muslim Empire, with
its relative development and nuclear weapons would be a fitting complement
of this dream. However fanciful it may seem to people elsewhere, the
American experts appear to believe it to be a credible threat.
Factually the Americans made
efforts to bring about what has happened: a political deal with Benazir
Bhutto the Chairperson of Pakistan Peoples Party and Musharraf. The
Americans believe that this new expansion of the support base of Musharraf
will give them, Musharraf and the world a chance of preventing Pakistan
going the way of Afghanistan and worse. Some may wonder how have the
Americans acquired such proprietarial interests in Pakistan. It must
be remembered that ever since 1953, the Americans have been giving the
Pakistan Army military aid that has largely helped equip it.
They pretty much behave as
if they own the place. Whether the Americans will finally succeed in
rescuing Pakistan from the threat of Islamic extremism is a question
for which there is no clear answer.
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